Tropical Storm Emily

maquiladora

000
WTNT35 KNHC 012330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY

---

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

redsteveireland

That's weird! Look at the post time.

eskimocat

Great minds think alike! :pac:

thetonynator

eskimocat wrote: »

Great minds think alike! :pac:

and fools seldom differ . . .:P

eilejh

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111285&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2180


lots of arguing here too lol

eilejh

For the more level-headed ones
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111286&start=1340

eilejh

Here's your Recon thread
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111297&start=200

maquiladora

redsteveireland wrote: »

That's weird! Look at the post time.

Thats what happens when you're following an Invest for days and it finally gets a renumber. F5 F5 F5 F5.....

Ah yes, the madness of armchair tropical weather watching.

maquiladora

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/020848.shtml?

200motels

It's a very quiet season so far for hurricanes, when does the season reach a peak?

gbee

According to accuweather, this season so far has been very active, July starts the season off but it's usually very quite, there have been 5 named storms this year so [Atlantic] so that's encouraging.

The season should vamp up rapidly form now one.

Iancar29

My friends are over in florida!... I just posted the link to them to make them aware... There gonna start freaking out now i bet even though i said chances of it goin hurricane strength is low at the moment.

maquiladora

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Emily has stopped to take a break and decide what to do next!
Big question mark over her track/intensity.

Wertz

Looking bad for Haiti if that track is accurate, especially if it's slow moving. Starting to get that "spiky" look that usually surrounds systems that go through fast development...

I've been watching a swirl of t-storms stream off the W Florida coast and flare up in the gulf S of Alabama/Lousiana since late sunday night...is this prone to development at all or is it just pure convection with no organisation?

As for slow season, we're now 5 named atlantic basin storms and it's barely august...statistically it's almost unthinkable that there won't be at least one major system impacting the E GoM/E atlatic coast this year...

maquiladora

18Z dynamic models take Emily over Hispaniola, through the Bahamas and recurves her before she reaches the US mainland.

Going to be interesting.

tomcosgrave

I see my post disappeared - and yes, I was watching it for days, waiting to post! ;-)

maquiladora

Emily is only barely hanging on to her Tropical Storm status.

Wertz

Two of the model tracks are taking it more westerly after it passes Haiti taking it toward W Cuba then into the gulf.



Looks more organised on the IR pic this morning than it did yesterday and a bit more forward motion too.

That t-storm region I referred to above blew itself out, but now there's another W of the yucatan moving N up the coast of mexico...this region has spawned waves in the past but they never tend to get much bigger than a depression.

maquiladora

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...STILL
EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...STILL
EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

Does ''disorganised'' mean it is ceasing to be a tropical storm?

Wertz

It's encountering some wind shear at higher levels blowing the top off the circulation and hindering sustained convection (no really high cold cloud tops). Also some dry stable air to the west of it.
Depending on how it interacts with land, primarily how long it's over the island it first hits, it may or may not dissipate. The shear is forecast to ease over the next few days but if it weakens before that, it may not matter. The surface low will probably remain though and may fire up again later...

maquiladora

Emily seems to be going a bit further west than forecast. She may have less land to cross because of this. Also, the further west she goes the less likely it is to miss Florida if she recurves.

All assuming she doesnt fall apart of course.

tomcosgrave

The last time a storm got ripped up going across Hispaniola was in 1993 (I think), so I'd guess this one probably won't - it will just weaken and then regroup - the question is, will it regroup according to what NOAA are suggesting.

maquiladora

NHC are sticking with their track. Remains to be seen if Emily will make that turn or not.

Wertz

This thing's going to have to make an almost 30 degree turn northwards to do what the NHC have down for it...the plot models that have been on the money so far are taking it transversely across the spine of cuba which would rip it apart. The IR image this morning is showing colder cloudtops and a more centralised structure, probably since it's stalled out off the coast of DR.
Must be lashing in Port au Prince.

maquiladora

Wertz wrote: »

Must be lashing in Port au Prince.

Indeed...

...AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI

Wertz

You can see the centre starting to make it's turn on the latest images...must be running up against a wall of stable air to the west. Still can't see how it can stay in the centre of the NHC prediction cone at this stage. US landfall as far west as the Keys if it keeps itself spinning, or east Florida at very least. In the menatime looks like the core is going right in over PaP...poor people in those tents

Iancar29

This still could go into the gulf if it doesnt catch the pull of the upper trough..

maquiladora

She's not lookin too healthy now.

I hope we get some more impressive TC's than Emily this season... :rolleyes:

maquiladora

RIP Emily!

REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

tomcosgrave

Wow - nearly 20 years since that happened!