Galway Hurdle 10-year-trends

Racecaller

Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle takes place on Thursday 28th July. A Grade A Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles, it is always highly competitive but it has been a good race for punters recently with 4 of the last 5 winners being very well backed.

Trends for past 10 runnings below:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-14
5yo: 3-8-49
6yo: 4-8-59
7yo: 1-9-46
8yo: 1-4-24
9yo: 1-0-8
10yo+: 0-0-8
Horses aged 5 or 6: 7-16-108
All other ages: 3-14-100

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-7 or more: 6-5-64
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 4-25-144
Horses carrying 10-7+ have won 6 of the last 10 runnings despite only representing approximately 31% of the total runner. They have also accounted for 4 of the last 5 winners.
Top Weight: 030066P002 (0-2-10)
Horses carrying a penalty (1-4-9) have a decent record, gaining 1 win and 4 places from just 9 runners.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 131 or higher: 2-3-31
Horses rated 120 to 130: 7-18-124
Horses rated 119 or less: 1-9-53
7 of 10 winners were rated between 120 and 130, though they represented almost 60% of the total runners, so that is hardly a strong trend.
In recent years it has swung towards higher rated runners, with 3 of the last 4 winners being officially rated 130 or higher.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts (exception was runner-up in previous year's Galway Hurdle on last hurdles start)
8 of 10 winners won or placed on their last hurdles start
10 of 10 winners posted their highest hurdles RPR on one of last two starts
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 15 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 times over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race worth 7 to 13K (but no higher)
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
5 of 10 winners had their previous start on the flat

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Overturn): PF02 (0-1-4)
Tree Care Hurdle winner (Oneeightofamile): 21 (1-1-2)
Three.ie Handicap Hurdle winner (Johnny McGeeney): 71300 (1-1-5)
Wellingtonbridge Novice Hurdle winner (Redera): 1 (1-0-1)
Ladbrokes.com H’cap Hurdle winner (Princeton Plains): 0040304 (0-3-7)
Grimes Hurdle winner (Captain Cee Bee): 662 (0-1-3)
www.thetote.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Jack Cool): 40P0 (0-1-4)
London Southend Airport EBF Handicap winner (Silk Hall): 06 (0-0-2)
Dolores Purcell Memorial Nov Hurdle winner (Oilily): 00 (0-0-2)
HotelMeyrick Novice Hurdle winner (Force Of Habit): 07 (0-0-2)
Gerry Igoe Land Drainage H’cap Hurdle winner (Redera): 05F (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Three.ie handicap hurdle at Punchestown, finishing 413
3 of 10 winners ran in the UAE Handicap at Curragh, finishing 436
2 of 10 winners ran in Ladies Derby at Curragh, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ulster Derby, finishing 52
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 20
5 of 10 winners had run in a flat or NH race at previous Festival

Trainers
Pat Flynn (1-1-2) has saddled Bahrain Storm to finish 1st and 2nd in the past 2 years.
Dermot Weld (1-1-13) and Noel Meade (1-1-18) have also both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Donald McCain (1-0-1) and John Kiely (1-0-2) have both trained the winner once in past 3 years.
Trainers who have saddled multiple placed runners in the past 10 years include Thomond O’Mara (0-2-3), Jessica Harrington (0-2-5), Dessie Hughes (0-2-5), Willie Mullins (0-2-5), Tony Martin (0-2-5) and Eddie O’Grady (0-2-6).
British based trainers (1-1-11) have gained 1 win and 1 place from their 11 runners.

Price
6 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) were priced 7/1 or shorter and came from the first 3 in the betting. However there have been some big upsets in this race too, with the other 4 winners going off at 16/1, 14/1, 33/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won the race twice in the past 10 years giving a zero level stakes return.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 or 6
• Carrying 10-7+
• Horses carrying a penalty do well
• Horses officially rated 130 or higher have done well recently
• Won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts
• Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
• Won or placed on last hurdles start
• Run in past 55 days
• Had prep run on flat last time (or finished in first 3 over hurdles)
• Previously run in no more than 15 hurdles (winning 2 to 4)
• Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)
• Ran at last year's Galway Festival

ft9

So who fits the bill?

sting60

ft9 wrote: »

So who fits the bill?

Gimlis Rock.I know some people got 20/1 now 12/1 best price.He has a great turn of foot but needs good or better going.The weather for Galway is promised very good .

Harry Angstrom

Will be interesting to see what the Turf Club stewards decide to do with The Real Article on Monday. Personally, I'd ban the horse from running for 42 days.

ft9

If they ban him they'l simply appeal and run anyway

Harry Angstrom

ft9 wrote: »

If they ban him they'l simply appeal and run anyway

I think I read somewhere that they might invoke some rule where they can ask the Irish handicapper to reassess him even though he didn't win last time. I think it will be a disgrace if he's allowed to run off his current mark. I wonder what the reception in the winners' enclosure would be like if they didn't take any action tomorrow and he ended up winning? Top Cees Chester Cup all over again maybe? Or will the punters just cheer through their pockets as he'll probably be a well-backed favourite anyway?

ft9

Cheer through their pockets I'd say, I really Hope he's banned and can't run, failing that, up his weight

ft9

Tweet from The Irish Field

The Real Article free to run at Galway after Referrals Committee decides not to proceed with today's case on technicality. More later .

FFS! The corruption continues

Harry Angstrom

ft9 wrote: »

Tweet from The Irish Field



FFS! The corruption continues

Unbelieveable.
I wonder if the poor mugs who backed it at Tipperary will get their money back on a technicality? :rolleyes:

ft9

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Unbelieveable.
I wonder if the poor mugs who backed it at Tipperary will get their money back on a technicality? :rolleyes:

Are you having a laugh? That would be fair, fairness doesn't seem to come into play in Irish racing

ft9

Overturn does not travel over for the Galway Hurdle.

Zarkandar

Ruby Walsh picked Bahrtain Storm for the plate on RTE today, he said he fancied Captain Cee Bee for this, horse should have too much class