Archie's NFL/NCAA Log 2011/2012

Eire-Dearg

I never knew they were rivals, although WV sound like they would have enough to beat them anyways. I'm looking for a single in the early games for interest, am finding Clemson/Auburn a bit too close to all.

El Horseboxo

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Thoughts on West Virginia (-1) @ Maryland? It was +1 earlier in the week IIRC.

I took West Virgina at +2 during the week.

Eire-Dearg

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I took West Virgina at +2 during the week.

Nice. I took Auburn +4 in the end, now 7-0 up.

El Horseboxo

I got them at +3 the other day but they went to +4.5 before the game. Surprised to see Auburn get more than a field goal head start.

Eire-Dearg

Great hustle from Clemson to get back into it, gonna be a cracking half.

JohnnyRyan99

You afraid of the NFL or something this week!?!?

Peyton Manning

JohnnyRyan99 wrote: »

You afraid of the NFL or something this week!?!?

I'll throw them up later on, I actually placed them on Tuesday!

JohnnyRyan99

Tom_Brady wrote: »

I'll throw them up later on, I actually placed them on Tuesday!

Keeping the better odds to yourself eh

Peyton Manning

JohnnyRyan99 wrote: »

Keeping the better odds to yourself eh

Lol nah, just doing write ups is a chore! Ill throw up some right ups later but I went with 2 doubles of Steelers -14 / Chargers +7 and Packers -9.5 / Ravens -5.5. Only the Packers spread has changed in the mean time. Seriously thinking of going with Bills -3 and Lions -7.5 too but going to wait to see what the word is on Megatron first.

Peyton Manning

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Lol nah, just doing write ups is a chore! Ill throw up some right ups later but I went with 2 doubles of Steelers -14 / Chargers +7 and Packers -9.5 / Ravens -5.5. Only the Packers spread has changed in the mean time. Seriously thinking of going with Bills -3 and Lions -7.5 too but going to wait to see what the word is on Megatron first.

Right, time to get these write ups out of the way.

Seahawks @ Steelers (-14)
Chargers (+7) @ Patriots
5 pts @ 2.72/1

Basically I think the Seahawks will be drafting Andrew Luck come next year. Tarvaris Jackson is a terrible QB and he has little to "work with" in Seattle. The Seahawks are also travelling across the country to play an early game. In Pittsburgh. Against a pissed off Steelers. That includes James Harrison. I'm actually worried for the Seahawks, this could get ridiculously ugly. But even when you try to examine where this game can be won and lost - Steelers' o-line is questionable but that's okay because the Seahawks couldn't even record a sack against the 49ers last week. I have no idea how the Seahawks will a) stop the Steelers from moving the ball, and b) move the ball themselves. I think Pittsburgh covers easily.

The Chargers and Patriots promises to be the best game of the weekend, and is a prime contender to be a shootout. Both offences should put up a ton of points, and while I expect the Pats to win, I also expect it to be by no more than a field goal. This looks like it will go down to the final play, so there shouldn't be more than a single score in it. And given the Patriots tendency to go into prevent mode at the end of games (see what almost happened at Miami last week) the possibility of a backdoor cover is also high. As good as Brady and his offense are, Chad Henne put up over 400 yards against our defence last week. I don't think Philip Rivers will have much trouble. This will be a close one, so I like that the maximum single score available is the spread here.


Ravens (-5.5) @ Titans
Packers (-9.5) @ Panthers
5 pts @ 2.72/1

The Ravens just showed us that they mean business, like serious business. They demolished the Steelers last week, so how are the Titans supposed to stay with 6 of them? Tennessee struggled to move the ball against the Jaguars last week, they were terrible. The Ravens are rolling in on a high and should have no trouble moving the chains, especially Ray Rice who could well win offensive MVP this season. The Ravens are just better in almost every single area, they'll win by a minimum of 10 imo.

Clay Matthews will be going up against an undraft free agent rookie in Byron Bell this week. Most people know I absolutely adore Cam Newton, but Matthews will be in his face all day so I think the Panthers will really struggle. The Packers put up scores for fun, this could well be the biggest road blowout of the year. Im thinking they win by a minimum of three scores, and two of them will be touchdowns with the potential for many more. I'm worried about Newton

Headshot

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Going for a double of LSU (-3) and Texas Tech (-20) this weekend. Will have more doubles but getting this in early as the LSU game is tonight. Won't do a big write up as im posting from my phone but I just think LSU are too strong for Mississippi State who aren't a real contender. You can talk about the home crowd, the Thursday night audience etc. but truth is SEC teams get hostile receptions everywhere they go. This season is building up to the LSU - Alabama showdown in November and I don't see any other teams spoiling that. Also, LSU had pretty much an exhibition game last week while MSU gave their all and came up short against Auburn. Above all else, LSU's defence is the best in the country, and if Oregon can't run on them, then MSU will struggle too. LSU are a monster this year, I like them to cover comfortably.

As for Texas Tech, this spread is far too low. New Mexico have put up 13 points this year so far. Texas Tech are coming off a bye week and should dominate. Spread could well be -28 and I'd take it.

Will also be betting on Boise -20 and Wisconsin -16.5, more on those tomorrow.

Tom, thank you so much

Your some man for one man

CriticEyes

Cheers bud once again. You are a fecking legend. My losing streak recently has been wiped tonight. Had an awful day betting on the footy. You saved my ass. Cheers. Savage shouts!

Peyton Manning

No worries lads, as always - spend it wisely

CriticEyes

Tom_Brady wrote: »

No worries lads, as always - spend it wisely

DRINKS AND HOOKERS IN NEWCASTLE!! haha. nah heading over to see some friends in Newcastle in the next couple of weeks so its going towards that. Will really help. Cheers again.

Peyton Manning

What a day in college football, all 3 doubles came in

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Peyton Manning

Going to do do trebles here of anytime touchdown scorers just for fun, so not exactly tipping them to come in or anything like that.

JerMichael Finley @ 8/11
Aaron Hernandez @ 10/11
Jimmy Graham @ 6/5
0.5 pts @ 6.25/1 (Bet365)

Evan Moore @ 2/1
Ed Dickson @ 15/8
Brandon Pettigrew @ 6/4
0.5 pts @ 20.56/1

Headshot

Tom any tips for the matches on the 24th?

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

Tom any tips for the matches on the 24th?

Will have a couple up at some stage tomorrow evening man! Have tomorrow and all next week booked off work so been mad busy trying to tie up some loose ends before I go. That, and having no laptop is a bit of biatch lately!

Edit: I won't have any NFL tips this weekend either (probably a good thing considering last weekend!). I won't be able to watch any football this weekend so I'd rather let the games playout and see what I can take from it going into week 4 rather than throw on some interest bets. Won't be able to watch college ball either, but I can't give up on this hot streak! :pac:

Peyton Manning

This double includes an in play bet so getting it up quickly. I wanted BYU at -3 but I got the kick off time wrong. CF have the ball at the moment, hence BYU at +1.5 but it's still 0-0.

Central Florida @ BYU (+1.5)
Notre Dame (-7) @ Pittsburgh

My other two doubles for tomorrow are:

Tulsa @ Boise State (-28)
Florida (-19.5) @ Kentucky

and

Western Michigan @ Illinois (-13.5)
UAB @ East Carolina (-14)

Sorry, no time for write ups, Im being shouted at to turn off the laptop and can't even watch the rest of the BYU game. Women

Headshot

Wha-chu

stingerro

Boise State - what a disappointment :mad:

Headshot

stingerro wrote: »

Boise State - what a disappointment :mad:

ya gutted

El Horseboxo

Kellen Moore was pulled while 34-0 up early in the 3rd quarter. After that they began rotating the whole team and fell apart defensively. Had a good few 3 and outs when Southwick took over on under center. The game may have ended 48-7 only for Moore leaving the match. Changed the entire momentum.

stingerro

I'm even more disappointed now reading about it, as it was one of the strongest bets during the last few days for me :mad:. Damm.

El Horseboxo

Moore went out injured. Pulled is a bit vague. He was in a leg brace prior to the game. But he took one or two hits and they took him out as a precaution. It's a situation to look at in case betting on them next week because Boise are not the same team with Southwick at the helm.

Headshot

Tom/Horseboxo

any thoughts on the Washington Redskins At Dallas Cowboys match

El Horseboxo

Just seeing this now. I quite like the under 45. The Cowboys QB, Romo is playing with a fractured rib and punctured lung. He's gonna be targeted a lot of may not finish the game. He may also be a bit cautious and they'll probably run the ball more than usual. Which will be on the shoulders of Jones. Who is also injured and not that great anyways. Austin is also out which should reduce scoring opportunities. Bryant is playing but i think he's back sooner than he should. He's not 100%. Cowboys have a good defensive coordinator in Rob Ryan. So the the Dallas D can show up. I also like the Redskins to cover the +3.5. But not sure if i'm confident enough to take it.

Thing with the Cowboys. They're so unreliable. They could easily light up the board tonight.

Peyton Manning

USF (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh
Northwestern @ Illinois (-8)

USF are the 10th ranked team in the country in terms of points score, averaging almost 46 points a game. The beauty of this just how balanced this offence is - they're averaging 295 passing yards per game (while Pittsburgh are ranked 115th against the Pass in the country) and 229 rushing yards per game. I like teams that have a solid, balanced offence and QB BJ Daniels has accounted for 10 touchdowns this season, while his running back committee have accounted for 11. What I like most about USF in this match up is that Pittsburgh love to run the ball. This is a problem when betting on most favourites as it really eats into your teams time of possession, but that doesn't matter with USF. 12 of their touchdowns this year were scored in under 2 minutes from their first down of the drive. Pittsburgh's main weapon is Ray Graham who is the 8th leading rusher in the country, but USF are only giving up 2.7 yards a carry this year and keeping opposition teams to only 82 rushing yards a game, and they should put a big dent in his production. USF have also produced 13 turnovers this season, so Im pretty confident they outmatch Pitt here. They beat Notre Dame by 3, so I think they can do the same to Pitt.

People are still sleeping on Illinois, and are still over rating Northwestern. They proved themselves to me when they beat Arizona State in week 3 and they've got themselves a legitimate dual threat QB in Nate Scheelhaase. I'd like to give Northwestern some props, but fact is the only thing of note they've done this year is beat a vastly over rated Boston College (the same BC that lost to Duke). NW themselves went and lost to Army. That alone is enough to bet against them. I dont think the return of Dan Persa is enough to get them up for a Illinois side buzzing on being ranked in the top 25.

Toledo @ Temple (-8)
Baylor (-3.5) @ Kansas State

Temple are severely under rated. They're 3-1 this year, and have covered the spread on all four occasions. This is largely down to stud running back Bernard Pierce - who leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with 12 in 4 games (having added 5 more versus Maryland last week) and is 8th in the nation in rushing yards. Temple also has the best defence in the country in terms of points against, although the quality of opposition plays a big part. To me, this comes down to Toledo's ability to stop Pierce - or more specifically, their lack of ability to do so. They're giving up over 130 rushing yards a game, and I think Pierce will run riot.

As for Baylor, I'm just putting my money in Robert Griffin III's hands. I did it many times with Cam Newton last year and it nearly always came up trumps. Griffin is a phenom, and the big stat doing the rounds at the moment is that he has thrown more touchdowns (13) than incompletions (12). That's incompletions, not interceptions. I just can't get over that. Baylor score, and they score big. The 3rd highest scoring team in the country, with the 7th most passing yards and 15th most rushing yards. Yes, KS are unbeaten and have not conceded many points this season, but they have not faced a monster like Griffin and his co-stars on the Baylor offence. Also, Baylor beat Kansas State by 5 points last year, but 14 of Kansas State's points came on a kickoff return TD and a 67 yard TD pass to Daniel Thomas. Baylor also had an 82 yard TD run nullified when Jay Finley fumbled right at the goal line. I don't think Kansas are as good this time round, and Baylor are clearly better themselves - and Kansas will need an awful lot of the same luck as they had last year to be in with a shout. This is all about RGIII - he should cover this by himself.

SMU @ TCU (-13)
Georgia Tech @ NC State

Will update later this evening.


Redskins @ Rams (+2)
Steelers (+4) @ Texans

Saints (-6.5) @ Jaguars
Patriots (-4) @ Raiders

Will update NFL write ups later in the week, just didn't want to miss the above spreads which should move come Sunday.

Eire-Dearg

Illinois have gone up to -10. Would you still pop on it?