Tonight With Vincent Browne Thread v2.0

Skid

The Mitchell love in on the panel is pathetic , he is a dreadful candidate who loses votes every time he speaks.

Lady Chatterton

niallers1 wrote: »

I've just put 50 euro on him..

On who???

Skid

niallers1 wrote: »

I've just put 50 euro on him..

Fair play, If he wins I will humbly admit my mistake.

steelcityblues

Skid wrote: »

He has support, certainly

but do you really think he is over 30%, and that all the polls carried out, using proper quantitative statistical methods, which out him at 11% are completely wrong?

If you do, you should get down to Paddy Power where you can get 6/1 on McGuinness winning the Election.

These type of votes will never be 100% accurate, but if someone is that well ahead, then they are a serious contender at least.

Some people won't admit for voting McGuinness either, because of the traditional complex about being for SF down South.

Who cares about Paddy Power? They are just bookmakers.

Lady Chatterton

Marie Louise - Ger isn't a Mayo man, he is from Clare (unfortunately).

Jess16

Vincent has a serious soft spot for Marie Louise

Lady Chatterton

steelcityblues wrote: »

Some people won't admit for voting McGuinness either, because of the traditional complex about being for SF down South.

I agree completely with you Steelcityblues, I think he is going to be in the reckoning.

Corsendonk

MrsD007 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0205/1224289076550.html

It can't be that as the headline said he was claiming disability for 16 years whilst that condition was diagnosed 5 years ago.

Elmo

So just to get in on this whole EU Constitution issue, which has been poo-pooed by many (prob because Dana is making it an issue). However aside from that let me just point out that it took someone go to the supreme court to get us the ability to vote on EU treaties as far as the political elite are concerned this voting business is just a loop hole in the constitution. (Raymond Crotty, btw). One reason why Kenny doesn't want any changes to Lisbon.

And Mary-Louise suggesting at the end that it was Xenophobic or at least trying to suggest that being sovereign and independent is Xenophobic is just pure bull****, are we to consider that Tone or Parnell or Childers where Xenophobic?

Oh and I suppose I should Say hello again, I have being avoiding the new thread.

steelcityblues

MrsD007 wrote: »

I agree completely with you Steelcityblues, I think he is going to be in the reckoning.

Only thing that could scupper MMcG is the transfers. Could be leading after the first count, but then be overtaken by someone else. The likes of Louth, Cavan, Donegal, and a few Dublin constituencies he will come out first, I think.

Depends on the remaining media performances of himself, and the other serious contenders.

Lady Chatterton

I was very disappointed that Vinny didn't ask Mary Davis about Denis O'Brien. I felt that she was very uncomfortable on the LLS when Tub raised the issue. Vinny should have had another go.

Lady Chatterton

steelcityblues wrote: »

Only thing that could scupper MMcG is the transfers.

He might pick up transfers from Dana and David Norris supporters.

steelcityblues

MrsD007 wrote: »

He might pick up transfers from Dana and David Norris supporters.

Dana? Would that be for anti-EU reasons?

Lady Chatterton

steelcityblues wrote: »

Dana? Would that be for anti-EU reasons?

A few things really - protest type vote and both are Northerners. I also feel that a large chunk of Senior Citizens who have traditionally voted FF, will be inclined to vote for McGuinness this time around.

Elmo

Mitchell to get most 1st preferences followed by Higgins. Dana, Mary III and your man from Dragon's Den rule out after round 1. Round 2 sees Norris and McGuinness Exit. And like 1990 Higgins get past the post due to their transfers.

Just don't look into the camera Mitchell, advice from Brian Lehinan Sr.

steelcityblues

MrsD007 wrote: »

A few things really - protest type vote and both are Northerners. I also feel that a large chunk of Senior Citizens who have traditionally voted FF, will be inclined to vote for McGuinness this time around.

Interesting. I would have been inclined to think that older voters in general would stick rigidly to their FG/FF/LAB type voting patterns, and anyone over 50 would be unlikely to give McGuinness a first pref. Most of those before 'gen X', at least.

If you are right, then it certainly will be a defining, radical, election in the country's history.

Elmo

steelcityblues wrote: »

Interesting. I would have been inclined to think that older voters in general would stick rigidly to their FG/FF/LAB type voting patterns, and anyone over 50 would be unlikely to give McGuinness a first pref.

If you are right, then it certainly will be a defining, radical, election in the country's history.

I would say most older FF voters will split between Dana, Mary Davis and Your Man off Dragon's Den (He should prob get that on the ballot paper just for them). Or they may just go with Higgins.

I think it is funny that being a blue shirt is alright with The Star Editor. Too late to look up peoples names.

The reason Mitchell might top the poll in terms of 1st preferences is because of McGuinness and the staunch FG voter dislike of SF and FF. Then it is down to transfers and Its likely that those that give McGuinness a 1st preference will give Higgins No. 2 due to their staunch dislike of FG.

Lady Chatterton

steelcityblues wrote: »

Interesting. I would have been inclined to think that older voters in general would stick rigidly to their FG/FF/LAB type voting patterns, and anyone over 50 would be unlikely to give McGuinness a first pref.

If you are right, then it certainly will be a defining, radical, election in the country's history.

Yes, that is very true but there is no FF candidate so I reckon that older FF voters would prefer to vote for McGuinness than to vote for a FG or LAB candidate.

A Primal Nut

nummnutts wrote: »

Are they for real? The Star says Gay Mitchell?

That's fúcking hilarious. Colleran really should think about getting into comedy.

Ahh, he's a cock.

You really think Mitchell has no chance of winning? I think he has a decent chance.

Lady Chatterton

I reckon outside of Dublin, Mitchell holds very little appeal.

dave1982

Don't trust Mitchell one bit

Plautus

Elmo wrote: »

So just to get in on this whole EU Constitution issue, which has been poo-pooed by many (prob because Dana is making it an issue). However aside from that let me just point out that it took someone go to the supreme court to get us the ability to vote on EU treaties as far as the political elite are concerned this voting business is just a loop hole in the constitution. (Raymond Crotty, btw). One reason why Kenny doesn't want any changes to Lisbon.

And Mary-Louise suggesting at the end that it was Xenophobic or at least trying to suggest that being sovereign and independent is Xenophobic is just pure bull****, are we to consider that Tone or Parnell or Childers where Xenophobic?

Oh and I suppose I should Say hello again, I have being avoiding the new thread.

People are poo-pooing it because she's referring to the European Constitutional Treaty of 2004 which died a death during the ratification process in 2005. Dana is living in some alternate universe where this document is an item of European Law. It is not. No matter how many times she thumps her copy of it. Might as well be arguing against the Free State Constitution of 1922 for all the relevance this has. If she's referring to The Lisbon Treaty, better to refer to that. At least that would be an operative body of law.

As for Crotty v. An Taoiseach [1987], that was a mixed judgement for Crotty. He had also argued in that case that the Dail had no power to diminish its own competence (i.e. power to legislate) and delegate or devolve that power (such as to the European institutions.) The court disagreed and threw out that portion of the appeal. Where they did agree with Crotty was on the issue of substantial alterations to the working of European institutions (mentioned in 29.4.10) requiring ratification by popular referendum.

However, it is arguable just how much The Single European Act (the 1987 treaty which provoked Crotty's case) itself represented major alterations in the operation of the European jurisdiction.

In the event, every government since has hedged its bets by putting the matter to referendum even though certain treaties (such as Amsterdam in 1997) arguably did not represent changes so drastic that they required ratification by referendum. It would require a further test case to see precisely where the line is. Governments enter into international treaties which constrain their action and impose obligations upon them all the time without referendum (e.g. The Cluster Munitions Convention, etc.)

---

But! Long story short: Dana's scope for action is quite clearly circumscribed by 29.4.10. She knows (okay, that might be too generous) this. She can't do anything. At this stage it's purest pipe-dream stuff on her part.

ColeTrain

Jess16 wrote: »

Fianna Fáil took money, Sinn Féin took lives -would you rather be stolen from or slaughtered?

You seem to have a very simplistic view of what happened in the North when McGuinness was in the IRA.

It wasn't like it was now, that's for sure. Catholics didn't have the rights they have today.
It was an armed struggle, both sides committed atrocities.
The Queen's army has more blood on their hands than McGuinness but going by the media in this country, they seem to want to paint McGuinness as the devil. I'd love to see him win it to shove it down the throats of the likes of Brown and Mitchell.

dave1982

Elmo

also the blue set is much better then the usual chromakey set, looked far more professional then most night. yes i know its the midweek set.

Krusader

MrsD007 wrote: »

I reckon outside of Dublin, Mitchell holds very little appeal.

Don't think he has any appeal in Dublin either, maybe with the older generations thats it

Judgement Day

ColeTrain wrote: »

You seem to have a very simplistic view of what happened in the North when McGuinness was in the IRA.

It wasn't like it was now, that's for sure. Catholics didn't have the rights they have today.
It was an armed struggle, both sides committed atrocities.
The Queen's army has more blood on their hands than McGuinness but going by the media in this country, they seem to want to paint McGuinness as the devil. I'd love to see him win it to shove it down the throats of the likes of Brown and Mitchell.

You also seem to have a simplistic view of 'the troubles' and I wonder if you're old enough to actually remember them?

StephenHendry

Crosáidí wrote: »

Don't think he has any appeal in Dublin either, maybe with the older generations thats it

yeah not keen on him either. he is what i would call a 'safe' candidate , i would prefer to see mcguinness win but i'd say people are very reluctant to dismiss his past. didnt see the debate last night, i heard david norris didn't do well. the latest controversy with norris is that he was supposedly claiming disability allowance while being a senator a one stage

Storm 10

McGuinnes won because all of the twitters were Sinn Feinn, same as the Joe Duffy show recently in a text poll.

ColeTrain

Judgement Day wrote: »

You also seem to have a simplistic view of 'the troubles' and I wonder if you're old enough to actually remember them?

When you're trying to sum it up in a paragraph it does seem that way. Still, it's a a paragraph more than you've written.

I can't have an opinion because of my age? I'm 99, would love MMCG to win so I can receive €100 off him with a lovely letter that I'll frame.