What is this house worth

derealbadger

Opinions what is this house worth its the second one the maple 4 bed detached
http://www.daft.ie/searchnew_development.daft?id=6500
the estate is about 50% occupied

PoleStar

No matter what, any estate 50% occupied is a bad idea in the current market. Secondly, while they seem like nice houses, I would say still overpriced for location.

lomb

I wouldnt suggest paying more than 250 for the 'Oak' version. Even at that its toppy.

antiskeptic

derealbadger wrote: »

Opinions what is this house worth its the second one the maple 4 bed detached
http://www.daft.ie/searchnew_development.daft?id=6500
the estate is about 50% occupied

Do you mean now or in 6 months time?


If I was seriously considering buying a house I'd be guided by the fact that the recent Allsop auction indicates a 70% drop between peak and today.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=73218254

So. What would this house have fetched at peak - 70% and that would form the locus of discussion. It doesn't matter whether these properties are distressed now or not - which such a sluggish market, sales will be otherwise so slow that:

- distressed they will become
- devalued they will become as they deteriorate with time.

By buying at 70% of peak, you'll perhaps insulate yourself against serious negative equity at least for a while. If the seller doesn't agree, tell him you'll come back in 6 months and have your arm bitten off then.

derealbadger

thanks for the reply's but what i am looking for is what you would value them at today

RasTa

€120k in 2 years.

whippet

derealbadger wrote: »

thanks for the reply's but what i am looking for is what you would value them at today

If I was interested in that house and was prepared to live in a half built estate I would be offering no more than €125k ... but I would never consider buying in a half built, half occupied estate ....

Crazy Horse 6

150k and not a penny more.

Rasmus

I too would not buy a house on a half-finished estate. It just does not bode well. If you were seriously thinking of buying, I wouldn't even offer €120k.

The_Conductor

derealbadger wrote: »

thanks for the reply's but what i am looking for is what you would value them at today

At market peak the 'Oak' 5 beds sold for 400k
Recent auctions indicate a price fall of 68-75% from peak, for distressed property sales (and believe you me, if this isn't distressed- it certainly should be classified as such- a mile outside of Newbridge in a half built estate???)

So- I think a reasonable value in the current market is between 100 and 125k
Will they accept this? Not a snowballs chance in hell.

You actually have 3 ways of valuing this property-

1. what would it achieve as a distressed sale (the aforementioned 100-125k)

2. what would a bank panel approved valuer suggest its worth (this is very pertinent as it determines the maximum that a lending institution might be willing to lend towards the property)

3. As Publilius Syrus put it over 2000 years, everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it....... Whats it worth to you? Is there a greater value associated with renting for a few years, as interest rates are continuing the increase, and with the property tax, water rates and management charges- the indirect taxation on this property is going to be startling......???

The property may be worth more to you if you've immediate family and associations in the area already- whereas it would be a millstone to a young couple thinking of having a family (its too far out of Newbridge to walk anywhere, and in any event- good luck trying to get your kids into school there- I don't know if you've seen the preliminary CSO stats for the area?

antiskeptic

smccarrick wrote: »

At market peak the 'Oak' 5 beds sold for 400k

Which Oak are you talking about? The one's that are still listed at 400k or the higher end ones that are currently listed at 570k.

:rolleyes:


I shouldn't actually click on photos of these homes - the poverty of architectural skill involved depresses me. The aforementioned 570k (trophy) Oak has a floor space of 2540 sq/ft with a living room sized at "3.7m x 5.7m". That's a smaller living room than the one in my own 1000-odd sq ft house.

derealbadger

its the maple that im looking at

antiskeptic

derealbadger wrote: »

its the maple that im looking at

smccarricks argument still applies: ca. 70% off peak price for whichever house you want is the price people are actually getting distressed houses for these days. And these have all the hallmarks of distressed properties.

Higher 'what's it worth' values are possible however. Which one you choose depends on your own outlook. It's hard to argue for buying a house at significantly more than the least it can be got for though.


What was the Maple at peak?

Monty Burnz

150k, on a good day.

derealbadger

i know somebody paid 320k for one in November 10 and that was without fitted kitchen etc you are preaching to the converted here i am trying to explain to a sister exactly what ye are saying

Monty Burnz

derealbadger wrote: »

i know somebody paid 320k for one in November 10 and that was without fitted kitchen etc you are preaching to the converted here i am trying to explain to a sister exactly what ye are saying

Point her here, or even better, to www.thepropertypin.com.

That website has saved Irish people - and I'm not joking here - hundreds of millions of euro.

derealbadger

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Point her here, or even better, to www.thepropertypin.com.

That website has saved Irish people - and I'm not joking here - hundreds of millions of euro.

i know i love propertypin and daftdrop and all those im a bit of a property porn expert

Monty Burnz

derealbadger wrote: »

i know i love propertypin and daftdrop and all those im a bit of a property porn expert

Set her up with an account and get her to post her question on the Property Pin. They might open up her eyes a bit.

Icepick

Why do houses built in 2010 look like the ones build 50 years ago?
Do people actually like this look?

antiskeptic

Icepick wrote: »

Why do houses built in 2010 look like the ones build 50 years ago?
Do people actually like this look?

What options are there when you're mass producing something during a boom and finding buyers is like shooting fish in a barrel? Creativity and innovation cost and aren't going to happen on a large scale unless the government takes the opportunity. So you're left with:

- dull as ditchwater semi d's

- current modern using glass/steel/wood which are all going to date at the same time and look as dull as ditchwater in the not too distant.

- retro a 'classic' (often minus the expensive bits.).

The_Conductor

Icepick wrote: »

Why do houses built in 2010 look like the ones build 50 years ago?
Do people actually like this look?

You can design your own house exactly as you like- or you can choose an identi-kit house built to be least offensive (i.e. the lowest common denominator) to most potential buyers. If you're looking for your own individual touch- you're hardly going to be buying No. 47 out of 50 in a cul-de-sac?

derealbadger

House prices dropped by the greatest amount for two years in June, according to new figures from the Central Statistics Office.

Prices fell nationally by 2.1% in June, compared to a drop of 1.2% in May and 1.2% in June of last year.

In the year to June prices fell nationally by 12.9%, compared to an annual drop of 12.2% in the year to May.

The greatest drop in the month was in Dublin, where prices fell by 2.4% in June, a 12.6% drop on a year ago.

This means house prices in Dublin are almost 47% lower than at the peak in 2007 while prices in the rest of the country have fallen by almost 39%.

derealbadger

where do ye knowledgeable people see the bottom i know its a bit of an open ended question but how low can those hoses go

Monty Burnz

derealbadger wrote: »

where do ye knowledgeable people see the bottom i know its a bit of an open ended question but how low can those hoses go

No idea. But I wouldn't consider buying for a few years yet. Who is to say that prices couldn't fall by half again?

The_Conductor

Monty Burnz wrote: »

No idea. But I wouldn't consider buying for a few years yet. Who is to say that prices couldn't fall by half again?

This is roughly what the Economist suggested in their March summary of global house prices. We may have had significant falls, however there is the potential for at least as bad to come.......

We have been postponing property price falls by drip feeding property onto the markets- NAMA have not tried to offload apartment blocks, nor have the banks put any real effort into repossessions....... There is a school of thought that by limiting supply and credit- that somehow it supports the market- which is a very bizarre way of looking at things in my opinion. Sure- prices will appear to be reasonably stable- but its all a continuation of smoke and mirrors.......

Monty Burnz

smccarrick wrote: »

There is a school of thought that by limiting supply and credit- that somehow it supports the market- which is a very bizarre way of looking at things in my opinion. Sure- prices will appear to be reasonably stable- but its all a continuation of smoke and mirrors.......

It just means that instead of a sharp crash and a sharp recovery (sharper crash than we've seen - clearing prices could already be down 75%) by enforcing repossessions and not setting up NAMA (so all the developers properties were sold at the going rate), what they are doing is just dragging out the bust over a longer period, so we will probably see price falls for most of a decade, and then stagnation for another decade. If they just got the crash over with, prices might start recovering within a year or two from today, but that would be political suicide and politicians don't chose things for the common good in the long term that hurt them in the short term.

OfflerCrocGod

As has already been pointed out €100K to €165 is the range and I would not take it for anything above ~€130K.

Valuing houses should be based purely on rental income and nothing else.

OfflerCrocGod

derealbadger wrote: »

where do ye knowledgeable people see the bottom i know its a bit of an open ended question but how low can those hoses go

The property market is simply not a real market at the moment I would not buy until it gets back to reality that may take three or more years.

Idbatterim

I reckon those houses this time next year, will have dropped in value by atleast 5k per month, up to 10k conceivably!

celticcrash

399 thousand for the whole estate does not sound bad.

antiskeptic

smccarrick wrote:

There is a school of thought that by limiting supply and credit- that somehow it supports the market- which is a very bizarre way of looking at things in my opinion. Sure- prices will appear to be reasonably stable- but its all a continuation of smoke and mirrors.......

..until such time as the real floor (which is currently heading south) rebounds off the bottom and returns to take up the slack currently maintained by the smoke & mirrors floor. Presumably.

Perhaps the school in question realises that:

""It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary satisfying his addiction to property depends upon his not understanding it!"