Archie's NFL/NCAA Log 2011/2012

Peyton Manning

Backdoor covers are absolutely sickening. Chasing a profit now, so betting on the NFL despite saying I wouldnt.

Bengals -1
Giants -9.5

Lions -5
Packers -5.5

Titans +3
Buccaneers +2.5

Patriots -7.5
Vikings -3

Peyton Manning

That Pats/Vikes double and the Olsen/Walters anytime double looks to have another profitable week. Hopefully Packers/Lions do the business to pad it.

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Tom_Brady wrote: »

That Pats/Vikes double and the Olsen/Walters anytime double looks to have another profitable week. Hopefully Packers/Lions do the business to pad it.

Tom any advice for the green bay packers game? Iv some spare change to play with. Is it an over game or handicap?

El Horseboxo

For what it's worth as i've been crap lately. I'd be leaning over and packers to win by a TD. The Falcons will put up points in their dome. But the Packers with a healthy offense should put up more.

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El Horseboxo wrote: »

For what it's worth as i've been crap lately. I'd be leaning over and packers to win by a TD. The Falcons will put up points in their dome. But the Packers with a healthy offense should put up more.

Funny enough I went for overs

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

Tom any advice for the green bay packers game? Iv some spare change to play with. Is it an over game or handicap?

Sorry I missed this man, I don't get to watch Sunday Night Football anymore because of work

For what it's worth, I would have advised GB -5.5 as I had them in a double (posted on the last page). I don't go near overs/unders as I'm absolutely pathetic at forecasting scores. I earmarked a 20-10 victory for the Bucs yesterday - they ended up losing 48-3

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Cam Newton wrote: »

Sorry I missed this man, I don't get to watch Sunday Night Football anymore because of work

For what it's worth, I would have advised GB -5.5 as I had them in a double (posted on the last page). I don't go near overs/unders as I'm absolutely pathetic at forecasting scores. I earmarked a 20-10 victory for the Bucs yesterday - they ended up losing 48-3

Have you fallen out of love for Tom Bady now? lol

I was shocked last night of the handicap of-7 GB in the 4th quater. they were 8 points ahead and still give a handicap of that was really weird

**** odds of 1/2 but a win is a win

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

Have you fallen out of love for Tom Bady now? lol

I was shocked last night of the handicap of-7 GB in the 4th quater. they were 8 points ahead and still give a handicap of that was really weird

**** odds of 1/2 but a win is a win

Brady cut his hair, it will be a while before I forgive him :mad:

Peyton Manning

Starting Bank: 50 pts

Preseason: -6.5
Week 1: -10
Week 2: +6.4
Week 3: +30.4
Week 4: -15
Week 5: +20.8
Week 6: +26.1

NFL: Break Even
NCAA: +52.6

Current Bank: 102.6
Profit/Loss: +52.6 (+105.2%)

Great weekend after all, with the NFL giving me a big profit. The figures are quite amusing, as after this weekend I've broken even on NFL and the figures now indicate that all my profit has come from college football. Thrilled to have doubled my bank already, the voice of reason in me says I should withdraw my original bank and just play with my profit, but the gambler in me says.... naaaah, more leverage

Peyton Manning

Oklahoma State -7.5 @ Texas this weekend could well be my bet of the year. Incredible value, State win by at least double that imo. Will post up a proper write up tomorrow, but I'm in love with that spread.

Headshot

I miss Tom already :-D

Peyton Manning

You'll grow to love Cam. God knows everybody else has

Sky Sports 2 this Sunday if you want to see for yourself the kid who's revolutionising the quarterback position

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You and your split personalities

Some where in there is Archie trying to get out

Peyton Manning

Getting this double in now as I expect major line movement on both of these before the weekend:

Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ Texas
Georgia Tech (-7) @ Virginia

These are two spreads that just puzzle the hell out of me. Oklahoma State are the highest scoring offence in college football. They're averaging almost 52 points a game, with a whopping 431 passing yards a game to go with that. In Brandon Weeden they have a mature, efficient QB (he's 27 years old) who is completing over 75% of his passes and getting 3 touchdown scores a game despite being pulled at the end of most match ups. His favourite weapon is Justin Blackmon, the best receiver in college football and probably the best since Calvin Johnson. He has 6 touchdowns on the season, with 46 receptions for 534 yards. That's pretty damn good. Joseph Randle at running back is averaging over 5 yards a carry with 8 scores already. As we saw last week against Oklahoma, Texas just cannot cope with high powered offences and they don't come more high powered than Oklahoma State, who are practically coming off a bye week as they pulled their starters from the game last week in the 2nd quarter. That's unheard of, but hey, they were up by about 40 points at this stage. Texas meanwhile got slaughtered by Oklahoma, but I still really think this spread is over rating them. They're 4-1, but those 4 wins were against nothing teams (Rice? UCLA? Come on...). The only real test they faced, they lost by 38 points. If Oklahoma State can't cover 7.5, the world is broken.

Georgia State meanwhile are a ground and pound machine. They're averagine a phenomenal 360 yards a game, but also putting up the points to go with it which is the most important factor - they're the 6th highest scoring team in the country with 46 points a game. Their running back combo is on fire, both Orwin Smith and David Sims have an average of 450 yards EACH this season. Smith is clearly the more talented, as his 464 yards have come off of only 32 carries - a staggering 14.5 yards per attempt average with 8 scores. What confuses me the most is that Virginia went to North Carolina and lost by 11 points on 17th September. The following week, Georgia Tech hosted Noth Carolina and won by 7. That's an 18 point swing, and while GT had home advantage, I don't think that should factor into a spread as low as 7 this weekend. Virginia gave up 6.4 yards a carry to Princeton McCarty last week, 4.8 yards a carry to Perry Jones the week before and 9.1 yards a carry to Giovanni Bernard before that. They give up a lot of big running plays, so I fancy Smith, Sims and that cracking O-line to dominate this one.

Peyton Manning

An NFL double that I also expect movement on:

Cowboys @ Patriots (-7)
Texans @ Ravens (-7.5)

The Patriots with Tom Brady under centre typically dominate their last game before going into a bye week. Last year they went to Miami and won by 27. The year before, they went to Wembley and beat the Bucs by 28. In 2008, Tom Brady was missing so I'm discarding that. In 2007, they went to the Colts and won by 4 (covering the spread) and in 2006 they beat Miami by 10. Fact is, teams - especially highly organised ones like the Pats - hate losing before a bye week as you have a long wait before you can put it right. The Cowboys did that this month, suffering a big loss to the Lions right before their bye. Unfortunately for them, their opportunity to put it right happens to be against the most talented team in the AFC. The Cowboys are the top defense in the NFL against the run, but the Pats don't run the ball too much - they're the type of team who are content with 3 and 4 yard runs to keep defenses honest. It's Brady that does the damage and he just doesn't lose at Foxboro in the regular season, so I can see a similar scoreline to the Jets game last week with the Pats winning by 9+.

The Texans are without their star players on both sides of the ball - Andre Johnson and Mario Williams are both out this weekend. Williams will be out for the year and that's a huge blow for what Wade Phillips had in mind for his defence. They just won't be able to get anywhere near enough pressure on the QB with rookie Brooks Reed. The Ravens meanwhile have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Texans as they are coming off of a bye themselves, and will have known for those 2 weeks that Andre Johnson won't be on the field. Kevin Walter is inconsistent, Jacoby Jones caught the ball once from 11 targets last week and the newly acquired Derrick Mason is a) way past it, and b) expected to catch up with a new offence in a few days. Not going to happen. The Ravens are such a dominant defence that I expect Matt Schaub to have more turnovers than touchdowns. The Ravens have 6 interceptions, 8 forced fumbles (of which they've recovered them all), 11 sacks and 4 defensive touchdowns. While Arian Foster will obviously now be the main man in the Houston's offence, he had a poor game against the Raiders terrible run defence last week, and I really doubt he's 100% healthy. Besides, the Ravens run defence is one of the top 2 in the league. With them being at home, I fancy them to cover the spread early enough and not give it up.

El Horseboxo

Would you not be better taking the the Oklahoma St play as a single bet as well or instead? I had GT to cover the spread the past 3 weeks and they fúcked up them all with their stupid play calling late in the game. Actually i won one of them as i bought it down to -6.5 and won by .5 of a point. I was thinking no way they don't cover the spread 2 weeks in a row. Then it was no way it goes to 3 weeks. I like them this week and it's for the same reason. No way it's 4 weeks in a row for a team of their caliber not to cover the spread. I think they are being undervalued this week due to their 3 losses ATS. Bar a monumental fúck up i think they win by double digits this week.

Peyton Manning

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Would you not be better taking the the Oklahoma St play as a single bet as well or instead? I had GT to cover the spread the past 3 weeks and they fúcked up them all with their stupid play calling late in the game. Actually i won one of them as i bought it down to -6.5 and won by .5 of a point. I was thinking no way they don't cover the spread 2 weeks in a row. Then it was no way it goes to 3 weeks. I like them this week and it's for the same reason. No way it's 4 weeks in a row for a team of their caliber not to cover the spread. I think they are being undervalued this week due to their 3 losses ATS. Bar a monumental fúck up i think they win by double digits this week.

I just dont really like singles tbh, we all know the thrill of chasing a double or greater accumulator! I like this doubles system I'm using because the odds for a spread double will always be between 2.63/1 - 2.82/1 in most cases meaning that one succesful double will cover two failed doubles and still leave me with a small profit. Whereas with singles, one losing bet will outweigh one winning bet given that spread odds will nearly always be slightly less than evens. At the end of the day, I'm more confident in my ability to get 1 out of 3 doubles correct rather than 2 out of 3 singles, even if there's maths behind that which doesn't back up those odds. I know, if Im so confident of the Oklahoma St. bet then a single shouldn't matter as it should win, but I guess there's also the added ingredient of the thrill of a double/accumulator - when you have a good week using this system, it's a very good week.

El Horseboxo

Ah yeah i know it's a good way to cover losses or break even if your first 2 doubles don't come through. One winner can even put you in profit. Or a great amount of profit if all come in. I just meant for that one OSU bet since you said you loved it so much and it could be your bet of the year. You'd be sick if they won convincingly and the other game let you down. Good luck anyways. Solid double. I'll probably be on both singles or a double too.

JohnnyRyan99

Paddy Power offering Pats at -6.5 at the mo!

Peyton Manning

JohnnyRyan99 wrote: »

Paddy Power offering Pats at -6.5 at the mo!

Already locked in at -7. Not the line movement direction I was expecting! Probably sharps betting on Dallas

Peyton Manning

Bets for the weekend:

College Football

Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ Texas
Georgia Tech (-7) @ Virginia

Alabama (-25.5) @ Mississippi
Boise State (-32) @ Colorado State

Toledo (-7) @ Bowling Green
Colorado @ Washington (-14)

USC (-3) @ California (Thursday)
Clemson (-8) @ Maryland

Baylor (+9.5) @ Texas A&M
Michigan (+2) @ Michigan State

NFL

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots (-7)
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

St Louis Rams (+14.5) @ Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins (+7) @ New York Jets

Peyton Manning

Nice win by USC last night - I always tell myself I won't bet on Thursday night games because as part of a double, if it loses, it just ruins that bet for the weekend. Still couldn't resist them at -3 though, but probably the last time I'll bet on them for a few weeks as the injuries just keep mounting. Big game against Notre Dame next weekend.

Hey Cam. Which of the NCAA are you most confident about?

Peyton Manning

Deleted User wrote: »

Hey Cam. Which of the NCAA are you most confident about?

Given what the spreads are now I'd have to say Oklahoma State -7. There's been a lot of movement on the other spread I've taken that makes them less favourable if you're only betting now, but Michigan +3 and Oklahoma State -7 are the two that have moved in the opposite direction to how I thought they would.

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Georgia Tech in a bit of trouble it seems

Peyton Manning

Disappointing day to be honest, that Toledo push cost me a big profit, and it doesn't look like Clemson will bring in the second half of the USC double. Still, Boise and Alabama took care of business and salvaged a small profit, albeit only 2.7 points. Profit's profit though, eh?

Peyton Manning

A nonsense 1 point anytime TD accumulator:

Jeremy Maclin
Deion Branch
Danario Alexander
29/1

Peyton Manning

Cam Newton wrote: »

Disappointing day to be honest, that Toledo push cost me a big profit, and it doesn't look like Clemson will bring in the second half of the USC double. Still, Boise and Alabama took care of business and salvaged a small profit, albeit only 2.7 points. Profit's profit though, eh?

Oh me of little faith! Clemson staged a fantastic comeback and covered the spread - love waking up to news like that, seems like it was a cracker of a game too! Nice 20.9 profit this week so far

Starting Bank: 50 pts

Preseason: -6.5
Week 1: -10
Week 2: +6.4
Week 3: +30.4
Week 4: -15
Week 5: +20.8
Week 6: +26.1
Week 7: +20.9

NFL: Break Even
NCAA: +73.5

Current Bank: 123.5
Profit/Loss: +73.5 (+147%)

padraig_f

Good stuff, I followed your Oklahoma State pick, came in with a bit to spare.

Peyton Manning

Nice one padraig, gives you more to play with on the NFL today :pac:

Going to go for the following 2 unit anytime TD trebles aswell for kicks:

Wes Welker, Peyton Hillis & Fred Jackson - 2.56/1
Rob Gronkowski, Arian Foster & Jermichael Finley - 2.70/1
Dez Bryant, Greg Olsen, Jeremy Maclin - 9.39/1