Hurricane IRENE

eilejh

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 02:16Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 23
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Observation Number: 36
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 1:58Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°49'N 77°21'W (27.8167N 77.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 184 miles (295 km) to the ENE (65°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 128° at 99kts (From the SE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,445m (8,022ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,440m (8,005ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:25Z

eilejh

From the discussion boards..........


ConvergenceZone wrote:
If it is only a cat 2, that means it will probably landfall at NC as a Cat 1 and then hopefully just a tropical storm by the time it landfalls the 2nd time....


Airforce Met said in reply

Sorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.

This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting.

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees.

If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic.

MiNdGaM3

Irene has been strengthening overnight, central pressure down to 936hPa and flight level winds of 110kts have been found.
GFS 0z has a direct hit on NYC.

maquiladora

Irene hasn't behaved as expected overnight.

Her pressure has dropped, but her winds have not increased, still at 115mph on the latest NHC advisory. She is also not looking as healthy as she was last night. (Looks like she may be encountering shear to her north sooner than expected)

I think there is a good chance that Irene won't really get any stronger than she is now and we could be in for a surprise downgrade because the further north she goes the cooler the waters get and the more wind shear she will encounter.

Still though, time for surprises so who knows.

Edit : Remarks from recon....

BARELY HALF THE EYEWALL REMAINING. STRONGEST FL WINDS NOW ASSOC WITH SPIRAL BAND
WHICH MAY BECOME NEW EYEWALL.

So she is undergoing another eyewall replacement.

Edit :
Latest from the NHC is that she has indeed been downgraded to Cat 2 now. The track has also shifted a little to the east. Pressure hasnt dropped since the last advisory.

Reckless Abandonment

Hi all,
She is looking very sloppy now, no visible eye wall and slipping of to the east a bit, could miss the eastern sea board altogether,
Look like glancing blow would the most likely outcome


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-vis.html

maquiladora

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Hi all,
She is looking very sloppy now, no visible eye wall and slipping of to the east a bit, could miss the eastern sea board altogether,
Look like glancing blow would the most likely outcome


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-vis.html

Looks like she is in trouble alright....

pauldry

Yeah I think its all a storm in a teacup if you ask me

No chance of hitting New York IMO only windy and wet no hurricane.

But the remnants may reach us around Sept 3rd

mickger844posts

Joe Bastardi is having none of this downgrade. Seems to think it will ramp up again. If you have Twitter give him a follow. Some of his recent tweets.

People will get wrong impression. Watch the pressure and watch the eye next 24 hours as it comes into prime area for development!!!!

Please dont misunderstand this. The lower wind with pressure that low is the storm adjusting before tightening. Public should not let down

Warm water in the way and pics show spreading apart again of cirrus north of storm.. this is not done deepening Should get to 930 mb

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

Joe Bastardi is having none of this downgrade. Seems to think it will ramp up again. If you have Twitter give him a follow. Some of his recent tweets.

Joe has spent half his life talking about a big east coast setup like this. He's not going to downgrade his forecast in a hurry! :pac:

The window for intensifying is closing for Irene by the hour. Her pressure dropped last night but instead of that strengthening her, she has actually weakened and is now a Cat 2. Joe was calling for Cat 4 landfall, so she has a long way to go to intensify to meet his forecast, in a shortening period of time, and with no sign of it starting yet.

eilejh

5 AM NHC Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/260900.shtml

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALSYES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS ENCOUNTERING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT
CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND DRY AIR ADVECTING TOWARD THE HURRICANE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING....
AND INDEED THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY STRONG...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK ARE 28-29C. THIS SUGGESTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CATEGORY 2/3
BOUNDARY WHEN IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS...AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT. AFTER MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND...IRENE
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IRENE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS.

maquiladora

Recon has found 943, so a slight pressure rise. No strengthening at the moment anyway.

Edit : Up to 945 now

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...30.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Sulmac

Live stream of The Weather Channel:

http://www.justin.tv/weatherbroadcast#/w/1673003120/7

Seems to be a version localised to Norfolk, Virginia (in terms of 'Local on the 8s').

maquiladora

Weakening, not much, but still weakening.

11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 30.7°N 77.3°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb

IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

NHC no longer expecting Irene to regain Cat 3 status.

maquiladora

Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening. A 9:21 am EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall had collapsed, and the central pressure had risen to 946 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 125 mph, which would normally support classifying Irene as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, these winds were not mixing down to the surface in the way we typically see with hurricanes, and the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were just 90 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall.

With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1902&theprefset=BLOGCOMMENTS&theprefvalue=0

maquiladora

Still weakening.

2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 26
Location: 31.2°N 77.5°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb

No new tweets from Joe B? :pac:

Storm surge and not wind speeds will be the greatest threat anyway.

Mandatory evacuations now in NYC for all areas in Zone A.

http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/full/2011/08/25/150514-new-york-city-hurricane-evacuation-zones.jpg

DominoDub

Sulmac wrote: »

Live stream of The Weather Channel:

http://www.justin.tv/weatherbroadcast#/w/1673003120/7

Seems to be a version localised to Norfolk, Virginia (in terms of 'Local on the 8s').

This link is the main Weather Channel TV
http://www.justin.tv/weatherbroadcast#/w/1675821472

DominoDub

Just to get us boardies in the mood for this weekends storm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc-P8oDuS0Q

maquiladora

You live cameras from Myrtle Beach on here :

http://www.youtube.com/user/WPDENewsChannel15#p/l/KMTdcLiJ1uk

M.T. Cranium

My basic focus on this storm continues to be "close but not quite a major disaster" at least for NYC, NJ and the Mid-Atlantic states. The track seems likely to stay just far enough east to place all of those regions on the west side where heavy rain may be an issue but damaging winds and storm surge won't be that great.

The regions facing the stronger winds and storm surge would lie east of the track and that would mean a small part of NC, followed by eastern Long Island, Rhode Island and southeast MA. Here we may be dealing with some major damage especially to harbour and shoreline areas, for NC late tonight, and for the other regions Sunday (as the storm takes most of Saturday to move up the mid-Atlantic coast).

Rainfalls further west could be heavy enough to cause some flooding but this appears to be a fairly fast-moving storm by then and I don't see it as a worst-case scenario for VA, MD, PA or NJ -- but that's not to say one or two rivers might not overflow and cause a lot of flooding damage locally. Somewhere between major and minor flood potential so "moderate" would be the call here.

New York City will be in about the location that Cork might be in, should a similar cat-1 or cat-2 hurricane come ashore near Waterford from a SSW direction. I think that parallel would give you the idea of how the storm might play out in NYC and further east in Long Island. And then if you thought of Dublin being like Boston, and the track running northeast into Meath and Down, that would give a parallel for conditions later on Sunday into Monday in Boston.

I just hope the media don't pick this up and warn people in Wexford to flee from the coast. :eek:

maquiladora

MT, not sure if you've seen this yet, 12Z ECM is showing the center pass just to the west of NYC.

pimpy_c

maquiladora wrote: »

MT, not sure if you've seen this yet, 12Z ECM is showing the center pass just to the west of NYC.

I sure hope this isn't the route because I live right beside Pasipanny. NJ is in panic at the moment. All stores are sold out of water, batteries, flashlights and radios. Total pandemonium!

maquiladora

pimpy_c wrote: »

I sure hope this isn't the route because I live right beside Pasipanny. NJ is in panic at the moment. All stores are sold out of water, batteries, flashlights and radios. Total pandemonium!

No need for pandemonium but you should be prepared for whatever is being forecast. Just keep listening to the official forecast.

TheInquisitor

That ECM model couldn't be worse for NYC if it came off. It would mean severe flooding. Probably affecting their underground transport

Gandhi

TheInquisitor wrote: »

That ECM model couldn't be worse for NYC if it came off. It would mean severe flooding. Probably affecting their underground transport

They are assuming that. They are shutting down their subway this weekend, as is Philadelphia.

gbee

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I just hope the media don't pick this up and warn people in Wexford to flee from the coast. :eek:

Like they did for Hurricane Tomas last year and it still over 3,000 miles away in the Carribean!!!!! At the time, even before the remnants arrived, people were wearing I survived Hurricane Tomas T-Shirts. :rolleyes:

Min

The governor of New York has ordered a mandatory evacuation of 270,000 people from NYC.

lucernarian

Quite a serious step to take. All the while it does seem the hurricane is looking a little weaker than what previous forecasts were suggesting.

delw

Min wrote: »

The governor of New York has ordered a mandatory evacuation of 270,000 people from NYC.

for the first time ever :eek:,it might be a little weaker but sounds like they are not taking any chances

BailMeOut

Will Ireland be hit? If so when and and how much of it do you all think we will feel here?

M.T. Cranium

The ECM is definitely further west in its track than either the GFS or the GEM which has been doing as well as the two major models in recent months.

I am relying on two concepts in my forecast track, one being the tendency of hurricanes to stay over water unless forced inland, and the other being the phasing of the jet stream with the upper circulation of the storm which on the RGEM appears to capture the storm east of New Jersey.

But just as the models are split 2-1, the chances are probably one in three that the storm goes west of JFK (if not all of NYC). That would be high enough to light a fire under my seat if I were mayor of New York or one of his higher placed officials.

Anyway, from CNN and other sources, it's pretty clear that everyone knows that the situation is not carved in stone and they should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. The problem with that is, New York City's gain is Long Island's loss. We shall see.

Another factor worth noting is that Irene has a very large circulation. This will create long-lasting rainfalls in parts of NC and VA before acceleration begins, so that possibly the worst flood potential may be in central VA and MD despite the closer situation of NJ to the track.