Cattle prices - another price bubble ?

pakalasa

I Just read this;
http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/war-over-weanlings-sees-exports-collapse-2830974.html

"Exports to the main weanling markets of Italy and Spain are running 37pc and 46pc behind last year to date. While Irish beef prices are currently 15pc ahead of last year's levels, cattle prices in Italy and Spain have only risen by 4-5pc in the same period."

Can anyone make sense of this? Are cattle that scarce?
I also hear of hay making only 15Euro for round bales collected in the field.
I see a lot of farms around me, didn't buy their usual number of cattle this year. Loads of baled silage made though.

reilig

pakalasa wrote: »

I Just read this;
http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/war-over-weanlings-sees-exports-collapse-2830974.html

"Exports to the main weanling markets of Italy and Spain are running 37pc and 46pc behind last year to date. While Irish beef prices are currently 15pc ahead of last year's levels, cattle prices in Italy and Spain have only risen by 4-5pc in the same period."

Can anyone make sense of this? Are cattle that scarce?
I also hear of hay making only 15Euro for round bales collected in the field.
I see a lot of farms around me, didn't buy their usual number of cattle this year. Loads of baled silage made though.

I am very fearful that its just another price bubble. Factories have upped prices a bit and some have given guaranteed forward prices for late this year and early next year so finishers with these guarantees can afford to give that extra few quid for cattle. But when cattle numbers in the country increase over the next 12 months, there is only one way that the factory prices will go.

Exporters have been my bread and butter for the last few years. I have aimed my calves towards them, fed a good bit of meal and bred BB's specifically for the export buyer. While I'm still breeding the BB's, I'm not fattening them because there's more money to be made by selling them unfattened to the Irish factory finishers.

However, I do worry that if our exports fall too far, countries like Italy, Spain and the UK will look at other countries to get their cattle imports and "when" cattle prices fall here, we just might not be able to access these markets as easily again.

5live

pakalasa wrote: »

I Just read this;
http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/war-over-weanlings-sees-exports-collapse-2830974.html

"Exports to the main weanling markets of Italy and Spain are running 37pc and 46pc behind last year to date. While Irish beef prices are currently 15pc ahead of last year's levels, cattle prices in Italy and Spain have only risen by 4-5pc in the same period."

Can anyone make sense of this? Are cattle that scarce?
I also hear of hay making only 15Euro for round bales collected in the field.
I see a lot of farms around me, didn't buy their usual number of cattle this year. Loads of baled silage made though.

Yeah a neighbour is selling 4x4 bales of hay for 15 euro here as well. If it is a bubble then there are a lot of buyers going to be in big big trouble. Silly money being paid but thats the market price. My worry is next year when our normal buyers have gone elsewhere then who is going to buy our stock

bob charles

difficult one, there is no money being made on the shipping front as the outside price aint the greatest, also deadweight price is slipping. I hear mart managers blowing plenty of hot air regarding current prices, remember the guys giving these top prices have to make a shilling aswell. Im buying away but would have no interest in weanlings and these are overvalued in my book. Thankfully Im well up on numbers and bank account not too bad yet:D Anytime cattle are dear feeding is always cheap and vice-versa

nilhg

Where else are those buyers going to go?

A quick search on site like agrimoney.com will give you loads of stories like this,

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/rising-brazil-ranch-costs-to-keep-beef-prices-high--3231.html

Surely this is an opportunity for the beef fatteners/factories to build some sustainable relationships with customers abroad which might stand us in good stead in future?

Grecco

If prices fall its gonna have a real devastating effect this time.
Just look at the price of a bag of weanling crunch, or a tonne of fertilizer. On top of this diesel and contractor charges have risen as well. I`m afraid its gonna be a wake up call for everyone if it does happen..
This price boom is very dangerous in my opinion
It could finish a lot of farmers and contractors

leg wax

as far as i am concerned its a bubble that will popnext year when all the calves that were bought by silly irish farmers instead of been exported come on to the market , they will be under finished and the factories will tell them they have no market for fr.the dairy farmer is going to really fook up the beef he will keep the calves to use up all the spare milk, 2015 when quotas go the dairy men will then dump the calves and give them away.

flatout11

reilig wrote: »

However, I do worry that if our exports fall too far, countries like Italy, Spain and the UK will look at other countries to get their cattle imports and "when" cattle prices fall here, we just might not be able to access these markets as easily again.

your not the only one this is a genuine risk, if the export trade goes belly up weanling producers are in real danger..... how are farmers that are doing the buying justifying the prices they are paying at the moment?

Tipp Man

beef is going to be a lot dearer worldwide

Long term the price of cattle is very much upwards - there will be some ups and downs inbetween

The problem for farmers will be getting more money out of the increased revenues (the typical problem)

IMO that is

Tipp Man

yesman2000 wrote: »

bubble will burst april/may 2012

whats your basis for this hypothesis? (not saying your wrong just want to know your line of thought)

Birdnuts

According to Bloomberg today,cattle prices continues to rise in the US on the back of a poor hay harvest that has been battered by heat and floods!!

joeboard

Bubble? Talk things down anyway, some people can never be pleased, the mart prices are reflecting the extremely high prices being paid for fat cattle in the factories at the moment, all cattle that are being killed are leaving a lot of money especially the stores that were bought last spring 2010 when fodder was scarce and growth was also bad.
A farmer receiving €1500 for his bullock which probably cost around €600/700 has no problem spending €800/900 on his store this year.

Dont knock it enjoy it while it lasts!

pakalasa

Well, here are a few figures;

Irish Live Cattle Exports, Jan to 2 July (head)
2010 - 245,268

2011 - 144,439

That's a 40% drop in just a year. That tells it own story, and it's right across the board, not just calves.
From;
http://www.bordbia.ie/industryservices/cattle/Pages/LiveCattleExports.aspx

On the other hand here are weanling prices compared to Spain & Italy for this year and last. We are only catching up !!
Also from www.bordbia.ie

reilig

joeboard wrote: »

Bubble? A farmer receiving €1500 for his bullock which probably cost around €600/700 has no problem spending €800/900 on his store this year.

Dont knock it enjoy it while it lasts!

What will these farmers be getting in 12 months time?? Weinling heifers in a mart close to me that were 300kg were making Eur950. Weinling bulls that were 300kg made Eur1000 and up. What price will this leave store cattle at? Will the factories be able to pay high enough prices to justify the cost that the finisher has to pay for store cattle?????

Not knocking it. Just trying to keep my feet on the ground.

TUBBY

Jesus Reilig, what mart was that. i will clear the place out to it:D. Was it a Monday evening job in Longford

leg wax

if they are paying that now what will they pay when the sfp comes out.

reilig

TUBBY wrote: »

Jesus Reilig, what mart was that. i will clear the place out to it:D. Was it a Monday evening job in Longford

Granard and Elphin were the 2 that i was at this week and both had prices like that. Poor selling for any anything over 400kg (well they were making €1000, but a 300kg animal was making €1000 too). I'm not complaining. I have 60 weinlings to sell and if the prices are this good, the whole lot will be sold before the 1st of November. It will save on silage for the winter and I won't have to be buying ration at €280 a ton either.

Tora Bora

reilig wrote: »

Granard and Elphin were the 2 that i was at this week and both had prices like that. Poor selling for any anything over 400kg (well they were making €1000, but a 300kg animal was making €1000 too). I'm not complaining. I have 60 weinlings to sell and if the prices are this good, the whole lot will be sold before the 1st of November. It will save on silage for the winter and I won't have to be buying ration at €280 a ton either.

Time for lads to start doing accounts for this year, to project the potential tax bill due to much higher prices.
Then figure out a plan to reduce the tax impact:pac:

vanderbadger

reilig wrote: »

Granard and Elphin were the 2 that i was at this week and both had prices like that. Poor selling for any anything over 400kg (well they were making €1000, but a 300kg animal was making €1000 too). I'm not complaining. I have 60 weinlings to sell and if the prices are this good, the whole lot will be sold before the 1st of November. It will save on silage for the winter and I won't have to be buying ration at €280 a ton either.

jesus not easy keep 60 cows and calves in grass id say, do you split them into smaller groups? im in around 30 cow mark and I keep a few cattle as well, would prefer to keep more cows but I think i would struggle for grass and also managing more of them with work would be tricky

Dozer1

I think alot of suckler lads are thinking the same as you Reilig, sell everything they can and see how things are next Spring.

I'm selling a few heifers on Monday that aren't incalf reckon they'll make more now than in Mar or Apr next year.

Someone somewhere is going to take a big hit as always

reilig

vanderbadger wrote: »

jesus not easy keep 60 cows and calves in grass id say, do you split them into smaller groups? im in around 30 cow mark and I keep a few cattle as well, would prefer to keep more cows but I think i would struggle for grass and also managing more of them with work would be tricky

I have them in 3 groups and under 2 herd Numbers (Mr + MRS herd No. )

20 Black Limousins that I use AI on - mostly BB
30 Limousinx + Chaorlaisx + BBx cows that run with a CH bull.
10 in the Mrs' Herd that we use ai on. 4 are ped limousin.

Hard to keep grass in front of all, takes careful management. We have small enough of fields so we move them around regularly enough which means that fields can be eaten for a week and then get 3 weeks growth as opposed to some farmers who allow cattle to eat across their whole (or half) block at one time. Forward feeding calves through creep gates ensure that the calves always have enough anyway.

Wigster

This is a bubble and the goal post have moved. Every sector has increased from calves to stores to finishers. Know a guy who had finishing cattle. A few were not ready for the factory so he sent them to the Mart and ended up getting more for those at the Mart. Does this make sense?

Tora Bora

Wigster wrote: »

This is a bubble and the goal post have moved. Every sector has increased from calves to stores to finishers. Know a guy who had finishing cattle. A few were not ready for the factory so he sent them to the Mart and ended up getting more for those at the Mart. Does this make sense?

Choice stores made €900 with the weight in ennis last Thursday.

pakalasa

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

irishh_bob

to give you an idea as to how crazy prices are , my brother bought a saler bull at the end of april to run with fresian heifers , ( ped non reg ) paid 1125 for him , the bull spent 11 weeks with 25 heifers and as you would expect , lost a bit of weight , bull was sold a week ago and made 1285 in the mart , he made 160 euro in less than three months and managed to bull his brains out while he was with us

irishh_bob

Tipp Man wrote: »

whats your basis for this hypothesis? (not saying your wrong just want to know your line of thought)

with calf and cull cow prices having shot up this past year , might thier be a step away from using jersey among dairy farmers , while crossing with jersey has benefits , it ruins any chance of return from calf or beef cow sales

bob charles

Tora Bora wrote: »

Choice stores made €900 with the weight in ennis last Thursday.

Are you saying that there wasnt value bought aswell in Ennis last week in the other rings? The boys at this job constantly know the value of animals and thats what they are paying for them. There was serious value bought a month ago and who is to say that when we look back in a months time that we might consider this months animals good value aswell. Some of the farmer clients do seem to be paying way over the odds for animals alright but maybe they will be the cute ones in time to come. doubt it though

whelan1

Tora Bora wrote: »

Time for lads to start doing accounts for this year, to project the potential tax bill due to much higher prices.
Then figure out a plan to reduce the tax impact:pac:

yes tax man is going to be rubbing his hands this year:mad: teagsc talk the talk about profit but never mention what to do with the profit

whelan1

irishh_bob wrote: »

with calf and cull cow prices having shot up this past year , might thier be a step away from using jersey among dairy farmers , while crossing with jersey has benefits , it ruins any chance of return from calf or beef cow sales

did you hear any calf prices recently ? br/fr or angus - top quality of course:cool:

keep going

but is it the other way,around are cattle prices only on the way up to what they should be.personally i have always thought cattle prices have always been 4to 5hundred back of what they should be to pay for them selves.prices are going to fluctuate same as grain and milk,but now we seem to be very close to world market prices on alot of things. a little side story,i was talking to neighbour who buys high cell cows and puts calves sucking them then fattens them and he told me he bulled this years lot.i said he was wrong as there will be fr cows going for nothing next year. "yes" he said "but will i be able to get calves for them" and do you know he was dead right

keep going

whelan1 wrote: »

yes tax man is going to be rubbing his hands this year:mad: teagsc talk the talk about profit but never mention what to do with the profit

never had any problems dealing with big profits:rolleyes:

whelan1

just back from ardee mart , had 2 friesian bullocks in it weighed 550kg i got €850:eek::eek: would take a good few months feeding to finish them off.tbh they where screws:).. unreal prices there... saw an angus bull that we sold to a lad 5 years ago who weighed 950 kg sell for 1260!

jerdee

i swop two angus calves for a yearling heifer to a lad and she made 600 in mart two weeks later

also i bet that that angus bull did not cost much more five years ago.....

whelan1

jerdee wrote: »

i swop two angus calves for a yearling heifer to a lad and she made 600 in mart two weeks later

also i bet that that angus bull did not cost much more five years ago.....

ye the guy was smiling on the way out he also had a few of his offspring for sale too

jerdee

sure he will be lookin for a new bull .....and ya will know he can a go few quid more...

whelan1

jerdee wrote: »

sure he will be lookin for a new bull .....and ya will know he can a go few quid more...

have none ready for sale at the minute:mad:

jerdee

kinda in between time at the moment any isn t it

many coming for next season i have four yearlings should be well ready for next april although one lad had swollen belly one side all last year kinda gas you would get on friesans but was drinking the mother it settled down over the winter and he flying now hope it don t come back as he is very lenghty

.

pakalasa

John Shirley on beef prices
http://www.independent.ie/farming/beef/beef-in-a-new-era-but-euro420kg-still-a-challenging-goal-for-2012-2961314.html

Good article in yesterdays Journal too about the drought problems in texas, USA.

defadman

well if ye looked at the figures, the national kill rate is set to decline by a further six percent next year. prices expected to take big jump next year in the first of the year and is then going to level of. 2013 looks like a year where prices will stablelize due to increased calving rate this year.

pakalasa

I see in the journal that beef calf registrations are up 31% for the year to date. That's some increase in one year.

countygorey

IT is avery big increase looks like 2013 and 2014 will be difrent

Farmer Pudsey

pakalasa wrote: »

John Shirley on beef prices
http://www.independent.ie/farming/beef/beef-in-a-new-era-but-euro420kg-still-a-challenging-goal-for-2012-2961314.html

Good article in yesterdays Journal too about the drought problems in texas, USA.

Very intresting article to read now nearly six months later hard to believe we were thinking that cattle base would be at 4.2 eoro all spring what happened it averaged at around 4 euro or slightly less what will happen next year with kill of over 30,000 will the base be 3.5 or less ration is up by 30 euro/ton fertlizer ?? diesel?? plastic?? how will this affect price of silage and contracting
Be afraid be very afraid