Hurricane IRENE

maquiladora

Faolchu wrote: »

yeah but we also planned on doing a few days in Orlando which at the minute may still be in the path and our light is due to land in Orlando (MCO). I've been glued to the twitter fot NHC atlantic all through the night.

fingeres crossed she heads back out to sea

I don't think there is any model taking Irene to Florida now today. There was some new data injected into the models from data collected by a Gulfsteam jet on a special mission around the area. Since then all the models (afaik) have shifted east.

Keep your fingers crossed but at the moment there would need to be some dramatic changes for Florida to be in play again.



Trend continuing east with every run, if this keeps up for a few more runs then the US eastcoat will be safe.

tomcosgrave

NHC Advisory 13 is in. Looks like Florida is definitely out at this point and North Carolina will get the brunt - but it will still be a hurricane and will impact Virginia. Unless of course, the models pointing to a recurve out to see are proven accurate.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 231500
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE... WHILE
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTH.
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 77
AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS MORNING HAD ISSUES WITH THE ON-BOARD RADAR.
THIS REQUIRED A CHANGE IN AIRCRAFT AND THE NEW PLANE JUST PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTER...REPORTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB...ABOUT
THE SAME AS DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION.

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE
IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
INCREASES BY DAY THREE...RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TO WELL OFFSHORE...WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND
THE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
UPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE
THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE
200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 21.3N 72.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 22.3N 73.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 23.6N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 25.3N 76.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 29.2N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 33.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 37.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

maquiladora

Latest forecast track has shifted to the east again. The trend continues.

If you want to follow Irene to see how she is tracking compared to the forecast track go here :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

And tick the box Trop Pts box, this will overlay the current forecast points where her postions are expected to be.

Su Campu

This morning's official forecast has her making a second landfall in New York City on Sunday!

maquiladora

Eastward trend continues. Looking more and more likely that Irene will recurve out to sea. A huge change from only a couple of days ago when a Florida/SE hit looked almost certain.

sirpsycho

Clearly defined eyewall visible again in the latest image.

Keep this website bookmarked for tropical cyclones. Great site with the most uptodate images and data. (Click the various green/yellow/red boxes for different images).

dmaprelude

looks like Florida is safe bring on the holidays!

snowstreams

Irene is starting to look a lot like Earl from last year. It was forecast to hit the outer banks of north carolina and then make a second landfall near martha vineyard.
But it ended up going more and more east until it missed all of the coastal US and made landfall in nova scotia Canada.
It looks quite likely that the US coast will be lucky again, but it is still too early to tell.

maquiladora

Yeah its looking better and better for the US east coast as long as the trend continues and nothing happens that would send her more westward.

The Bahamas on the other hand are not going to be so lucky. I would not fancy being on those islands with a large, strengthening hurricane on the way...

maquiladora

Got to love the way Irene's eye suddenly wobbles to avoid the little island near the end of this loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

gbee

Almost like a live thing ... mad!

maquiladora

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...

Irene is now a major hurricane.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Got to love the way Irene's eye suddenly wobbles to avoid the little island near the end of this loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

The wobble is a great effect that land can hav on hurricances going at a such slow pace.
BUt to be honest it would have been better i think if the eye went fully over that island as the NE side winds of a hurricane are the strongest .( in the N. Hemisphere) If it had went directly over the island it would of been calm for a time.

I agree with other posts, resembles Earl alot. Cant see it heading into the Carolinas

Gandhi

PITA summer we've had over here. June and July were sweltering, and this August is already Philly's wettest August on record, and is .07 inches away from being Philly's wettest month ever (beating September '99 when Hurricane Floyd soaked the place). They are saying we could get another two inches of rain between Thursday and Saturday, and that is BEFORE Irene arrives on Sunday.

tomcosgrave

NHC Advisory 17. Irene will be a Cat 4 Hurricane in 24 hours.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS
MORNING. THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...AND THIS SUPPORTED THE
UPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE
THAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB. THE
PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE
TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE
THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL
MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS
AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA
CONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND
120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 22.4N 73.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

J6P

http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_20110824_IreneVideo.mov

maquiladora

Looks like Irene may weaken slightly and/or undergoe an eyewall replacement. So far she seems to be sticking pretty much to the official forecast track once you flatten out all the wobbles.

12Z ECM looks nasty but it's only one run.

maquiladora

Eastward model trend seems to have ended, for now at least. 12Z ECM and 18Z GFS have shifted west a bit.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Eastward model trend seems to have ended, for now at least. 12Z ECM and 18Z GFS have shifted west a bit.

Could be a trend wobble but definitely looking ominous for the Northeast at the moment. Worst case scenario would have it staying just offshore past North Carolina and smashing into the Long island area.

maquiladora

I think I've seen it all now.

The 18Z HWRF is showing the center of a very large hurricane Irene right at Long Island, New York, with a pressure of 932.



There's no way thats going to happen.

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

I think I've seen it all now.

The 18Z HWRF is showing the center of a very large hurricane Irene right at Long Island, New York, with a pressure of 932.



There's no way thats going to happen.

very ignorant question here maq but will this not happen because sea surface temps or just a bad model run

eilejh

Recon flying

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111529&start=900

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

very ignorant question here maq but will this not happen because sea surface temps or just a bad model run

I just think the model must be overdoing it. That is such a low pressure for a hurricane that far north.

eilejh

MEAN IRENE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

eilejh

Current pressure 953mb

000
URNT12 KNHC 250021 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/23:50:00Z
B. 23 deg 27 min N
075 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2684 m
D. 71 kt
E. 133 deg 52 nm
F. 212 deg 87 kt
G. 133 deg 47 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C / 3047 m
J. 16 C / 3055 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN ENE-SSW
M. CO14-64
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 87 KT SE QUAD 23:33:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 325 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

maquiladora

She is going to be huge.

maquiladora

Latest ECM has shifted the track further west.

North Carolina landfall as a major hurricane :



Followed by Cat 2 / Cat 1 storm up along the east coast...

Not good.

ninebeanrows

Hello all,

long time no speak and thanks to everybody for all there help on the forum like a dog to a bone i will be back in the winter and undeserving of the title moderator.

I am currently in Pittsbrugh, PA. And unintentionally planning to be in Boston on Saturday evening. The head in me tells me that this storm will disentegrate, but the heart tells me its my time to feel the wrath of a real hurricane.

Hoping you guys can keep me updated with track.

In 8hrs i head towards Buffalo/Niagra and then i move towards Albany Friday Night, Boston Sat Night.

As with all this hurricanes the further west the better, just like extras that hit into Ireland these things always veer east like ours always veer NW.

ninebeanrows

to all the reqs on here, i love the continous stats, this place has increased so much in quality since i began, it is jus crazy, u all deserve so much respect. as for IWO. Class. I cud only be jealous.

Weather is ****ing COOL in America, no reason why it can in Ireland, we get class weather all the time.

You guys do the work. At this stage i am a hop on.

Thanks to all. And youse know who ye are.

ninebeanrows

listening to WO channel. The NE will not have felt as big a storm in 20 years. sensationalism but fudge me what timing.

And right now CF is moving through with TS'sss