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The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 141 ✭✭Flashdean


    keane2097 wrote: »
    Why do people still think betting against Kettering is value? Madness.

    There last 6 games they have W0 D2 L4

    Conceading 13 goals

    There stuck in a rut at the moment


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,303 ✭✭✭Lasagna Diarra


    4 singles:

    Draw @ HT in these games:
    Reading - Peterborough
    Leicester - Blackpool
    Chelsea - Liverpool
    Arsenal - Man City

    I'm particularly confident about Reading, 4 of their last 5 games (and 4 of their last 5 HOME games) were draws at HT (they conceded after just 2 min vs Cardiff but then the other goals came after HT).

    http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/reading-fc/

    Also, 4 of Leicester's last 5 games were draws at HT, and 3 of Blackpool's last 5 games were draws at HT.

    http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/leicester-city-fc/
    http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/blackpool-fc/


  • Registered Users Posts: 141 ✭✭Flashdean


    keane2097 wrote: »
    People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.

    Yes we have fleetwood WILL win! thus being a winner!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    Flashdean wrote: »
    Yes we have fleetwood WILL win! thus being a winner!

    lol, exactly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,862 ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    keane2097 wrote: »
    People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.

    At least a bit of reasoning of why those picks have been made would be nice at times.

    Last night i put a treble down here of Juve\Man City\Barca match over 3,5

    Why Juve? It will be Napoli's 3rd match in 6 days. Juve are flying and have no European football to worry about.
    Man City? 2nd string Arse has not much chance vs 2nd string City i fear.
    Barca has a point to proof after losing last weekend.

    Clearly these are not bankers but this is how i think those matches turn out.

    I usually try to find things that are not on everybody's radar here.

    Didnt make much sense to post last night my bet of home wins in Dusseldorf/Charlton and Malaga. Everybody was on those games.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21 IfreedTheweed


    keane2097 wrote: »
    People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.
    It's easy to say something like that without posting winners yourself isn't it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,672 ✭✭✭elefant


    stingerro wrote: »
    Interesting pick from BettingAdvice forum, seriously considering it, despite not being a fan of betting on African football (but yesterday I cashed on Brazilian basketball, so...)

    Crap, just got up to see that there but Rwanda are one up already.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    It's easy to say something like that without posting winners yourself isn't it.

    Whatever dude, I'm just trying to give people a bit of advice that blindly backing events just because you think they'll win is a short road to bustoville.

    The lack of consideration given to the pricing of bets ITT is alarming.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 218 ✭✭ff9999


    Cardiff v Blackburn, Chelsea v Liverpool, Arsenal v Man City

    Both Teams to Score @ 3/1

    OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 5/1

    OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 24/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,998 ✭✭✭grohlisagod


    Barcelona to score first 27th minute or under is 10/11 tonight. Messi usually covers this on his own at the Camp Nou. Looks the only bet of any real value on that game to me.

    It's 5/6 now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭FOXFISH1


    Liverpool - They have only failed to find the back of the net once in 41 League Cup outings - a 2-0 away defeat to Chelsea in the 2007 quarter-finals.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    keane2097 wrote: »
    It's a high enough ROI of ~11% which would make it a fantastic Arb, don't know enough in terms of stats about games finishing on exactly four cards in order to quantify the risk, but I'd be wary.

    If it was something like an American Football HC and the risk point (i.e. the 4 card mark for this bet) was at three points you're at a much greater risk than you are at any other point. Since both books have 4 cards as their inflection point that suggests exactly four cards is probably a fairly regular finishing mark.

    I'm probably going to leave it off tbh, but nice spot.

    Chance of 45 exactly and only 4 cards is very very low but funnily enough this happened in Vallecano's last home game and in one of the last 10 games reffed by ref tonight Lasa.

    Bet365 have moved their line to over 5.5 now which is still below the rest of the bookies line of over 65 points. So bookies are expecting a high card game which I am too.

    Paddy Power have quoted me 12/1 on exactly 45 points in game. So to minimise risk €60 on that returns €720 profit. So if worst comes to worst will be down €30 if 45 lands. Up €40 is over 4.5 comes in on bet365 an up a €2.50 with Hills


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    Arbing aside. the Barca/Vallecano game looks ripe for cards

    The ref is Lasa who has been dishing them out for fun lately. His last two games have seen 18 yellows and 2 reds.

    Vallecano are extremely aggressive away from home and some of their players have been picking up a huge amount of cards. Betfair only place with market at moment so taken a couple of lads @ evens. PP may quote better price

    Jose Casado . Full back. 6 cards in 11 this season. 8 yellows in last 11 away games.

    Javi Fuego. Defensive Midfielder. 3 cards in last 4 games

    And if he starts Alejandro Garrido. 6 cards in 11 this year and 7 yellows in last 9 away games.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

    Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,797 ✭✭✭Shane St.


    keane2097 wrote: »
    Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

    Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...

    the liverpool official site usually puts out the liverpool team a good hour before kick off. this is their twitter
    http://twitter.com/#!/lfc

    just follow sites like teamtalk on twitter usually put it out in good time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,975 ✭✭✭iMuse


    keane2097 wrote: »
    Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

    Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...

    Follow as many english journos as you can on twitter, they are normally always first with the news imo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    iMuse wrote: »
    Follow as many english journos as you can on twitter, they are normally always first with the news imo

    Any suggestions?


  • Site Banned Posts: 26,456 ✭✭✭✭Nuri Sahin


    Added Over 2.5 goals and over 75 in card index in Barca match @ 7/4.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,786 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Emailed pp about odds on David Luiz and Frimpong to be booked last night and still no odds

    They are very a frustrating bookie


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,198 ✭✭✭buckfasterer


    keane2097 wrote: »
    iMuse wrote: »
    Follow as many english journos as you can on twitter, they are normally always first with the news imo

    Any suggestions?

    Ollie holt, Phil mc nulty, Henry winter, Martin lipton.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Apparently Cavani is out of the Napoli-Juventus match because of injury.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 624 ✭✭✭gudede


    inforfun wrote: »
    Why Juve? It will be Napoli's 3rd match in 6 days. Juve are flying and have no European football to worry about.

    I agree that Napoli's 3rd match in 6 days will effect them, but they rested a couple of players at the weekend and Lavezzi & Inter are back after missing the weekend game but Cavani is out injured. Napoli have won the last four fixtures at home against Juventus...

    Napoli's home form is abit rocky this season over the champions league, with them winning two, drawing two and losing two. Juventus are unbeaten in the league this season and their away record is three wins and two draw's.

    Napoli have kept three clean sheets at home this season and Juventus have kept three clean sheets on the road this season. So with the news that Cavani is out and that both teams will not want to lose this match and probably try and keep things tight I have decided to back a nil all result @ 8/1. The bet is probably under's but I don't like backing under's at odds on.

    Another bet I like tonight is over2.5 goals in the Burnley V Ipswich @ 13/20. Burnley have played at home nine times in this season and six of those games have gone over 2.5 goals (that included their last three home games going over 2.5) in fact there last seven games have gone over 2.5 goals.

    Ipswich have played on the road eight times this season and five times have over 2.5 came in, there last three away games have gone over 2.5 goals and there last five games have gone over 2.5 goals.

    This fixture the last three times have gone over 2.5 goals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 279 ✭✭alfalion


    keane2097 wrote: »
    Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

    Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...

    Fantasy football scout have a good twitter system with all the clubs


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,862 ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    stingerro wrote: »
    Apparently Cavani is out of the Napoli-Juventus match because of injury.

    Just read the same thing on the Dutch football website i frequent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    inforfun wrote: »
    Just read the same thing on the Dutch football website i frequent.

    Is that breaking news?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,377 ✭✭✭Smithwicks Man


    Yes Cavani appears to be out alright which will be a huge blow.. Juve won't walk it but I can see them winning by 1/2 goals.
    Gone for a double of
    Man City Draw No Bet and
    Juventus Draw No Bet. Playin' it a bit safe but 2.43/1 is still good odds i think!
    27 quid gives back just over 91.

    Also jumping on board with headshot and I've requested odds for both frimpong and luiz to be booked as well as de jong. Still waiting on a reply mind you :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    Yeah hopped on Juve at 85/40 on VC a second ago.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    I took 5/2 on Frimpong card on Unibet. Also small bit on Frimpong red @ 24/1.

    Still searching for Luiz odds. Bookies say won't give price as game isn't televised:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,356 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    keane2097 wrote: »
    People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.
    keane2097 wrote: »
    Yeah hopped on Juve at 85/40 on VC a second ago.

    :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,356 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    Yardie wrote: »
    I took 5/2 on Frimpong card on Unibet. Also small bit on Frimpong red @ 24/1.

    Still searching for Luiz odds. Bookies say won't give price as game isn't televised:rolleyes:

    As netnerd mentioned yesterday, Boyles will always give you odds, give them a buzz.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    :rolleyes:

    What's the rolleyes about?

    Juventus were 9/4 with Cavani playing all day, 9/4 with Cavani missing is obv therefore a correct bet.

    209/100 on BF in a liquid market without factoring in commission vs 85/40 with a bookmaker is a bet all day long.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,377 ✭✭✭Smithwicks Man


    Is there a split opinion on whether or not Juventus is a good pick for tonight?
    11/10 DNB is a great bet imo.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,356 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    Cavani being the reason you jumped on stumps me, he's overrated, 4 in his last 10 games, hardly a massive loss..............


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    As netnerd mentioned yesterday, Boyles will always give you odds, give them a buzz.

    I rang Boyles and they wouldnt give me a price.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    Cavani being the reason you jumped on stumps me, he's overrated, 4 in his last 10 games, hardly a massive loss..............

    Cool beans yo.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭stiffler123


    Blackburn 12/5 against Cardiff looks good to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,071 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Yardie wrote: »
    Arbing aside. the Barca/Vallecano game looks ripe for cards

    The ref is Lasa who has been dishing them out for fun lately. His last two games have seen 18 yellows and 2 reds.

    Vallecano are extremely aggressive away from home and some of their players have been picking up a huge amount of cards. Betfair only place with market at moment so taken a couple of lads @ evens. PP may quote better price

    Jose Casado . Full back. 6 cards in 11 this season. 8 yellows in last 11 away games.

    Javi Fuego. Defensive Midfielder. 3 cards in last 4 games

    And if he starts Alejandro Garrido. 6 cards in 11 this year and 7 yellows in last 9 away games.

    Great picks Yardie

    Also in this game, both Busquets and Pique just 1 booking away from suspension for Barca. chances are they'll get themselves booked and miss game against Levante in order to be around for the Real Madrid game;)

    so the Over 5.5 cards in this match looks a cert

    EDIT: just looking at odds for them to get booked on betfair, they down to 4/11 for Pique and 1/2 for Busquets.. fairly pathetic odds, not worth a punt


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,356 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    Anyone still looking at Kettering, Keeper is still suspended along with Navarro who was decent Saturday, McKenzie and Ifill are also injury doubts,

    Ketts looking at calling more non contracted youth players,

    Unfortunately no value left in the markets.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,786 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    ya the 5/6 on the -1 went in no time


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    wprathead wrote: »
    Great picks Yardie

    Also in this game, both Busquets and Pique just 1 booking away from suspension for Barca. chances are they'll get themselves booked and miss game against Levante in order to be around for the Real Madrid game;)

    so the Over 5.5 cards in this match looks a cert


    Yes I saw that about Pique and Busquets but only prices available are 4/11 for Pique and 1/2 for Busquets on betfair. I guess they are sure things.

    Best of luck with whatever ye take on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,071 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    ha ya i saw that there, think we missed the train with that one haha


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭Derek!


    Cant get on bookin points in the Barca game so I might have to go for a red card @ 5/1. do yas reckon that would be a waste of money?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 542 ✭✭✭clearodara


    wprathead wrote: »
    ha ya i saw that there, think we missed the train with that one haha

    Fleetwood town are evens to win to nil. Might be a bit of value, but would mean sweating for 90 minutes.

    Juve look very good odds DNB, they havent lost a competitive game this season in 11 outings

    Also barcelona to score 2 or more first half goals is evens. Looks a smashing bet considering they'll be all guns blazing tonight after their loss to Getafe and will want to return to winning ways with Real now top


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 738 ✭✭✭MikeyGorse


    Southampton @ 4/7
    Southampton v Hull
    Match Betting

    Yes @ 4/7
    Reading v Peterborough
    Both Teams To Score

    Burnley @ 20/21
    Burnley v Ipswich
    Match Betting

    Juventus @ 8/15 +1
    Napoli v Juventus
    Match Handicap -1

    Over 3.5 @ 8/11
    Barcelona v Rayo
    Total Goals U/O 3.5

    Total stake € 5.00
    Estimated return € 63.84


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,071 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Reading Vs Peterbourgh
    Highest scoring half- 2nd half @ evens
    Reading score a whopping 95% of their goals in Championship in 2nd half! Peterborough score 55.9%


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,317 ✭✭✭Yardie


    Derek! wrote: »
    Cant get on bookin points in the Barca game so I might have to go for a red card @ 5/1. do yas reckon that would be a waste of money?

    where are you getting 5/1?? Best I saw was 12/5..could be big arb opp.

    5/1 defo worth a tenner. Not so keen on 12/5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 738 ✭✭✭MikeyGorse


    Fleetwood @ 8/15 -1
    Fleetwood v Kettering Town
    Match Handicap -1

    Over 3.5 @ 8/11
    Barcelona v Rayo
    Total Goals U/O 3.5

    Total stake € 15.00
    Estimated return € 39.73


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20 gar.ie


    millwall to bt doncaster
    southampton to bt hull
    braga to bt birmingham
    alkmaar to bt malmo
    r. bucharest to bt tel aviv

    60/1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 542 ✭✭✭clearodara


    Going for this after looking at some statistics, pays 14/1:

    Spanish La Liga Matches Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano
    29-11-2011 20:00
    Team First Half Goals
    Barcelona to Score 2 or more First Half Goals @ 10/11

    Npower Championship Matches Reading v Peterborough
    29-11-2011 20:00
    Team Goals in Match
    Peterborough to Score 1 or more goals in the match @ 4/11

    Npower Championship Matches Derby v Brighton
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Team Goals in Match
    Derby to Score 1 or more goals in the match @ 1/4

    Npower Championship Matches Burnley v Ipswich
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Team Goals in Match
    Ipswich to Score 1 or more goals in the match @ 3/10

    Npower Championship Matches Southampton v Hull
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Team Goals in Match
    Southampton to Score 2 or more goals in the match @ 4/7

    Npower Championship Matches Watford v Bristol City
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Team Goals in Match
    Watford to Score 1 or more goals in the match @ 2/9

    Npower Championship Matches Nottm Forest v Leeds
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Team Goals in Match
    Leeds to Score 1 or more goals in the match @ 3/10

    Npower Championship Matches Middlesbrough v West Ham
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Team Goals in Match
    West Ham to Score 1 or more goals in the match @ 3/10

    Also going for over 2.5 in these 5 going on stats, pays 13/1

    Npower Championship Matches Leicester v Blackpool
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6

    Npower Championship Matches Nottm Forest v Leeds
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

    Npower Championship Matches Southampton v Hull
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11

    Npower Championship Matches Burnley v Ipswich
    29-11-2011 19:45
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6

    Npower Championship Matches Reading v Peterborough
    29-11-2011 20:00
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/13


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