Urban Sea's New Betting Log

You're just on a bad run, no way to eliminate them from gambling, only way is the manage them and stick to your guns, you'll get a lash of winners all at once in a while, as you know
Picking the winners is the easier part, the harder part is keeping the head during the losing runs.

UrbanSea

Thanks James.

Haha it's typical. One I fancied won yesterday but didn't do it cos of the bad run.

UrbanSea

Tadalivil 2.20 Ayr 12/1

Looks well handicapped in this race as competitive as it is. Was putting up some lack lustre efforts before finishing a good second in the Grey Horse handicap at Newmarket over 6 furlongs 3 starts back at big odds. Subsequently disappointed at Newcastle off a four pound higher mark but bounced back last time out when fifth,beaten around four lengths off a mark one pound higher than today's,when second at Musselburgh over 5 furlongs on good to soft going,same going and distance as today,in a valuable handicap,better than today's. Looks well handicapped on old form,he entered handicaps off a mark of 86 originally when with Mick Channon,and is a pound lower than his last win,which was around here over 6 furlongs,but has won over 5 off a mark as high as 72. Hasn't won in over a year but has solid each way claims here. Wide drawn but there's not much of a draw bias at Ayr,hopefully he turns up in good form today.

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Breakheart 14/1 3.20 Ayr

One of the horses that I have to back as I feel he has a win in him soon. Looks well handicapped judged on older form(running off a mark 0f 81,his last win came over course and distance 15 months ago off 77,although off much quicker ground). Doesn't seem to be one to put too much faith in at present however,and some below par performances have been shown this season,generally racing over 9 or 10 furlongs. However,his last run behind Taqleed off a mark 2 pounds higher is probably his best this season. I'd kick myself if I didn't back him today and he came good.Small each way stake.

Stake:10 each way

cardwizzard

Great thread. Just read it from start to finish. Like your angles on picking them. Healthy profit too, which is the name of the game. Nice work.

UrbanSea

Keys of Cyprus 4.50 Ayr 14/1

Pretty much the same story as Breakheart,if I missed this horse win life wouldn't be worth living. Has been incredibly poor this year,was rated 81 in April and subsequent performances have left him racing today off a mark of 69. It isn't all doom and gloom however,the horse was won twice over course and distance,the latest being 2 years ago,when he won off a mark of 74 on soft going. Hoping a return here can help,his only decent run this year came at Newcastle over 8 2 runs ago. Small each way here,just can't miss a race if he runs well.

Stake:10 each way

UrbanSea

cardwizzard wrote: »

Great thread. Just read it from start to finish. Like your angles on picking them. Healthy profit too, which is the name of the game. Nice work.

Thanks card. Profit was much better a few weeks ago,just hoping for a change in luck. Not necessarily expecting it today,two of my picks are just cos I'd be so raging if I missed them having backed them so often.

UrbanSea

Viking Rose 6.00 Pontrefact 16/1

Ever see a price and think you're missing something? That's me now. The most off putting thing about this filly is that she's drawn widest of all,but this race is over a mile,it'd be more of a worry over a sprint distance. She's been in cracking form in her last three races. She started her good run when runner up at Yarmouth on good to soft ground over this distance ,beaten a length and three quarters off a mark of 57.She went one better next time out at Brighton on good to firm ground like today(third won since). Followed that up with a close up third at the same track off a mark of 61.Comes in off this mark again and could go well. I'm amazed she's this price,forecast was 5/1.

Stake:20 each way

UrbanSea

0/2 so far.

UrbanSea

Profit of 245 today with Keys of Cyprus winning and the other placing.

Profit:762.77

cardwizzard

Viking Rose 3rd @12/1 SP. Have to confess I didn't see the race, just checked up on it. Well done, gets you out of jail for today.

Oops didn't see the winner. Even better

Derek!

Great work today Urban

Grand job :cool:

UrbanSea

Cheers boys,much appreciated. On the beer tonight.

x PyRo

Great work beautiful.

Keep her up!

UrbanSea

Thanks mate.

Must come up to Dublin some time soon,me you and Gav on the beer,he practically lives next door.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Double Cee 2.20 Beverley 3/1
Made a promising debut last month over 7 furlongs at Haydock when forth of ten,beaten around 3 lengths by a very well backed favourite (16/1 into 5/1). Was friendless in the market that day and went from 8/1 to 33/1 so did well to get so close,having been hampered about 3 furlongs out and coming home under a soft ride. The form of that race isn't working out too well,but he did have a horse in behind who finished runner up both starts since. This race today isn't particularly strong and has ran on good to soft so has a good chance here.

Stake:50 euro

Was tailed off last time out and that run seems too bad to be true. Goes in the first at Ayr and I'll give it another chance.

Double Cee 2.10 Ayr 14/1
Stake:10 each way

UrbanSea

Arganil 3.20 Ayr 25/1

Looks an impossible race to call but this is a horse I've been following for quite a while now ever since he won a Listed race at Dundalk about 2 years ago. Hasn't been in the best of form of late and has slipped heavily in the weights. He's won off a mark of 105 in the past but recent efforts have seen him slip to a mark of 84. He nearly took advantage of a low mark of 82 2 runs back when beaten a neck at Thirsk. Wasn't promising since and proves he isn't one to put too much faith in and has ran poorly here before but there could well be a win in him from a similar mark soon.

Stake:10 each way

UrbanSea

Namwahjobo 3.55 Ayr 20/1 Ladbrokes

The hardest race to call of the day and you know it when it's 8/1 the field. This colt is unexposed with just 6 starts to date. Followed up from his Redcar maiden win when winning over course and distance off a mark of 74. Did it very well that day,winning by 4 and a half lengths. Not so good in subsequent races off marks of 84 and 83. Handicapper is being slow to relent,he races off 82 today. That said his runs weren't devoid of promise and he gets a 3 year old weight allowance and could run well.

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Lana 3.00 Lingfield 11/2

Made a promising debut at Windsor over 5 furlongs and was noticeably short in the betting at 7/2 to finish second. Disappointed next time out when 6/4 favourite,not handling the firmer ground I think. This race lacks strength in depth and should be there or thereabouts.

Stake:20

UrbanSea

Lana and Double Cee lose.

UrbanSea

No joy.

Profit:672.77

UrbanSea

Ride the Wind 6.50 Wolverhampton 4/1

Not too much to say here. Race seems to lack a bit of strength in depth and this horse stepped up on all known form last month when beaten a short head over course and distance off a three pound lower mark. Was well backed that day and should take some beating here.

Stake:50 euro

UrbanSea

That was too bad to be true.

UrbanSea

I'm going to start posting some lays from now on too.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'm going to start posting some lays from now on too.

Good lad :cool:

UrbanSea

Passion For Gold 2.00 Newbury 8/1

I'm not losing faith with this fella yet. Unexposed four year old who looked a potential top notch performer at two,finishing third in the Beresford behind St Nicholas Abbey before hacking up in the Criterium at Saint Cloud on his final start at two. He beat a decent horse in Mikhail Glinka that day by 6 lengths,not bad for a group 1 on soft going.
Missed his whole three year old year before making a subdued comeback at Lingfield behind Sri Putra and Jet Away. Was a colt to take heed of next time out though,beaten Jet Away impressively in a Listed race.Took a backward step next time out in Group 2 company at Ascot,where he was never in the race and was clearly not himself that day,beaten around 90 lengths by Await the Dawn. Put a line through that race and he still looks unexposed and potentially top class. It'd have to be a weak Arc trial for Green Destiny to win it,this fella could have more in his locker yet. Is impeccably bred too,he has a nice American pedigree,by a Thunder Gulch mare who was a runner up in group 1 company. Could run well here.

Stake:25 each way

UrbanSea

Ancient Cross 3.20 Ayr 33/1

Was going to back this horse last week when he ran a big race at Donny when he was forth behind Nocturnal Affair,beaten under a length. He's a real genuine horse who tries hard in all his races. Comes in here tomorrow off the same mark and a repeat of that run should see him go close, He's versatile regarding trip and should see out the 6 tomorrow as he can stay seven.Should do his best tomorrow,whether or not that's good enough is another question in such a competitive race.

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Redact 2.30 Newbury 9/1

Looked a real smart colt first two starts,readily winning a Lingfield maiden before a Salisbury novice event in good style. Took his form to a new level when running a blinder in a hot sales race,beaten over a length into forth (13/2).
Ran a poor race last time out but was possibly unsuited by the course. Forgiving that rrace he has solid credentials here tomorrow,and the favourite looks a bit short to me. Nice each way price.

Stake:20 each way

UrbanSea

Passion for Gold is not one to put too much faith in.

Zafisio 4.30 AYR 25/1

Usually wouldn't have a chance against this crowd but the heavens have opened up and will love the heavy going. Could run a big race in these conditions,and is a group 1 winner in Germany on heavy going.

Stake:10 each way