Urban Sea's New Betting Log

UrbanSea

Posting my first lay.

Labarinto 3.05 Newbury 5.8

Looks a dangerous one to lay but I'm not a fan of Stoute horses in handicaps. A mark of 97 on on softer ground would be a worry for him today I think,and although he won a nice handicap last time out,he just about did it off a four pound lower mark and on much firmer ground.

Lay:20 euro

UrbanSea

Redact is second and the lay is good.

Ahzemaah 8.20 Wolverhampton 8.2 Lay
Lay:30 euro

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

...

Ahzemaah 8.20 Wolverhampton 8.2 Lay
Lay:30 euro

Well done, glad he was caught, fair pair of balls to have layed him at the price, he had stayed the trip well on turf, was tempted to back him, but it would have been bad form I think, you saved me a few quid.

UrbanSea

Profit:597.77

Cheers James,was a risky one alright.

UrbanSea

Lonrach 3.15 Fairyhouse 11/1 Skybet

Hasn't quite lived up to the promise she showed originally in maidens this year,first time out finishing 2 lengths behind the smart Raphael Santi at Gowran,before filling third spot behind Blue White Fire in her next race,who has been second subsequently in a decent Galway handicap. Got a rating of 74 following her maiden runs and ran third last time out in a hot handicap won by Secretary of State,beaten five lengths at Listowel. Down to a mark of 70 now and I can't have Legal Peace as favourite,having been beaten eight and a half lengths into second at Listowel.

Stake:20 each way

UrbanSea

Lonrach disappoints.

Tough as Nails 3.45 Fairyhouse to be placed lay 2.36

Rated highest of these and deservedly so.However,I don't think he got home over 7 last time out and doubt he wants it on soft ground today. He's a sprinter by the looks of it to me.

Lay:50 euro

UrbanSea

Profit of 10 on the day.

Profit:607.77

UrbanSea

Markazzi 3.50 Newmarket 20/1 SkyBet 6 places

Nicely bred gelding who hasn't quite lived up to early expectations in his career. Ran well first time out behind subsequent Breeders' Cup Juveniel winner Pounced before taking a nice horse in Sand Skier in a Leicester maiden at 2 years. Was well touted ahead of him being backed into a short priced favourite in 3/1 in the Tattersalls Million,well behind Oasis Dancer.

Hasn't been as good since,but was back to decent form the time before last,when winning a nice Haydock handicap,having ran well in two similar races at headquarters and Sandown. Ran a very good race last time out when fifth off this mark at York,beaten a little over a length having come from an undesirable position. Holds every chance here up in trip tomorrow,and could run a nice race.

Stake:20 each way

UrbanSea

Handassa 3.30 Gowran 8/1 Boyles

Only two bookies pricing up this race at the minute and can't see this price been around tomorrow,with Powers only going 5/1. She looked a filly to keep in your note book following a debut win at the Curragh last back end,where she landed some nice bets when beating the smart Deire na Sli by nearly 6 lengths,having been backed from 5/1 in the morning into 13/8 favourite. Next two races at three were a bit of a let down,while still running solidly. She was in warm order(11/4 fav) ahead of her forth in the Guineas trial,before finishing eighth in the Guineas itself,beaten 5 lengths behind Misty for Me. She stayed on well both days and should appreciate this longer trip in what looks a tough race to call.
I think the favourite looks far too short and is far too exposed for my liking. Handassa only beat Zaminast a short head in the Guineas trial,and the half sister to Famous Name could be a big danger.

Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

Sea Odyssey 3.00 Chester 10/1 StanJames

Nicely bred colt who's gone from strength to strength this season,breaking his maiden at Lingfield before winning next time out at Brighton,a well fancied 8/15 fav. Ran well off his revised mark of 81 when third in a good class 2 handicap at Ascot over 5 furlongs,and stepped up to six for the first time when not disgraced in a valuable sales race,beaten around 7 lengths by Reply. Races off 81 again today and drop back to five furlongs should be in his favour,and looks a big each way price.

Stake:10 each way

UrbanSea

A lay

Tenth Star 2.05 Newmarket Lay To Be Placed 3.75

Really don't fancy this fella. He's one of the few at Ballydoyle not owned by Coolmore,and was one of the less fancied ones when third on his debut behind Reply. His best run was second time out when beaten a neck by Zip Top. He then won a brutal Listed race at long odds on when there were just three runners. Was found out in a better race next time when beaten at 1/2 and can't see him making the frame here.

Lay:50

UrbanSea

**** **** ****. It was either back Daddy Long Legs or lay tenth star.

UrbanSea

Handassa was never in the race.
Sea Odyssey backed into 9/2 and beaten a neck.
Markazzi places,thank god. Would have been profitable if it wasn't for that awful lay.

Loss of 22.50 on the day,it could have been so much worse.

Profit:585.27

UrbanSea

Snaefell 2.40 Curragh 20/1 Boyles 5 places

Trailblazing veteran who really loves it around the Curragh,with 3 of his 8 career victories coming over tomorrow's course and distance of 6 furlongs,as well as another one over five. He hasn't won in over a year,his most recent victory been a course and distance win last August in the group 3 Renaissance Stakes. Now a seven year old,it's hard to say if he's as good as he was,but he has been running over seven the last few starts and that seems to stretch him,even though he did run a nice race last time out over 7 when beaten around 4 lengths behind Seeharn at Leopardstown.
That was off a mark of 97 and he races tomorrow off a mark of 95.but he looks well handicapped after been run over seven a few times. He started the season off a mark of 98 and could well be well handicapped tomorrow,as he won a course and distance handicap off a thirteen pound higher mark in 08. Obviously a lot can change in that length of time but is interesting tomorrow with Johnny Murtagh aboard who has won on him four times and Halford's horses are running quite well.

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Remember Alexander 3.10 Curragh 5/1

Has looked like one of the top fillies in Ireland this year. Was well backed and unlucky in running first time out when she was beaten two lengths into second behind Power. She disappointed next time when odds on at Cork,but made no mistake breaking her maiden tag in impressive fashion when running away with a group 3 by 4 lengths,with Tenth Star back in third who was second in the Royal Lodge yesterday. She found the Debutant Stakes too hot to handle,beaten over 4 lengths by subsequent group 1 winner Maybe. The slower conditions today should help as she did her best work near the end having looked a big caught for toe. She should run well even under a penalty,with Coral Wave winning impressively last time out but what was a very weak Listed race,with Rubina seemingly under performing and the favourite taken out. Princess Sinead could be next best.

Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

Guessing 5.25 Curragh 7/1

Doubt you'll find a better bred horse running all day. She's a three year old filly by Kingmambo out of Imagine,an Irish Guineas and Epsom Oaks winner. Bred to be very smart and starts off today over 10 furlongs. Her half brothers include the smart Viscount Nelson and Horatio Nelson. This maiden looks to lack some strength in depth,but Ansaab would probably be odds on if it wasn't for some of the Ballydoyle runners. Could run a big race,although it is disappointing that she's missed all of her classic season.

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Nothing from Sunday.

Profit:505.27
God I could do with a winner.

UrbanSea

I missed backing Thimaar today,****.

Some early ones for tomorrow.

War Artist 3.15 Ascot 5/1
Stake:30 euro

Miblish 3.00 Newmarket 9/1
Stake:20 each way

UrbanSea

Amerlia's Surprise 7.45 Wolverhampton 4/1 S.J

Unexposed filly who's just having her forth start tonight. Was weak in the betting and showed little on her only two year old start last October but showed much more when winning over course and distance first time out this year in April. Better form next time when winning a Lingfield handicap off a mark of 70 April back end in a race that is working out very well(beat Hurricane Lady by a head giving her four pounds,she's now rated 80 and has won twice). Forth has won 3 times since and is rated 73,and got a stone off Amelia's Surprise when she beat her. Can clearly go well fresh and should run a big race.

Stake:50

UrbanSea

God I feel sick. She was beaten a neck but would have won.

Had Up in my horse tracker to back next time out as down as a cert. She was 10/1 earlier on but was a reserve. Won at 2/1,I genuinely feel like crying

UrbanSea

Buzkahsi 2.25 Newmarket 20/1

Probably a silly bet to do but is an interesting runner. Ranvery well first time out at Newmarket when beaten 4 lengths by one of the best fillies of the year in Fallen for You when she attracted plenty of support. Was a short price favourite next time out at Leicester when beaten into fifth by My Queenie in what was an above average maiden for the track but she clipped heels and nearly fell and did well to run that close. Looks a nice each way bet,as Samitar isn't a filly I'd want to back at too short ads.

Stake:10 each way

UrbanSea

Colonial 3.25 Redcar 11/4

Has half of a length to find on Chilworth Lad tomorrow but is 4 pounds better off in the weights and this treble Listed winner in France was warm before the start last time out. Should run better tomorrow on better ground and he beat Forjatt in good style the time before that and better is expected,with Godolphin having a good record in the race.

Stake:40 euro

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

I missed backing Thimaar today,****.

Some early ones for tomorrow.

War Artist 3.15 Ascot 5/1
Stake:30 euro

Miblish 3.00 Newmarket 9/1
Stake:20 each way

War Artist:
Not quite the force of old but still a smart sprinter at 8,but is a group 1 winner in the past,and has already run well this season when landing a Meydan handicap. Has been running off five furlongs for the most part of this season and this is his easiest task to date this year,and is the best at these weights. Don't be surprised to see Rose Bonheur improve on her last run,that wasn't her.

Miblih:
Not a great season for Clive Britain but has come back well in the last few weeks with some big wins and this lad looked the part on debut last week when winning first time out in what could be a decent Newbury maiden as a strong 2/1 favourite,sticking to his task well out in front. Teofilo has struck me as a nice sire this year and this could be one of his better ones judged by entries in the Racing Post Trophy and the Dewhurst. Could run a big race,even if Entifhaadha looks smart.

d-gal

UrbanSea wrote: »

Miblih:
Not a great season for Clive Britain but has come back well in the last few weeks with some big wins and this lad looked the part on debut last week when winning first time out in what could be a decent Newbury maiden as a strong 2/1 favourite,sticking to his task well out in front. Teofilo has struck me as a nice sire this year and this could be one of his better ones judged by entries in the Racing Post Trophy and the Dewhurst. Could run a big race,even if Entifhaadha looks smart.

Supposed to be one of the best in the yard and top class, has tons of ability. Have a big bet on him, GL

UrbanSea

Thanks d gal,plenty of money around for it too now,11/2 best price.

UrbanSea

Dear lord. What a day and I don't mean that in a good way.Time for more lays me thinks.

UrbanSea

Dandy Boy 3.05 Tipperary 16/1
Stake;15 each way

UrbanSea

Dandy man doesn't go.

Thomasgainsborough 2.00 Tipperary 5/1

This fella really caught my eye last night but there were no prices up and I've missed the 8/1 that was available. Really nicely bred colt by Dansili out of a Saddlers' Wells mare that won a listed race over 10 furlongs. Struck me as Ballydoyle's first choice due to the booking of David McCabe,with the regular jockeys over in France. He has an entry in the Guineas and the Derby,and could prove to be very smart. Money talks with Ballydoyle and I wouldn't want to go against them. (He's as low as 11/4 with Boyles)

Stake:50 euro

UrbanSea

Well that lost too.

UrbanSea

Profit has plumetted to 295.

Astrology 5.00 Newmarket 2/1 Ladbrokes

My biggest bet of the year and the one I fancy for the Derby next year. Seemingly the stable second string when he won first time out in a Leopardstown maiden which form isn't particularly strong but acquitted himself really well next time out in the group 2 Futurity Stakes over an inadequate seven furlongs when he was short of toe,but ran a blinder to finish two and a half lengths behind Dragon Pulse,keeping on well when headed,but still did incredibly well to get that close,trading at 1.48. His pedigree screams stamina,with his dam being a group one winner in the Prix Saint Alary over 10 furlongs by Galileo. Big run expected

Stake:150