Finding Value

longshotvalue

Might try a tread of not so long shots

Less picks and only higher class races.


6:40 Gowran

I think Paddy has the prices wrong on this race looking at the form Kirinda should be about 7/2 Fav, she was eyecatching at the curragh last time out in a similiar but better race. The Fav Bible Belt looks to me to be at about her max mark at 109, in winning that handicap at the curragh last time out, she just held on. I would be worred about Look at me on viewing that same race, but she may not be suited by the firmer ground. But i wouldnt put it past AOB to let this one get to the front and try to stay there and she may be difficult to catch. 8/1 currently looks 2 point too big. A lot does relay on the fact that Kissable is having her belated Seasonal Debut and may need the race, her 2yo form is the best in the field.

Im going for 3 Points Win Kirinda @ 11/2 Paddy Power and 1 Point win Look At Me 8/1 Paddy Power. Id be very surprised if they both dont go of shorter around 7/2 for Kirinda and 6/1 for Look at me.. I would have went EW on Look at me but its only 1/5th odds and thats crap enough..

thesandeman

Good luck with it once again B-)

longshotvalue

4:05 Salisbury

Anna Salai: On their running this year there is not a lot between The Fav and this one, particulary last time at Ascot the selection was eased well before Seta and there wasnt much between then in the end. Certainly not enough for the big differance in price. There is also the unknown of the step up in trip for both. Given all that 9/1 about Anna Salai, who is lightly raced in comparision and might have some improvement in her looks the value.

2 Points Win 9/1 Bet365 SkyBet Will hill

longshotvalue

4:15 Salisbury

Premio Loco: He looks to be the best horse in the race, but his current price might be an overreaction to he poorer last run at Epson. 7.4 on betfair looks a couple of point too big. He has been very consistant last couple of years and this race is well withing his grasp, especially on his 3rd in the Lockinge this year. Any

3 Points win 7.4 Betfair

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Newbury 3:05

Claremont: He has had a long break since Mayden, but that is probably needed . He has enough class to win this race and this looks about his right trip. In a race where there is nothing between a lot of the runners, he looks the value at 16/1 ew with Stan James. The older horses may have difficutly giving weight to the 3yo here but 16/1 looks 4 points too big. Brown Panther really could be better than his rating and its concievable that he is still a bit of value at 5/1.

1 Point ew 16/1 Stan James

longshotvalue

Newbury 3:40

Looking at this race, there are a few negatives against the fancied runners that might help find a bit of value. Delegator cant be trusted and the softer than good ground wont suit him. Dubawai Gold to me looks to be disatvantaged with a step back in trip the same can be said for Musir, Beacon Lodge doesnt look good enough to win the and 9/1 is hardly EW value in this race. There arent really any negatives about the fav Excelebration tough and he deserves to be FAV and will be hard to beat but 5/2 in this competative race doesnt look like a great bet.

With all that i have to find an outsider to be placed here and Doncaster Rover looks the one, his running in the Lennox and Goodwood was very good considering he was wide all the way and the first 2 in that race dont re oppose here. His second to Genki earlier this year over 6f on good to soft also looks good and 25/1 EW is certainly value. I have him more of a 16/1 Shot on that form.

2 Points EW 25/1 Various

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Ripon 3:30

Waffle: Ive been following him all year but he has been unlucky in running all but one time really ( which kind of indicates hes always going to be like that), his second in the Wokingham was really very good considering he was giving Deacon blue 2lbs, and with a good 5lbs claimer on today i cant desert him now. He is a group horse in the waiting and the soft ground will help.

2 Points win 12.0 Betfair.

Atlantic Sport : He has been running well of late without getting into the places but he is drawn in the middle here and hopefully can kick into the places here on softer ground, 33/1 looks good value for a top 4 form considering his solid form this year. He will be running on at the finish.

1 Point ew 33/1 Boyles Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

2:45 Newmarket:

Sunshine Always: was my pick in this last year and got backed and didnt get a lot of luck in running but finished 3rd of 1lb higher. He has been coming back to form and has had a similiar preparation as last year running over longer. Hell be ariving late on the scene and hopefully times it right. On betfair 32 win 6.4 place is definatly too big as he look in better form than last year judging by his last run.

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue

2:45 Newmarket:

Sunshine Always: was my pick in this last year and got backed and didnt get a lot of luck in running but finished 3rd of 1lb higher. He has been coming back to form and has had a similiar preparation as last year running over longer. Hell be ariving late on the scene and hopefully times it right. On betfair 32 win 6.4 place is definatly too big as he look in better form than last year judging by his last run.

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue

Newbury 2:00

Elna bright.. Looks too big is treated well and looked to be coming back to form last time.. Jm booked as well..

1 point win 12/1

longshotvalue

Not going great so far this tread

Deauville 2:55

Worthadd': The Lockinge Form behind canford cliffs is possibly as good as anything else in the field apart from Goldikova. He seemed to beat the rest of the field relativly easily. He does have form on soft ground albeit at a lower level than this. The ground might not suite Goldi and the selection looks the best value of the rest.

1 Point ew 14/1 Ladbrokes Boyles

longshotvalue

Sandown 2:15

Emerald Witness: Looks to have been given a shot by the handicapper here. He had a decent enough run over a trip too short after a very long break and ran well again next time out. the longer trip and softer ground shouldnt be a problem and his mark is down to 82 which seems to give him a great chance. 25/1 looks a good EW price for a decent Placing chance.

1 Point EW 25/1

Sandown 3:20

Raihana: Has had a decent break since mayden, and with Music Show gone this race could be well within her grasp. She has top class form on turf in Mayden and it wont be a 10/1 Surprise if she wins this. Trainer is well capable of getting her ready for this race.

2 Points Win 11/1

chester 4:45

Steed: Really looks a big price on betfair at the moment and has come down a few pounds after a poor couple of runs. Teh softer ground might not be a hinderance and the run at thirsk of a 6lbs higher mark would give him a shot of placeing here.. Betfair 60 win 17.5 Place

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

5:40 Cork

Blue Dahlia: she ran a great race last twice and to me looks to have a hell of a lot in her favour today. She is weighted to turn the tables on the front 2 in the market and last time against these 2 was on the wrong side of the track as well. I would have her as Favourite here. Her second last run in a listed race was exceptionally good in terms of this race and 13/2 looks Great Value. Im Tempted to have a decent bet.

4 Points Win 13/2 Various

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Hamilton 7:35

Becausewecan: He is back to the mark on which he won here over c&d earlier this year, and look to be getting back to form in his last run.Definatly shouldnt be one of the outsiders of the field. The softer ground shouldnt be any problem. Im sure hell be supported for this and 20/1 available at the moment wont last.

2 Points EW 20/1 Various

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3:40 Fos Las

Star Rover: Has been running well in general this year and his mark is set to go up a further 3 lbs after this race. His runs in 2 conditions races and a listed race lately and a good 6th in a very good York Handicap of only 3 lbs lower, make his mark here look very good, with the addtion of a decent 5lbs claimer no to offset the increase. In between those he won a 5furlong handicap at this course as well. 14/1 Available with Will Hill at the moment is at least 4-6 points too big and worth a bet.

2 Points EW 14/1 Will Hill

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Yarmouth 3:10

Steed: His last run at chester when i selected him at a huge price was eyecathing in a much better race than this, he got shuffled back on the inside, then blocked for room and bumped. He still finished reasonably well and that run makes his price of 25/1 look too big. He is back down to his last AW winning mark and if he is getting back to form he have a shot in this race. The ground is a bit of an unknown factor but its the same for much of the field.

2 Points EW 25/1 Bet365

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Goodwood 2:10

Having difficulty finding the winner of this but Swilly Ferry might just get back to form at a decent price. He is down to well below his last winning mark , has a bit of form on softer ground, and there is a lot of questions about this field today. a good 5th of 6 lbs higher in july showed he does retain some ability and the fitting of blinkers here is a plus. 12/1 with ladbrokes looks a bit of value.

2 Points win 12/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Goodwood 3:20

Ive had a look at this race a few times this morning, and its very hard to get a handle on it. Doncaster Rover did me a favour last week, but i think he is about the right price now at 3/1 and doesnt really represent value. The same can be said about the other 2 principles Hooray and Librano. Having a look again at the main 7f races this year Baltazars Gift hasnt really been too far behind these on a few occasions, and has less miles on the clock this year. In particular he never got any room in the Lennox Stakes and was eased when not getting there from last in his next race at Newbury. He did come into form at this time last year and looks a few points too big on betfair at the moment at 16.0. Ill go for a smal win bet at those odds as he's place odds dont look as attractive for value.

1 Point Win Betfair 16.0

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4:10 Ripon

Mirorred: Ive selected her a few times now and apart from last time she has looked like a winner waiting to happen. She has looked like the step up in trip wont be a disadvantage and altough the ground is a bit of an unknown, im not going to desert her now. Her last run nothing went right as she went down the wrong side of the track and was eased.

2 Points win 12/1 Various

longshotvalue

Ripon 4:45

Keys of Cyprus: He's a soft ground horse and is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. He has in the past come back from very poor runs to suddenly get going around this time of the year and hopefully today is the day.

2 Points win 14/1 Stan James