Hurricane IRENE

maquiladora

WC stay safe up there, this it starting to look like it could be an historic east coast storm.

Latest forecast discussion from NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is chilling :

THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches issued for the Carolinas now.

Min

What is the barometric pressure expected to be at first landfall?
I take it will still veer back out into the Atlantic and move up the coast and then making a second landfall somewhere near Long Island?

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

What is the barometric pressure expected to be at first landfall?
I take it will still veer back out into the Atlantic and move up the coast and then making a second landfall somewhere near Long Island?

ECM is showing it at 920 at Cape Lookout.

TheMilkyPirate

Even when the models were shifting east i had a feeling this monster was gonna slam into the east coast at some stage.

When is first landfall expected? Late saturday night?

maquiladora

Joe Bastardi is famous for always talking about the potential for dangerous east coast hurricanes.

As expected, he is really ramping Irene.

Track will be from Eastern NC to Albany in Saturday-Sunday period. This will join Hazel and 1821 storm as worst hurricane in mdatlantic
21 minutes ago via web

http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/106675314599530496

sirpsycho

Recon data for Irene:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Lirange

Weathercheck wrote: »

listening to WO channel. The NE will not have felt as big a storm in 20 years. sensationalism but fudge me what timing.

Might be a bit of over excitement in some quarters. This may have potential to cause havoc, but the mid atlantic and northeast of America are subject to the classic Nor'easters in Autumn and Winter. It seems unlikely this could match the worst of those. The "Perfect Storm" novel on which the film was loosely based was a 1991 Nor'easter. I'm assuming the man on the channel you're watching was referring to that when he mentioned the 20 year time frame. There have been strong Nor'easters since then though.

Irene careening into the outer banks and far east of North Carolina may be the best thing for the densely populated areas farther north along it's path. It would cause immense damage to the small beach communities there but it would accelerate it's weakening.

maquiladora

Lirange wrote: »

Might be a bit of over excitement in some quarters. This may have potential to cause havoc, but the mid atlantic and northeast of America are subject to the classic Nor'easters in Autumn and Winter. It seems unlikely this could match the worst of those. The "Perfect Storm" novel on which the film was loosely based was a 1991 Nor'easter. I'm assuming the man on the channel you're watching was referring to that when he mentioned the 20 year time frame. There have been strong Nor'easters since then though.

The highest sustained wind recorded duing the 1991 Noreaster was 75 mph, and that was 300 miles off the coast of Nova Scotia.

The current NHC forecast track shows Irene as a Cat 2 hurricane heading for Long Island. Cat 2 winds are between 96 - 110 mph.

Lirange

Nor'easters though are huge storms in terms of the precipitation/snowfall they cause so it's not just in terms of "sustained wind speeds" to measure "big" storms. Obviously a Nor'easter will not compete with the central rotation of a hurricane in that regard. Many of the "snowmageddon" blizzards that the eastern seaboard experiences are classified as Nor'easters. Last year's late December storm in NY/NJ/PA was classified as a Nor'easter.

maquiladora wrote: »

The current NHC forecast track shows Irene as a Cat 2 hurricane heading for Long Island. Cat 2 winds are between 96 - 110 mph.

If it's still a Cat 2 that is bad news. But that seems to be the upper end estimate of the all the model runs at the moment isn't it?

maquiladora

Lirange wrote: »

If it's still a Cat 2 that is bad news. But that seems to be the upper end estimate of the all the model runs at the moment isn't it?

Intensity still seems to be the hardest thing to forecast when it comes to hurricanes.

I always thought the NHC try to be conservative when it comes to intensity forecasts.

It will be interesting to see later today how she intensifies again after the eyewall replacement and then in the coming days how strongly shear might weaken her.

Tabnabs

The ISS is passing over Irene currently and took this pic

http://twitpic.com/6aphlb

:eek::cool:

Gandhi

Apparently the low-pressure area that comprises the thunderstorm that is bucketing down in Philly right now is effectively sucking Irene's path further inland.

maquiladora

Latest official forecast track has shifted west again.

Also not forecast to reach Cat 4 now.

maquiladora

A new article on Irene by Dr. Jeff Masters has been posted.

Some highlights:

Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk.

Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.

NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed.

Full article is here :

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1899

tomcosgrave

I think Dr. Masters can be summed up as saying - if you're in New England, run for the hills!".

maquiladora

12Z ECM takes Irene just west of NYC with the strongest winds coming in towards Long Island and NYC itself. Of course the storm surge could well be the more serious concern (check Dr Masters article on the previous page), and that would be an issue for the whole Mid Atlantic and New England coastal region of course.

TheMilkyPirate

Is there a chance it could strengthen more than forecast?

maquiladora

baraca wrote: »

Is there a chance it could strengthen more than forecast?

Intensity is hard to forecast. At the moment looks like she will stay at Cat 3 until first landfall. It is possible she could reach Cat 4 but no sign of it happening at the moment.

She will expand in size though.

TheMilkyPirate

maquiladora wrote: »

Intensity is hard to forecast. At the moment looks like she will stay at Cat 3 until first landfall. It is possible she could reach Cat 4 but no sign of it happening at the moment.

She will expand in size though.

Woah, Scary.

drkpower

Anyone know how this might affect flights in the NYC area?

I am due to fly in to NYC on Saturday evening @730pm. I know NYC is not due to be hit until Sunday morning but I'm wondering if there tends to be significant flight disruption in advance of the hurricane hitting, that moght have a knock-on effect for me?

Gandhi

Not sure of the exact source of this data.

ETA: That data originated from an online chat with meteorologists from The Weather Channel.

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/tropical-depression-nine-storm-hurricane-irene_2011-08-20

maquiladora

drkpower wrote: »

Anyone know how this might affect flights in the NYC area?

I am due to fly in to NYC on Saturday evening @730pm. I know NYC is not due to be hit until Sunday morning but I'm wondering if there tends to be significant flight disruption in advance of the hurricane hitting, that moght have a knock-on effect for me?

http://www.kristv.com/news/airlines-begin-canceling-flights-ahead-of-hurricane-irene/

Redsunset

Yep looking bad,they have announced a possible full shut down of New York's subway.

And this report,

Even before Irene's arrival, unrelated thunderstorms were causing delays of up to two hours Thursday at major airports in the New York and Washington areas, according to flight-tracking service FlightAware. The service's CEO, Daniel Baker, predicted that Irene-related cancelations would pick up Friday afternoon and become significant on Saturday.

maquiladora

Was listening to J Bastardi on NY talk radio. He's expecting Irene to hit N Carolina as a Cat 4.

Meanwhile...

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Thursday declared a state of emergency to prepare for the potential impact of Hurricane Irene

gihj

maquiladora wrote: »

Was listening to J Bastardi on NY talk radio. He's expecting Irene to hit N Carolina as a Cat 4.

Meanwhile...

Sensible stuff from Joe there.It is quite possible though doubtful Irene will hit North Carolina as a Cat. 4 however if it does hit ,regardless of its strength there is no way it will go as far as N.Y. as anymore than a Cat. 1 i would think.Serious amount of strength to be lost by then.

Redsunset

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P002YsXuR7Q

Vid i took earlier

maquiladora

Latest forecast track is slightly to the west again.

Hurricane Warnings are in for North Carolina now.

Hurricane Watches issued up along the east coast as far as NJ (so far).

NHC now expecting Irene to make landfall as a Cat 2, not Cat 3. Could change again based on what recon finds.

Redsunset

Evacuation of 750,000 people ordered in New Jersey

maquiladora

TWC are saying only 3 inches of rain would be enough to cause inland flooding in some Mid Atlantic / New England areas because the ground is so saturated. They are calling for rainfall up to 12-14 inches from Irene.

They are expecting "massive, terrible" inland flooding.

NIALL D

wow , this could turn out to be quiet devastating in places ..