The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

gudede

Am I missing something or what? 8] {8
People are going mad for QPR and I really don't understand why.

QPR results so far have been
L Wigan 2-0 (a)
L Rochdale 2-0 (h)
W Everton 1-0 (a)
L Bolton 4-0 (h)

Their only victory this season has been against Everton, were they had one shot on target and just happened to score from it. Everton had a couple of good chances and should of won. They four nil loss against Bolton was unlucky but still they conceded four. Losing to Wigan and Di Santo scoring twice against you is a disgrace. That guy is a terrible player (still better than me thou :lol )

Newcastle's results have been

W Fulham 2-1 (h)
W Scunthorpe 2-1 (a)
W Sunderland 1-0 (a)
D Arsenal 0-0 (h)

Newcastle played very well against Arsenal and the result away to Sunderland was a very good result. Everybody taught Newcastle would lost all there three games so far but they are showing plenty of heart.

Here is some stats from Opta

•No player has had more shots without scoring a goal this season than Adel Taarabt (14).
•Newcastle are unbeaten in their last four meetings with the Hoops, winning three.
•This is Newcastle's best start to a Premier League season since 1995/96 when they finished second.
•QPR have managed one win and two defeats after three games in each of their last four Premier League campaigns.
•The Hoops have conceded more fouls in their own defensive third than any other PL side this season (14).
•QPR have played more long balls (132) than any other PL side this season.
•Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six league games, winning three.
•The Magpies have not gone seven without defeat in the top flight since April 2008.
•QPR have lost four of their last five matches in all competitions.
•Neil Warnock's men are without a win in their last five matches at Loftus Road in all competitions, losing the last three.

I know QPR signed players but Shaun Wright-Phillips, Anton Ferdinand and Luke Young aren't the greatest players of all time. Solid but not wonderful.
I just think Newcastle are overpriced at 2/1 and also Ryan Taylor has a great freekick and with QPR conceding so many free's I think 6/1 anytime scorer is a good bet

In Irish football I backed Bohemians v Dundalk draw at half time 11/10. Out of 14 games this happened 10 times for Bohemians and happened 7 out of 13 for Dudalk. Also only one game all year for Bohemians at home went over 2.5 goals (3/4) (just happend to be the games I backed unders on ) Dundalk have also drew there last three games.

St Pat's V Shamrock Rovers draw at half time 21/20. Over half of Pats games have been draw at half time (8/15) and 10 of Rovers 15 games have been a draw. I expect maybe a nil all or 1-0 in this so fingers crossed no goal in 1st half

Nuri Sahin

Rosenberg -1 @ 11/8, against the bottom of the league team!? I know Rosenberg haven't well below their usual standards but that looks like value.

Oh and take a pic -

Premier League Matches QPR v Newcastle
12-09-2011 20:00
Draw No Bet
Newcastle @ evens

Portuguese Div 1 Matches Academica v Nacional Madeira
12-09-2011 20:15
Draw No Bet
Academica @ 8/13

Spanish La Liga Matches Malaga v Granada
12-09-2011 20:00
Win-Draw-Win
Malaga @ 4/9

League of Ireland Premier Matches Sligo Rovers v Bray Wanderers
12-09-2011 19:45
Win-Draw-Win
Sligo Rovers @ 1/6

League of Ireland Premier Matches Derry City v Drogheda United
12-09-2011 19:45
Win-Draw-Win
Derry City @ 1/8

Norwegian Eliteserien Sarpsborg v Rosenborg BK
12-09-2011 18:00
Handicap Betting
Rosenborg BK (-1.0) @ 11/8

Finnish Veikkausliiga HJK Helsinki v Kuopio PS
12-09-2011 16:30
Alternative Handicap
HJK Helsinki (-1.0) @ 4/9

5 returns 105.

Also five on Barton being sent off @ 22/1 and 50 on Newcastle @ 2/1, placed in early hours. Now down to 15/8 on PP.

stingerro

Yardie wrote: »

9/2 are decent odds for the card/corner double as if it is to be a feisty one then both are likely to come in. Wouldnt stake much on it though

55 card index is quite high. 5 cards would be my prediction for this game-2 for QPR, 3 for Newcastle. But if a red comes in then it will come in easily.

Line for cards is 4.5 on bet365. Of course went for over. Still thinking over corners, but I will probably skip it. Anything reccomended for single teams scoring over 1.5 or 2.5?

SteelyDanJalapeno

Newcastle at 2/1 were a great price!

Can't see QPR causing them much hassle

Lasagna Diarra

Terek - Kuban Krasnodar : Kuban

Lasagna Diarra

I didn't have much luck in the past couple days so I hope it comes back for the CL.

I'll start with 2 singles:
APOEL - Zenith : draw (APOEL managed 3 draws the last time they were in the CL (same coach) including one in the first game vs Atletico Madrid. Zenith's coach Spaletti is terribly overrated imo, they got knocked out of the CL by Auxerre last year...and lost 4-2 at the weekend despite leading 2-0 at HT)

Vitktoria Plzen - BATE : draw (I can't see BATE losing here, they managed 2 draws against Juventus in their last CL groups campaign, they've drawn many games this season against top Belarussian teams and also in the CL qualifiers (Linfield, Ekranas, Sturm Graz). BATE have a great coach imo and more experience than Plzen, but their main striker is out for months)

Then a treble of the above plus Arsenal or draw

also considering doing this:
Porto - Shakhtar : Shakhtar (Porto have lost their coach Andre Dildo-Boas-whatever and Falcao and Shakhtar have improved a lot, they knocked out Roma last year, they were dangerous at times against Barcelona, there's good value even for Shakhtar or draw @2.15)

user2011

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I didn't have much luck in the past couple days so I hope it comes back for the CL.

I'll start with 2 singles:
APOEL - Zenith : draw (APOEL managed 3 draws the last time they were in the CL (same coach) including one in the first game vs Atletico Madrid. Zenith's coach Spaletti is terribly overrated imo, they got knocked out of the CL by Auxerre last year...and lost 4-2 at the weekend despite leading 2-0 at HT)

Vitktoria Plzen - BATE : draw (I can't see BATE losing here, they managed 2 draws against Juventus in their last CL groups campaign, they've drawn many games this season against top Belarussian teams and also in the CL qualifiers (Linfield, Ekranas, Sturm Graz). BATE have a great coach imo and more experience than Plzen, but their main striker is out for months)

Then a treble of the above plus Arsenal or draw

also considering doing this:
Porto - Shakhtar : Shakhtar (Porto have lost their coach Andre Dildo-Boas-whatever and Falcao and Shakhtar have improved a lot, they knocked out Roma last year, they were dangerous at times against Barcelona, there's good value even for Shakhtar or draw @2.15)

:pac: Vilas not Dildo :pac:

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

Derry -1, Sligo -1, Helsinki -1, Inter Turka, Elfsborg, Atvidabergs @ 13/1, any opinions?

Ended up going with a small stake on this and a decent sized one without Inter Turka which worked out at 5/1.

Leeg17

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

Oh and take a pic -

Premier League Matches QPR v Newcastle
12-09-2011 20:00
Draw No Bet
Newcastle @ evens

Portuguese Div 1 Matches Academica v Nacional Madeira
12-09-2011 20:15
Draw No Bet
Academica @ 8/13

Spanish La Liga Matches Malaga v Granada
12-09-2011 20:00
Win-Draw-Win
Malaga @ 4/9

League of Ireland Premier Matches Sligo Rovers v Bray Wanderers
12-09-2011 19:45
Win-Draw-Win
Sligo Rovers @ 1/6

League of Ireland Premier Matches Derry City v Drogheda United
12-09-2011 19:45
Win-Draw-Win
Derry City @ 1/8


5 returns 105.

Also five on Barton being sent off @ 22/1 and 50 on Newcastle @ 2/1, placed in early hours. Now down to 15/8 on PP.

I'm on this like a priest on an altar boy. Now we wait..

..Decided to leave out the (-1) handicaps and still managed around 8/1 odds in the accumulator.

Lasagna Diarra

user2011 wrote: »

:pac: Vilas not Dildo :pac:

I know I was j/k

user2011

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I know I was j/k

:pac: Ah feck should of listen to myself just before i sent that

Yardie

stingerro wrote: »

Line for cards is 4.5 on bet365. Of course went for over. Still thinking over corners, but I will probably skip it. Anything reccomended for single teams scoring over 1.5 or 2.5?

The card line will be tight but over 4.5 cards is better option than the 55 points or more. Dowd's record of cards in televised games is high so hopefully he'll want his own piece of spotlight tonight and give Barton a red and we'll all be happy.

Newcastle averaging 3 cards a game but QPR only 1 per game. Newcastle over 2.5 cards @ 6/5 may be better bet than over 4.5.

The corner stats for both teams varying this season but new signings for QPR is what has tipped me in favour of the overs corners here.

Can't see much value in the over 1.5/2.5 team goals. But 2 HT/FT bets I really fancy are Sparta Prague and Atvidasbergs to win HT/FT. Both in top 2 of leagues playing teams in relegation zones. Both home records on statstracker are very good. Away teams records are poor.

Have done a treble

Sparta Prague HT/FT
Atvidasberg HT/FT
Bohs/Dundalk under 3.5

€20 pays €70

TheMilkyPirate

Newcastle
Porto
Basel
United
City

Works out around 18/1, What ya's think?

EDIT: Sparta prague HT/FT bumps it up to 28/1

Yardie

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I didn't have much luck in the past couple days so I hope it comes back for the CL.



also considering doing this:
Porto - Shakhtar : Shakhtar (Porto have lost their coach Andre Dildo-Boas-whatever and Falcao and Shakhtar have improved a lot, they knocked out Roma last year, they were dangerous at times against Barcelona, there's good value even for Shakhtar or draw @2.15)

Draws look good but have to disagree with this. The departure of AVB and Falcao haven't really affected the side and they are comfortably beating teams again this year. Colombian U20 star James has had a great start to the season. He didnt play much last year but has started this season with a bang- 3 goals in 2 goals so he has potential to be one of the top players in the world.

Over 2.5 goals in this game has to be one of the bets of the week.

Lasagna Diarra

Yardie wrote: »

Draws look good but have to disagree with this. The departure of AVB and Falcao haven't really affected the side and they are comfortably beating teams again this year. Colombian U20 star James has had a great start to the season. He didnt play much last year but has started this season with a bang- 3 goals in 2 goals so he has potential to be one of the top players in the world.

Over 2.5 goals in this game has to be one of the bets of the week.

yea but Shakhtar have shown they could beat Roma, Milan (or did it end in a draw?), Bremen, Benfica and they had some great chances vs Barcelona. I definitely agree about the over 2.5, although here I get a slightly higher value for 'both to score'.


Just did another accum:
Porto - Shakhtar: BTS
Dortmund - Arsenal: BTS
Viktoria Plzen - BATE: BTS
Genk - Valencia: Valencia

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Terek - Kuban Krasnodar : Kuban

pick won They were at around 3.10 to win, hope the bookmakers continue underestimating Kuban.

stingerro

Guys - referee Szymon Marciniak in 4 games of Polish League this season... awarded 6 penalty kicks, some of them were very soft. It took him only 3 games, as he didn't award any in last one (and he should probably). He will be refereeing Lechia - Gornik game. I don't see a market for it on bet365 though. I'm also thinking over bet for this game, more to come soon.

stingerro

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

pick won They were at around 3.10 to win, hope the bookmakers continue underestimating Kuban.

Great call, but too bad you didn't give any explanation for this pick. Great for you though.

stingerro

Gornik Zabrze (AH 0.0) - 2.60 at bet365. Bet placed. They are very solid team and Lechia is without two creative players today, they are also under serious pressure to win finally at their new PGE Arena.

Nuri Sahin

Re: Porto and Shaktar, I'd be fairly confident in both sides to score in the Porto game. Overs should come in too. Both are free scoring, attacking sides.

Rodríguez for Porto and Luiz Adriano for Shaktar would be a good goalscorer bets.

Lasagna Diarra

stingerro wrote: »

Great call, but too bad you didn't give any explanation for this pick. Great for you though.

Yea my bad, I always bet on Kuban, I rate their coach (Petrescu) highly, they already beat Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Moscow so they can beat the big Russian teams too. Their striker Lacina Traoré is very good too.

Dolph Starbeam

My bet for tonight;

UCD
Derry City -1
Sligo -1
Malaga
Sparta Prague HT/FT
GAIS +2
QPR - Newcastle Over 46 Points

€10 at 13/1.


GAIS +2 at 4/7 looks worth a shot on its own too.

Lasagna Diarra

Mark! wrote: »

My bet for tonight;

UCD
Derry City -1
Sligo -1
Malaga
Sparta Prague HT/FT
GAIS +2
QPR - Newcastle Over 46 Points

€10 at 13/1.


GAIS +2 at 4/7 looks worth a shot on its own too.

what's that?

Leeg17

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

what's that?

Presuming cards, 15 pts for a yellow, red = 2 yellows, I think.

Dolph Starbeam

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

what's that?

Ye bookings, 10 points for a yellow and 25 for a red. Its with Boyles.

SteelyDanJalapeno

10 for a yellow, 25 for a red!

afaik

stingerro

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Yea my bad, I always bet on Kuban, I rate their coach (Petrescu) highly, they already beat Spartak Moscow and Dinamo Moscow so they can beat the big Russian teams too. Their striker Lacina Traoré is very good too.

Traore worked with Petrescu in Cluj when they were playing in CL a few years back. Great bet, will have to keep this in mind.

The Internet

Gornik Zabrze are one up now

Leeg17

Mark! wrote: »

Ye bookings, 10 points for a yellow and 25 for a red. Its with Boyles.

TiltedBrain wrote: »

10 for a yellow, 25 for a red!

afaik

Okay okay

lol

Lasagna Diarra

dammit they havent added the Irish league games on Bwin here wanted to go big on a draw at HT of the Shamrock Rovers game.