Hurricane IRENE

delw

BailMeOut wrote: »

Will Ireland be hit? If so when and and how much of it do you all think we will feel here?

from SU Campu's forcast this morning
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971

OUTLOOK… It looks like the remnants of Hurricane Irene will end up as a depression somewhere southwest of Iceland, but there is some diffence of opinion between the models as to how strong this will be. This will have a bearing on what happens to the high pressure. It will most likely shift to our southeast, possibly allowing some increased cloud and light rain bands in later in the week, but time will tell.

maquiladora

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Quite a serious step to take. All the while it does seem the hurricane is looking a little weaker than what previous forecasts were suggesting.

Weaker winds yes, but Irenes huge size has already got the sea in motion, the storm surge will happen regardless now. The surge risk for this is rated 5 on a scale of 6.

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

Weaker winds yes, but Irenes huge size has already got the sea in motion, the storm surge will happen regardless now. The surge risk for this is rated 5 on a scale of 6.

they were just saying on the weather channel that the surface winds may be lower but upper winds will could still be 100mph& with the high rise buildings thats a real danger

murtle beach surge seems to be taken hold now maq,thanks for that link

tylercollins

Is there anywhere I can watch live updates online?

delw

tylercollins wrote: »

Is there anywhere I can watch live updates online?

theres links on previous page to the weather channel if thats any use

tylercollins

Thanks!

maquiladora

Is this the first ever Cat 1 hurricane with a pressure as low as 952? Very strange storm!

Just another example of how intensity is so difficult to forecast.

Still forecast to maintain hurricane status as she moves up the east coast.

Storm surge/inland flooding the main dangers from Irene.

Su Campu

Latest has it at 80 knots, and they say thet's even a bit generous. I think this thing will just end up one big rainy mess before reaching New England.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/270857.shtml?

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR DATA SHOW THAT IRENE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN THE RADAR DATA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF IRENE IS STARTING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUES TO OBSERVE 90-100 KT WINDS AT 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR HAVE ONLY BEEN 70-75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 952 MB.

maquiladora

Despite the weakening, Irene is still forecast to hit Long Island as a hurricane.

LAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRENE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE WITH A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW
ENGLAND. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE NEW
ENGLAND LANDFALL...WITH IRENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM 48-120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 34.1N 76.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 35.7N 75.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 38.4N 74.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1800Z 41.9N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0600Z 46.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/0600Z 54.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 57.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 58.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Storm surge still "extremely dangerous" on the latest advisory.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

Su Campu

Cape Hatteras now reporting East 46 Gust 74 knots at 10am

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NC&prodtype=hourly

Misticles

I'm flying to Florida on Tuesday...

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

Cape Hatteras now reporting East 46 Gust 74 knots at 10am

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NC&prodtype=hourly

Now 54 gust 74 knots.....

200motels

Is this a storm in a teacup to paraphrase.

Min

200motels wrote: »

Is this a storm in a teacup to paraphrase.

No, the real damage by this storm will be done by the storm surge, not the wind or rain which will do a lot of damage but the storm surge is what wiped out parts of New Orleans and the Gulf coast, not the other factors.

Also tornadoes are causing problems.

Misticles

Is Orlando going to be effected at all?

random_banter

Misticles wrote: »

Is Orlando going to be effected at all?

Misticles, Irene has long passed Florida and Orlando. You can look at the track on lots of weather websites, MSNBC have a fancy one too: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/ns/weather/t/hurricane-tracker/

I would image you will be grand. If you are flying with Aer Lingus they said yesterday that their flights to Boston and New York will be affected, not Orlando.

maquiladora

Misticles wrote: »

I'm flying to Florida on Tuesday...

Irene will have no impact on Florida. It's moving northeast, and by Tuesday it won't even be Irene anymore.

m.j.w

hi, im heading to orlando on friday but we are flying into new york first. will new york be affected or will it have died down by friday. cheers

gbee

Current tracks say it will still be a tropical storm with 70MPH winds.

However, there is some indication of the beginning of a possible rapid downgrading. Some potential for some re organisation too ~ but the rapid demise of Irene seems more plausible.

maquiladora

Cedar Island Ferry Terminal reported sustained 90 mph winds with gusts up to 110 mph.

Lumi

Short video clip from Nags Head in the last half hr
http://yfrog.com/jlmpnz
Via @Brianskelter on twitter

Redsunset

West coast of Ireland job during deep depression.It's all much ado bout nothing if you ask me

maquiladora

Gust of 117mph reported, I didn't catch the location though.

gbee

A mixture of wind reports some saying very light others reporting near 100mph, two tornadoes reported damage reported.

Other showing garbage bins turned over? No consistency some very low pressures reported too

elvis99

http://www.surfchex.com/nags-head-web-cam.php

Looking rough in Nags head, cam getting pretty blurred

Iancar29

THe Canadian model has whatever remnants of Irene heading in our direction... wouldnt think much of it though, WAY too far out ...

maquiladora

gbee wrote: »

A mixture of wind reports some saying very light others reporting near 100mph, two tornadoes reported damage reported.

Other showing garbage bins turned over? No consistency some very low pressures reported too

Highest winds are offshore at the moment, on the eastward side of the center.

maquiladora

Report that Washington (N Carolina) has already received 18 inches of rain and the whole town is flooded.

Redsunset

amacachi

maquiladora wrote: »

Report that Washington (N Carolina) has already received 18 inches of rain and the whole town is flooded.

Source/link would be nice.