Archie's NFL/NCAA Log 2011/2012

Peyton Manning

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Illinois have gone up to -10. Would you still pop on it?

It would be a toss up between Illinois -10 or Wisconsin -10 at that stage. I'd side with Wisconsin simply because it'd be the game I'd prefer to watch

I'd be comfortable enough with Illinois though. Northwestern can't defend the run for their lives, and Illinois have a great ground game - 4 different players already have 200+ yards. Northwestern gave up over 300 yards on the ground to Army so Illinois could do serious similar damage. Should also eat up the clock keeping Northwestern's offence off the field.

Peyton Manning

Wisconsin -10 and Alabama -3.5

Stanford -23 and Washington +10

Peyton Manning

Typical, I research the first few bets pretty in-depth, and they fall flat on their ass. Then I just place those last 2 in a hurry in an attempt to salvage the weekend and they come in. Screw research, from now on Im just going with what seems obvious and too good to be true!

Starting Bank: 50
Current Bank: 67.9
Profit/Loss: +17.9

Peyton Manning

Baylor -15
Nebraska -11

Boise St. -20.5
North Carolina -13.5

Oklahoma -10
Temple -8

Texas A&M -9.5
Oklahoma St. -31

Peyton Manning

Just some log stats so far:

Starting Bank: 50 pts

Preseason: -6.5
Week 1: -10
Week 2: +6.4
Week 3: +30.4
Week 4: -15
Week 5: +20.8

NFL: -27.5
NCAA: +54

Current Bank: 76.5
Profit/Loss: +26.5 (+53%)

Needless to say, I'm not happy with my NFL record, but I'm thrilled with my NCAA one. Not sure if I'll bet on the NFL this weekend, haven't even looked at it closely yet. Happy enough with the above college picks though.

Peyton Manning

2 NFL bets this weekend:

Stevan Ridley TD
Jermichael Finley TD
5 pts @ 4/1

Greg Olsen TD
Kevin Walter TD
3 pts @ 5.23/1

Eire-Dearg

NFL has been a bit of a minefield this year betting wise!

Peyton Manning

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Baylor -15
Nebraska -11

Boise St. -20.5
North Carolina -13.5

Oklahoma -10
Temple -8

Texas A&M -9.5
Oklahoma St. -31

Just to go into some of the reasoning on a couple of these as I can't sleep...

Oklahoma (-10) vs Texas
Temple (-8) @ Ball St.

Oklahoma will be out to prove a point having seen LSU and Alabama over take them in the rankings despite not losing. They got a much needed confidence boost in destroying Ball St. last week, and it was also pretty much a week off such was the poor opposition. This team is still the most talented offence in the country, and I can't see Texas keeping up with them. Texas can't run the ball effectively, and their situation at QB isn't solid. Colt McCoy's baby bro Case and freshman QB David Ash simply don't have enough talent or experience to beat this immensely talented OU defence, and such is the ferocity of the Sooners' offence, that they won't game manage their way to a victory. This may not be covered mid way through the third quarter, but once the Longhorns figure they have to start throwing the ball is where I see Oklahoma pulling away.

I'm betting against Ball St. based on how awful they were against Oklahoma. I know it was a gigantic mismatch, but their secondary is so banged up that even a pretty anaemic passing game like Temple should have their way against them. Temple let me down last week, but Ball St. have injury concerns at both safety positions, with three players uncertain at CB. Still, Bernard Pierce is once again the key and I expect him to bounce back against a defence giving up an average of 33 points a game.

Texas A&M (-9.5) @ Texas Tech
Kansas @ Oklahoma St. (-31)

Texas A&M have given up two losses that they really should have won, so I expect them to bounce back this week against a Texas Tech team who haven't beaten anybody of note. Christine Michael showed last week that he's one of the best running backs in the country when healthy, so I quite fancy himself and Cyrus Gray to put up monster numbers against a terrible Tech run defence - A&M are averaging 5.7 yards a carry and 224 yards a game on the ground, while Tech are the 117th ranked rushing defence in the country.

-31 is probably the biggest spread I've taken this year or last, but I still think it will cover with ease because Kansas are terrible. They've beaten two teams this year - Northern Illinois and McNeese State. I don't have to tell you that means nothing. Georgia Tech beat them by 42 points, so Oklahoma State could easily beat them by 50+ if they wanted. Kansas are giving up over 40 points a game, and the Cowboys are averaging score over 40 a game, so this one should be a massive blowout. With old man Brandon Weeden throwing to the Calvin Johnson of the NCAA in Justin Blackmon, heck, those two could cover by themselves on a good day.

As for the others, dont have time to write them up but that's not to say I'm less confident of them. In summary, Robert Griffin III is mad, and you wouldn't like him when he's mad. He'll bounce back with another Heisman worthy performance. Nebraska are inconsistent, but inconsistent still trumps the plain old awful that is Ohio State. Kellen Moore - sorry - I mean Boise State should cover a simple three touchdown spread tonight - they do this all too often on the road, even if he is pulled from the game in the third quarter again. And North Carolina should cover a two touchdown spread against a vastly over rated Louisville side who are on the road.

stingerro

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Just to go into some of the reasoning on a couple of these as I can't sleep...

Oklahoma (-10) vs Texas
Temple (-8) @ Ball St.

Oklahoma will be out to prove a point having seen LSU and Alabama over take them in the rankings despite not losing. They got a much needed confidence boost in destroying Ball St. last week, and it was also pretty much a week off such was the poor opposition. This team is still the most talented offence in the country, and I can't see Texas keeping up with them. Texas can't run the ball effectively, and their situation at QB isn't solid. Colt McCoy's baby bro Case and freshman QB David Ash simply don't have enough talent or experience to beat this immensely talented OU defence, and such is the ferocity of the Sooners' offence, that they won't game manage their way to a victory. This may not be covered mid way through the third quarter, but once the Longhorns figure they have to start throwing the ball is where I see Oklahoma pulling away.

You are on opposing sides about Oklahoma - Texas with El Horseboxo (and he went large for Texas) and it doesn't happen too aften. It makes tailing you guys quite difficult

Headshot

tom what ya think of this double

Oklahoma State (-31.5)
Boise State (-20.5)

?

El Horseboxo

Not sure if you've already took the bet HS. But the Boise State one is a very good bet. After last weeks poor game against Nevada i can see Boise going all out on this one. They've a good record against Fresno too. As for Oklahoma St i wouldn't be too confident. I liked Kansas to cover back when the line was +34.5 during the week. Oklahoma St haven't won by 31 points so far this season. They could well blow out Kansas but i think they're eyes may be on the Texas game next week. So a backdoor cover could be possible.

Headshot

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Not sure if you've already took the bet HS. But the Boise State one is a very good bet. After last weeks poor game against Nevada i can see Boise going all out on this one. They've a good record against Fresno too. As for Oklahoma St i wouldn't be too confident. I liked Kansas to cover back when the line was +34.5 during the week. Oklahoma St haven't won by 31 points so far this season. They could well blow out Kansas but i think they're eyes may be on the Texas game next week. So a backdoor cover could be possible.

damn Horse I didnt go for that boise state bet and I was itching to because I won good money with them before but I wanted the advice earlier

I should get you and tom on quick dial

El Horseboxo

I would have seen your post before the game only that i went down to make an omelet. I took it for over 100 earlier but i never posted up any reasoning in the log. I can't see Fresno scoring much. An under play might be a decent enough bet. It's currently 58.5 with 7 on the board. Boise are driving and i'll consider taking what line shows up after that. Anything in the 60's and it's a good bet in my opinion. Boise haven't looked as ruthless in running up the score this year as in previous ones.

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I would have seen your post before the game only that i went down to make an omelet. I took it for over 100 earlier but i never posted up any reasoning in the log. I can't see Fresno scoring much. An under play might be a decent enough bet. It's currently 58.5 with 7 on the board. Boise are driving and i'll consider taking what line shows up after that. Anything in the 60's and it's a good bet in my opinion. Boise haven't looked as ruthless in running up the score this year as in previous ones.

What about -17 HT?

Eire-Dearg

Any particular game line that you'd see as a certainty for a single?

I'm thinking either RGIII or Oklahoma St.

El Horseboxo

stingerro wrote: »

What about -17 HT?

In what game?

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In what game?

Oklahoma State.

El Horseboxo

Oh right. You quoted the one just about Boise and was wondering why you posted it after the game. The only thing really holding me back about Okie State is the game against Texas next week. It's a Big 12 divisional game and If OSU find themselves up going into the third i think they will rotate their starters. Especially considering Texas are playing against one of their biggest rivals today in Oklahoma University which will take a lot out of them. OSU will know if they are fresh and healthy they will go into the game in a good position. I could be well wrong and OSU could blow Kansas out. But Kansas can score and i just fear the backdoor cover for such a high spread of 31.5. They very could well be winning by 3 TD's at the half. So that could be a good bet.

Peyton Manning

Horrendous backdoor cover by Louisville :mad:

El Horseboxo

Watching it. WTF kinda decision was that to go for it on 4th and 2 in the middle of the field. Punt and pin them down and get the shut out. I'm sick and tired of getting screwed by stupid coaching decisions.

UnitedIrishman

That was seriously frustrating. What sort of dumbass move is it to go for it on 4th and 2 in the middle of the pitch?

I'm all over Oklahoma St. now.

Peyton Manning

Would have guaranteed me profit for the weekend too. The joys of college football :rolleyes:

Annoying when I had it in a double with Boise. At least the Oklahoma/Temple double looks like coming in. Temple are straight up dominating Ball St. and up by 21 already and Oklahoma are annihilating Texas by 38.

Peyton Manning

Oklahoma State up 49-7 midway through the second quarter. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it's damn near cheating having to have college kids cover Justin Blackmon. He's Megatron v2.0.

stingerro

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Oklahoma State up 49-7 midway through the second quarter. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it's damn near cheating having to have college kids cover Justin Blackmon. He's Megatron v2.0.

I took them -17 to win at HT... unfortunately they are part of the double including Pittsburgh. So it's going to be difficult looking at Rutgers match.

Peyton Manning

Make that 56-7, tying a school record for most points in a half (could still get more!). Brandon Weeden pulled from the game already, not sure if he'll be back, but backup QB Clint Chelf throws a 24 yard TD on his first play.

El Horseboxo

Hope they cover for ya Archie. You really needed that number of points at the half to help out because i reckon they'll rotate heavily. I feckin hate backdoor covers with a passion.

Peyton Manning

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Hope they cover for ya Archie. You really needed that number of points at the half to help out because i reckon they'll rotate heavily. I feckin hate backdoor covers with a passion.

They've already pulled their starters. I've never seen a team at any level of football pull it's starters midway through the second quarter. Hopefully it's a case of these kids excited to have so much time to prove what they can do rather then getting garbage time at the end of games and expected to run out the clock.

Peyton Manning

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Oklahoma (-10) vs Texas
Temple (-8) @ Ball St.

Has to be the most convincing double cover in any bet I've ever placed! Favoured to win by a combined 18 points and they win by a combined 80 points

El Horseboxo

That's quite weird. Normally i'd expect it after a few plays in the 3rd maybe. Definitely looking ahead to the Texas game next week. Kansas looking like they'll have to score 4 TD's to cover. Can't see them doing that though. Starters or not.

Peyton Manning

...and so the inevitable backdoor cover begins. Oklahoma St. go 3 and out for the first time today, punt for the first time today, Kansas block the punt and go on to score a TD.

Edit: Or not. Now 63-14, this Clint Chelf kid doesn't look half bad a backup, which always helps.