Home and hosed, RJ's virtual €s dead certs

3.15 Fontwell Barbers Shop €20 at 1.56

The fitness and overall mood of Barbers Shop was a bit of an unknown to most of us before last Friday's race where he went off at a similar price in a similar race, albeit with less runners.

That race he won by 9l looking quite calm and relaxed and seemingly enjoying the experience.

The horse that was 2nd, Eleazar won off 125 over hurdles in May09 over a shorter trip, some of those in opposition today have a more credible CV in the hurdles sphere but as Hunter Chasers may or may not transfer that form.

Hills of Aran tired close home lto in a better race but had a run few weeks before that so how credible a case can be made against Barbers Shop today... there's 27lbs between them on ORs.

Barber Shop looks the winner to me if the run 9 days ago didn't have a negative impact, I wouldn't expect him to stroll home with 10l to spare but it shouldn't get too hairy either if a clear round is achieved.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.15 Fontwell Barbers Shop €20 at 1.56.....................

Won at 4/6 SP.

Betfair returns €10.64 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €13.33 profit

Banks

Betfair €973.05
SP €981.70

2.30 Leopardstown Pittoni €20 at 2.36

If in good spirits the 6yo Pittoni should take this, it's a weak race, a 12l victory over Donnas Palm in Oct and keeping within 3l of Oscar's Wells in Nov is a decent standard compared to the recent accomplishents of the opposition.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.30 Leopardstown Pittoni €20 at 2.36..........

Won at 6/5 SP, Barry dismounted after crossing the line, I hope Pittoni is ok after that run. Was a decent performance considering the adjusted ratings, only had a pound to play with compared to the 2nd, Won In The Dark, I tend to favour the rating over the weight though, 6/5 was woeful value though as three of them were much of a muchness on the figures but this log isn't about value :pac:

Betfair returns €25.84 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €24 profit

Banks

Betfair €998.89
SP €1005.7

3.30 Leopardstown Donnas Palm €20 at 3.2

The only thing putting me off this one is the price, but as mentioned recently (very recently :pac: ) the log isn't about value or price etc etc etc so I'm ignoring the decent price, if Donnas Palm was evens fav I wouldn't hesitate in throwing it in here so in here it goes

Rated 9lbs higher than the fav, Slieveardagh and in my view more suited to the 17f trip Donnas Palm main worry here would be putting in a clear round, Paul Carberry in the saddle I see as a major plus.

In the hurdles sphere Donnas Palm finished 4l behind Solwhit in 2010 which isn't bad and has seemingly taken to jumping the bigger obstacles very well.

I don't see quite why Slieveardagh is leading the market over this trip, if it was 20f fair enough but it's not.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.30 Leopardstown Donnas Palm €20 at 3.2...........

Well beaten by the fav.
Banks

Betfair €978.89
SP €985.7

2.05 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre €20 at 1.91

Not much to say really, 9lbs clear on ORings and this one loves jumping and going fast

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.05 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre €20 at 1.91............

Won at 8/11 SP

Betfair returns €17.29 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €14.55 profit

Banks

Betfair €996.18
SP €1000.25

15th March 3.20 Big Bucks €20 at 1.63

Big Bucks has the guts of a stone at least in hand on the ratings over most of these, except for Oscar Whiskey, only 7lbs better than that one but Oscar Whiskey has never ran over the trip, now in fairness Oscar Whiskey has won twice at Cheltenham over 3f shorter, looking like another 3f wouldn't be a problem.

The first of those 21f victories at Cheltenham was when beating Get Me Out of Here by under 2l, rated 14 pounds higher and carrying 8 pounds more so 6lbs better off on adjusted figures.

Two lengths is fine all considered but I don't see the likes of that being enough to trouble Big Bucks, I wouldn't be surprised for it to look like Big Bucks might be in trouble at some stage in the race but I fully expect him to find more and more as required.

With Ruby dropping the whip last year Grand Cruz was beaten quite comfortably in the end and I don't see Oscar Whiskey or any other of the contenders being capable of beating Big Bucks this time round.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

15th March 3.20 Big Bucks €20 at 1.63.............

Won at 5/6 SP

Betfair returns €11.97 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €16.67 profit

Banks

Betfair €1008.15
SP €1016.92

Simple game :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac:

2.15 Kempton Quentin Collonges €20 at 2.04

This is bet 19 I think in this log (10 of the 18 previous selections have won), better start counting them before it gets too messy


Quentin Collonges is rated 134, 6lbs higher than Problema Tic and 12lbs higher than Round Tom, the 4th horse on the card is relatively inexperienced Leg Iron.

Quentin Collonges won a 3m beginners chase lto on similar ground, I reckon that was a better race than this one, the favourite was rated 132 and though admittedly carrying 5lbs more than Quentin Collonges was beaten by 11l.

Round Tom shouldn't be able to worry Quentin Collonges at all and Problema Tic is somewhat unproven over the trip, also the horse that beat Problema Tic lto, Pentiffic hasn't impressed since so the form line isn't strong imo.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.15 Kempton Quentin Collonges €20 at 2.04...............

2nd

Banks

Betfair €988.15
SP €996.92

Bet 20 Dressedtothenines 2.55 Lim €20 at 2.34, trip and ground to suit, has a few pounds to play with too, ground a huge factor in favour.


Bet 21 3.05 Navan Folsom Blue €20 at €1.88 Stays well, has a right few pounds in hand on paper.


In a hurry to less speel than usual :pac:

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 20 Dressedtothenines 2.55 Lim €20 at 2.34.........................
Bet 21 3.05 Navan Folsom Blue €20 at 1.88 ........

Both beaten...

Banks

Betfair €948.15
SP €956.92

2.40 Hexham Thelobstercatcher €20 at 1.83.
17lbs clear on the ratings from the 2nd fav, stays the trip and goes on the ground, jumping might improve from last run and if putting in a clear round should come home ahead of the rest.

3.40 Hexham Rival D´Estruval €20 at 1.6
Nothing in hand on adjusted ratings over the one contender but stays really well and anything close to the form of the October aintree HC win would be enough to take this.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.40 Hexham Thelobstercatcher €20 at 1.83.............

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

3.40 Hexham Rival D´Estruval €20 at 1.6.............

Won at 4/11SP

Betfair returns €11.40 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €7.27 profit


They were bets 22 and 23.

Banks

Betfair €939.55
SP €944.19

1.45 Aintree Simonsig €20 at 1.51
On the ratings has almost a stone on the nearest rival, more on the rest, recent rain won't have done any harm to chances either.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

1.45 Aintree Simonsig €20 at 1.51.........

Bet 24 won at 4/9 SP


Betfair returns €9.69 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €8.89 profit

Banks

Betfair €949.24
SP €953.08

Bet 25 3.25 Leopardstown Famous Name 1.99 €20.00

Rated 116 this CD winner carries 5lbs more than it's nearest rival in the market, the 108 rated 4yo, Sharestan.

Famous Name won this race last year and in 2010 off 117 but this is a much stronger renewal, however winning two years on the trot after the winter break is no doubt a point in favour of Famous Name here.

Famous name seems to be ground versatile so the good ground for today's race is no problem, Famous Name has won on soft, good, good to firm, soft to heavy, good to yielding etc etc etc etc etc etc

Sharestan has had three runs, two over 8f, winning both of them on yielding ground at the Curragh, the most recent was on the 25th March, winniing the WWW.THETOTE.COM IRISH LINCOLNSHIRE (a HC) impressively by almost 3l off 97.

It's not a two horse race but the rest don't appeal, neither does Sharestan truth be told

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 25 3.25 Leopardstown Famous Name 1.99 €20.00.........

Bet 25 Won at 9/10

Betfair returns €18.81 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €18 profit

Banks

Betfair €968.05
SP €971.08

So after 25 x €20 bets I'm down €31.95 at taken Betfair prices and down €28.92 at industry SP

It's going much how I expected tbh

Bet 26 - 2.15 Goodwood Vita Nova €20 at 1.49

Looks an excellent opportinity for this one, proven on the soft ground and over the trip. Only beaten time before last time out by Blue Bunting who was favourably treated by an age allowance and by the official ratings was 7lbs superior too. This is a much weaker race, Vita Nova won first time out last season so no concerns there either.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 26 - 2.15 Goodwood Vita Nova €20 at 1.49............

Won at 4/9 SP

Betfair returns €9.31 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €9.89 profit

Banks

Betfair €977.36
SP €979.97

3.45 Leopardstown Light Heavy €20 at 2.5

The market doesn't agree with me here, Wrote is currently the close to even money fav on Betfair in this 5 runner, Group 2 over 10f.

Light Heavy is proven over the trip, winning a Group 3 here a few weeks ago, Light Heavy has also came 2nd over 8f on soft ground on his debut, staying on very well close home.

Wrote, on form looks best suited on better ground over shorter so Light Heavy seems the obvious choice, admittedly there are 3 other horses in the market, Light Heavy has already beaten Tower Rock comprehensively and I wouldn't be the only one surprised if Hit the Jackpot or Calgacus won.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.45 Leopardstown Light Heavy €20 at 2.5....

Bet 27 won at 15/8 SP :eek:



Betfair returns €28.5 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €37.5 profit

Banks

Betfair €1005.86
SP €1017.47

Bet 28 3.40 Newbury Frankel €20 at 1.37

Nothing profound to say about this one really, has beaten nearest rival in the betting well in the past, on the official ratings there's 10 lbs between them tomorrow, a few of the rest have been beaten by quite a bit more. Frankel most definitely deserves to be in here :pac:

Bet 29 (will go off prior to bet 28 but I'm only keeping count for ROI purposes ) 2.00 Newbury Ibicenco €20 at 3.25.

Not an overly obvious selection but one I see as more than viable, on the ratings this six horse race has two horses who appear more likely to be involved than the rest of the field, of those two, Nehaam appeal.

The 13f trip should prove a furlong or three too short for Nehaam and the good to soft going should inhibit Nehaam finishing the race to the best of abilities.

Ibicenco should on the other hand find the trip and going ideal.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 29 (will go off prior to bet 28 but I'm only keeping count for ROI purposes ) 2.00 Newbury Ibicenco €20 at 3.25...............

4th

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 28 3.40 Newbury Frankel €20 at 1.37.........

Won at 2/7 SP


Betfair returns €7.03 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €5.71 profit

Banks

Betfair €992.89
SP €1003.18

Bet 30 4.05 Navan Fame and Glory €20 at 1.73
Has 10lbs minimum on the rivals for this on adjusted ratings, won this last year on seasonal debut too on an easier surface.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 30 4.05 Navan Fame and Glory €20 at 1.73....

Bet 30 won at 5/4 SP, huge price really.

Betfair returns €13.87 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €25 profit

Banks

Betfair €1006.76
SP €1028.18

Bet 31 3.50 Southwell La Estrella €20 at 1.61.

Course and distance winner in good form who meets the four rivals on good terms, of late La Estrella has been beating horses despite not being favourably treated on the official ratings, admittedly the opposition were in bad form.

Enroller and Dontpaytheferryman don't seem to be firing at the moment so they're not too hard to discount.

Jack Dawkins has the guts of a stone to make up and at 7 years old it would be a surprise if he did unless La Estrella has a bad curry tonight.

Aragorn Rouge is somewhat of an unknown in so far as he's stepping up in trip, may or may not see it out, more often than not 10/11f hasn't been finished off with conviction.

La Estrella looks fit to be in here