Hurricane IRENE

Redsunset

I suppose when you see it like this it really hits home how massive it is.

Image taken yesterday

couple of storm chasers driving around Carolina here they are dissapointed its not worse


http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com

NIALL D

redsunset wrote: »

I suppose when you see it like this it really hits home how massive it is.

Image taken yesterday

massive is right

looks class !!!

Redsunset

:D:D There disgusted.Basically saying what hurricane.

drdeadlift

From jepp charts

http://www.jetplan.com/weather/data/maps/ushurcn00.gif

Redsunset

http://t.co/BS4PfnN


Radar

maquiladora

Joe Bastardi admits he overcooked the intensity but he is still talking up the storm.

THIS IS A 951 MB HURRICANE it is tightening coming north. People not understanding the path of this storm and the intensity together not being historic are out of touch.

The fact is Gorse nailed it yesterday with his understanding of the interaction this storm would have, and the nice deep cdo forming over the center now is showing it. I have always said that this year, relative to averages the pattern is better near and up our coasts. So 951and this is a major event given the path this is taking







This is not a tropical storm over Florida. It is a 951 mb hurricane that is riding a path only seen a couple of times in 200 years.



As for me.. I did over do the end game intensity thinking this would be near 930mb . But this is not going to weaken that much. The land fall WAS AT CAPE LOOKOUT.. and this is coming right up the coast in a way where it can focus its fury on every coastal town from NC to Long Island. The expanding of the storm and the strong winds on the west side because of its size will do the job here it was meant to do.

In the end people should wait to see how this goes before trying to downplay it more than what the reality is.

...

BTW dont be surprised if this gets better and better organized tonight as it comes up along the coast. The dynamics are there. Just because this is not a fist of fury doesnt mean its not a good fighter



One more thing... This is a top 10 hurricane pressure wise on the NC coast. Since 1950, only Hazel GLoria, Fran and Floyd have had pressures this low, and this is going to hug the water with improving dynamics. There are people on my side of the global warming debate who fight with the same kind of agenda driven fervor that people on the other side do. So they are driving a train scoffing at this storm. In the end , one has to rely on truth across the board. I will face the fact that this is not as strong as I thought, but in the end, the track, and the facts against history will tell us where this ranked against storms that have hit the mid atlantic states



With pressures falling deep convection increasing and the radar presentation looking better, and dynamics improving this is hardly the time to think this is a nothing storm



ciao for now

this loon slept on the beach last night....he just woke up a while ago.
lots of things flying around his car.

The man is insane LOL. look at the waves , he needs to back that car up



http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather-webcam#utm_campaign=www.ustream.tv&utm_source=4301091&utm_medium=social

Lirange

amacachi wrote: »

Source/link would be nice.

I'm not sure what Maquie's source was but I came across this. Washington, NC is inland a bit too.

maquiladora

This shows the latest official forecast track with expected winds. Notice sustained hurricane force winds still forecast up to and beyond NY.

tomcosgrave

Not sure if it's been posted already, but the live coverage from The Weather Channel is great - http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/Livestream

Lirange

There seems to be a lot of concern being expressed for Atlantic City in southern NJ.

maquiladora

Lirange wrote: »

I'm not sure what Maquie's source was but I came across this. Washington, NC is inland a bit too.

Sorry, I heard it mentioned on one of the streaming news channels I was listening to in the background.

amacachi

Lirange wrote: »

There seems to be a lot of concern being expressed for Atlantic City in southern NJ.

I would've thought so.

Redsunset

First death in NC, man killed by part of tree falling on him.

Redsunset

Very similar path to Floyd in 1999

maquiladora

Flooding reports starting to come in via Newport NWS.

1110 AM FLOOD SWANQUARTER 35.40N 76.32W
08/27/2011 MAINLAND HYDE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER HAS TOPPED THE LEVY IN SWANQUARTER WITH MAJOR
FLOODING ONGOING.

IvySlayer

Tornado warnings in Carolina and surronding counties/states.

maquiladora

Some interesting comments from Mt Holly NWS:

MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL JET
EVEN HAS SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT AND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION
OF THIS JET IT IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO MAY TEND TO HELP WITH
A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THEREFORE, DESPITE SOME INCREASING SHEAR
AS THE HURRICANE GAINES LATITUDE ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS AND LAND
INTERACTIONS, PERHAPS THIS IS WHY MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEARLY
INSISTS THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A RATHER LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE ALL THE
WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT BECOMES EVEN MORE OF AN INTENSITY
FORECAST CHALLENGE AS TROPICAL CYCLONES GET THIS FAR NORTH AND
INTERACT WITH BAROCLINIC ZONES AND LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL JET IS CONCERNING
AS THIS MAY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN ENHANCING THE RAINFALL RATES.
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP
BEING THE MAIN TOPIC OF DISCUSSION FOR MANY YEARS. AN EXAMINATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AT 925 MB IS STILL CONCERNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF
60 TO NEARLY 85 KNOTS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL TEND TO SLOW THE
WIND DOWN SOME AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND ABOVE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
MIXING WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN/CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING GUSTS.

Redsunset

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U_am_1lfJQ

Irene path last couple of days.

maquiladora

From Dr Jeff Masters latest update :

A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide. With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8 foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide. High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall (which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in southern Manhattan.

Pangea

Will Irene be a threat to Boston?

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Will Irene be a threat to Boston?

Depends on the track Irene takes and her intensity by the time she gets that far north.

Current forecast for Boston for Sunday is for tropical storm conditions with hurricane force gusts :

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. High near 75. Southeast wind 40 to 50 mph increasing to between 45 and 65 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Patchy fog before 9pm. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 61. West wind 29 to 39 mph decreasing to between 18 and 23 mph. Winds could gust as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

jimmynokia

suppose we are going to get the but end of this now next week

maquiladora

...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
2:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 27
Location: 35.5°N 76.3°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb

Pressure has actually dropped instead of rising since the last advisory.

NIALL D

jimmynokia wrote: »

suppose we are going to get the but end of this now next week

ah it wont matter all that much if we do , its always rainin and windy here anyway...

Redsunset

Moved slightly to the right,she wants to stay over water.

Pangea

Watching CNN on Freesat, what I find quite funny is that the news is telling everyone to stay indoors yet they have correspondents outdoors in very dangerous conditions showing us what its like out there.

m.j.w

sorry to ask again, just freaking out here. Im heading to orlando next friday but we are flying there via new york. will the worst have been past new york by friday if they are getting it now?

Redsunset

m.j.w wrote: »

sorry to ask again, just freaking out here. Im heading to orlando next friday but we are flying there via new york. will the worst have been past new york by friday if they are getting it now?