The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

stingerro

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I assume you're talking about Dinamo Zagreb, yea that was a shock result :eek:

Damm, feel bad now, as with my recent results I didn't want to give any advices to anyone. But croatian tipsters a few weeks ago told me it's a good idea to always go for Zadar win at home, except when they are playing against Hajduk and Dinamo. So it probably means as well that Hajduk and Dinamo aren't banker playing at Zadar...

Fowler87

Going for a Richards Insurebet scorer double in League 2 tonight...

J. Richards (Burton) @ 3/1
M. Richards (Port Vale) @ 3/1

7.5 returns potentially 120

Looks decent as both strikers in form and at home against lesser teams..

keysersoze0330

Gone for this tonight for a bit of interest with Boylesports

Shelbourne v St Patrick's Athletic
Total Goals U/O 1.5 Over 1.5 1/4
Doncaster v Leeds
Total Goals U/O 1.5 Over 1.5 1/4
Bristol Rovers v Rotherham
Total Goals U/O 1.5 Over 1.5 1/4
Port Vale v Northampton
Total Goals U/O 1.5 Over 1.5 1/4
Drogheda Utd v Bray Wanderers
Total Goals U/O 1.5 Over 1.5 1/4
Mervue United v Monaghan
Total Goals U/O 2.5 Over 2.5 4/7
Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Total Goals U/O 1.5 Over 1.5 2/9
Total stake €16.50
Estimated return €96.71
Full stake €16.50
Full Estimated return €96.71

Headshot

Strange the odds have drifted on New Saints

fat tony9

seanhynes wrote: »

mistake there on PP,they had Mastricht as 0-1 down and it was 1-1..got on mastricht to get the 2nd goal 4/6

ha- they gonna screw ya!

Lasagna Diarra

stingerro wrote: »

Damm, feel bad now, as with my recent results I didn't want to give any advices to anyone. But croatian tipsters a few weeks ago told me it's a good idea to always go for Zadar win at home, except when they are playing against Hajduk and Dinamo. So it probably means as well that Hajduk and Dinamo aren't banker playing at Zadar...

Will keep this in mind

magherakid

Shelbourne v St Pats over 2.5 goals Evs

Yardie

Villareal B over 1.5 goals @ 10/11 on bet365 is worth a look. They have scored 3 goals in each of their home league games this season. Girona have conceded 2 or more in 2 of their 3 away league games

Lasagna Diarra

I like the look of this double for tomorrow:

Lokomotiv Astana - Aktobe : under 2.5 (Kazakh league)
APOEL Nicosia - AEL Limassol : under 2.5 (Cypriot league)
@3.15

stingerro

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I like the look of this double for tomorrow:

Lokomotiv Astana - Aktobe : under 2.5 (Kazakh league)
APOEL Nicosia - AEL Limassol : under 2.5 (Cypriot league)
@3.15

Not a big fan of going for under 2.5 goals, but maybe it will interest you:

Nothing really stands out in the French 2nd div [61% unders] this weekend , however, allowing a smidgin of lee-way i'm going to take a Saturday selection from the Slovakian Liga which is sitting just under the 60% mark , 59.1% to be precise but the strength of the h2h and recent league stats is enough to allow a bet imo

T.PRESOV v SENICA has ended under in 3/3 corresponding fixtures

T PRESOV have had 5/5 homes end Under
SENICA have had 4/5 aways end Under

From Gooner Guide forum and topic specialized in searching (aften with a good results) for under 2.5 goals matches.

Headshot

My final bet for the weekend

15 Oct 2011 - Schalke 04 v Kaiserslautern - Hat-trick
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar @ 20/1

keysersoze0330

Don't know what to do tomorrow, sick of one team let downs in accums so might just do a big double or treble. Fancy United but need to see the team first.

Thinking United, Stevenage/ Charlton over 2.5 and Qpr/ Blackburn over 2.5
€50 pays €300, maybe

stingerro

Some stuff from Opta for the weekend:

The last 5 games at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea & Everton have been drawn. No PL fixture has ever seen 6 consecutive draws. Odds.

All 5 goals West Brom have scored so far have been netted in the 1st half of matches & the last 4 all in the opening 5 minutes. Zip.

There have only been eight goals scored in the last seven Premier League matches between Arsenal and Sunderland. Dearth.

Demba Ba has scored 11 goals in 14 Premier League starts. Demon.

Since losing to Fulham at the Britannia Stadium, Stoke have lost just 1 of their last 12 Premier League home games (W7 D4 L1). Fortress.

The last time Andre Marriner refereed a Liverpool & Man Utd game was in October 2009 & he sent off one player from each side. Even.

13 of the last 16 goals Dundee United have scored against Aberdeen have been netted in the first half. Early.

Garry O’Connor has scored 7 goals in his last 10 SPL matches & scored both of Hibs goals in the League Cup tie at Fir Park. Sizzling.

Celtic have only ever lost three away games in a row twice before in the SPL, the last time being in April 2000. Rare.

Reading have netted 91% of their league goals in the second half so far this season, the highest ratio in the league. Oranges.

Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in their last five games, but have failed to score themselves in the last three. Zeroes.

Chris Wood has scored seven goals in his last five games for Birmingham City in the Championship. Borrowed.

Manchester City have won 12 & lost none of their last 13 PL home games, a run that started with a 4-0 win over Aston Villa.

Borussia Mönchengladbach haven’t won at home against Leverkusen in 19 BL games, the longest ever such run in a BL head-to-head. Fear.

Barcelona's Andrés Iniesta has scored in his last three La Liga appearances against Racing. Victimise.

If only second half goals counted in the league this season, Malaga would be top of LigaBBVA (14 points). Oranges

Roma are, alongside Udinese, the only side yet to concede a goal in the first 45 minutes of their games this season. Preview.

Chievo have won just once against Juventus in their 16 Serie A encounters. Preview.

Catania have conceded 64 goals in their 28 previous league encounters v Inter, none has scored more. Preview.

Liverpool have won their last three home league games against United, their best run since a streak of nine in a row between 1972 and 1979

Liverpool have won the joint-most corners (52) in the top flight this season

Samich

1 Over 1.5 Man City v Aston Villa
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.18 To Run

2 Over 1.5 Wigan v Bolton
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.28 To Run

3 Over 1.5 QPR v Blackburn
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.30 To Run

4 Over 1.5 Newcastle v Tottenham
(Alternative Total Goals) 16/10/2011 None 1.25 To Run

5 Over 1.5 Doncaster v Leeds
(Alternative Total Goals) 14/10/2011 None 1.22 Won

6 Over 1.5 Brighton v Hull
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.30 To Run

7 Over 1.5 Derby v Southampton
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.22 To Run

8 Over 1.5 Stevenage v Charlton
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.25 To Run

9 Over 1.5 Chesterfield v Notts County
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.25 To Run

10 Over 1.5 Southend v Morecambe
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.25 To Run

11 Over 1.5 Dag & Red v Plymouth
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.28 To Run

12 Over 1.5 Bristol Rovers v Rotherham
(Alternative Total Goals) 14/10/2011 None 1.22 Won

13 Over 1.5 Mansfield v Southport
(Alternative Total Goals) 15/10/2011 None 1.22 To Run

14 Over 1.5 Lincoln City v Fleetwood Town
(Alternative Total Goals) 14/10/2011 None 1.25 Won

3 matches have won already so only 11 to go :P

5er wins/profits 107. Returns 112.

Ones I'd be worried about.

Man City
Hull
QPR

Used the tracker for most of these.

And I haven't logged my bets.

But...I am up 32 euro. Most of the early 1.5s were using 1 or 2 euro bets.

Upped to 5 euro the last 2 or 3. Lost them so was up 47.

Fiver in play also with that.

AdrianII

As a test, i did all the games in the championship to be over 1.5goals.
about 20/1 (2 euro only)

Fowler87

Few for tomorrow...

Hartlepool @ 4/5
Southend @ 4/5
10 returns 32

Rhodes Insurebet @ 7/2
McLeod Insurebet @ 3/1
5 double

And gonna have a stab on goals galore (betting zone)...

10.00: Accrington/Swindon, Liverpool/Man Utd and Coventry/Forest BTTS @ 3.8/1

Also looking at the Huntellar Insurebet but PP dont have it up yet:rolleyes: Not til 5:30 tomorrow though so I mite do it anytime in play on bet365...

EDIT: Also have 10er on Suarez 1st scorer in the MB PP special @ 6/1

G'Luck all:cool:

stingerro

It's long, but you never know so I will post it all (stolen from Gooner Guide forum):

Posted 14 October 2011 10:31 PM
I would like to copy/paste article from my blog.
I'm not saying it will definetely happen, but you never knowSmile Maybe it will be interesting for some of you or useful if you try to bet on Lithuanian football.

On Friday it was the game in Lithuanian A league between Banga and Dainava. Short preview below.

14/10/2011 Banga - Dainava
Banga had high hopes before the season and with a good coach I expected them to be in top 6. So far they are 8th, but difference from 5th are only 6 points. And at home they should try to grab 3 points.
Last 5 games were very difficult for Banga. Only 1 point and 1 goal scored. But opposition were all top 5 teams in the league, fighting for the European Cups spots, so you can't look just at statistics.
Dainava are joint 3-4th scoring team in the league with 49 goals, but also conceded 45, which is only 4th from the bottom.
59% of all their games finished as overs. Last 4 games from 5 - also overs.
Dainava was surprise package of the season. They are 5th at the moment, higher than anyone expected before season. Today they meet Banga, another midtable team, and Dainava will have no fear and should play their open game once more.
Mutual matches this season were won by visitors 4-2 and 2-1.

Odds on overs are falling down from 1.8 to 1.6 at bet365, but you can get 1.81 at betsafe or 1.75 at bwin, which is still good value in my opinion.
Small bet on over 2.5 is my choice today.

5 units - over 2.5@1.81 betsafe

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Banga 3-1 Dainava. Pick is won (+4.05 units)

Now, my opinion about what happened in the game:

Right... My bet was a winner quite early in to the game, but...
I saw the game and it was very "interesting'' from betting point of view. Odds were absolutely opposite to the flow of the game.
I'm not the one, who likes to blame somebody of fixing or the one who is looking for fixed matches, but I'll give you some numbers. Just numbers.
Before the game odds were 2.60 3.20 2.60 (something like that). Two equal teams. Before the game overs started to fall down till 1.60 from 1.80
After 30 minutes in the first half, result was still 0-0. Banga played a little bit better, but it was still goalless. Odds on Banga win dropped down to 1.61!!! Even the score was still 0-0, no red cards and not a massive advantage from home team. After 40 minutes still 0-0 and over 2.5 still trading at 1.80!!! Usually in such situation odds should rise till 2.50-3.00.
And surprise surprise, goal is scored on 43rd minute. Just before half time whistle and 1-0 to Banga.
Second half started steady. Dainava had perfect chance, but instead of giving ball to team mate, Dainava striker shoots himself clumsily into defender and ball is lost. Banga got the ball, quick attack 3 against 3. One Banga player on the right wing and two on the left. All three Dainava defenders suddenly run to the right after one attacker and of course ball is crossed to the left, were two absolutely free Banga players have no trouble scoring second goal.
Two minutes later similar situation, and another easy goal for Banga. I lost my nerves and just switched off channel. Just later I saw, that Dainava scored their goal three minutes later. Three goals in period from 66th minute till 72nd. Not usual, eh?
HT/FT, home win, over 2.5 and over 3.5, both teams to score - you name it. All picks - Spot OnSmile Sadly those picks are a little bit to late for my readers... Oh well, can't have it all. Let's be happy about one winning pick.
But I should be careful with Lithuanian picks, it's the end of football season and those things will happen once again. I'm pretty sure.

On Saturday were is another interesting game in Lithuanian A League. I'm not saying it will have the same scenario, but some numbers looks interesting.

15/10/2011 FC Klaipeda - Mazeikiai
Klaipeda are absolutely awful, they lost 17 matches in a row. I saw their last game against Kaunas, they lost away 1-5 and they were just terrible. They should have been playing in 3rd division, not A league.
Mazeikiai - are safe from relegation worries, they are 9th in the league.
One thing both team has in common - money. Or to be precise - absence of money. They don't have money at all. Klaipeda are not paid for couple of months, and Mazeikiai even refused to travel to Alytus for the game three weeks ago, and were given technical loss 0-3.
Odds on Klaipeda win started to fall from 7.00 till 5.25 at bwin and from 6.79 till 5.08 at Titanbet. Coincidence? Maybe. Would you bet on team who lost 17 in a row? Don't think so...
But I decided to make few small bets. Don't go over the top, if you follow my picks, but few quid won't make any harm at tasty odds.

2 units - Klaipeda AH0@5.50 bet365
2 units - over 3.5@2.50 bwin

Good luck! And remember - it's up to you to decide which bets to take.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Some selection in the Liverpool Man Utd game I like the odds of :

1st half asian corners over 5 is coming in at evens with bet365
Liverpool 1st half asian (0) is also appealing at evens

Headshot

Lads im not betting on it myself (have done my bets for the weekend) but J Evans 13/10 top be booked is really interesting

Evans if he starts (make sure he starts 1st) will have alot of trouble with Suarez

I can see him having big trouble

stingerro

Here are the over 1.5 goals tips for Saturday:

Derby vs Southampton (4 CET - 1.23).
Exeter vs Huddersfield (4 CET - 1.25)
Stevenage - Charlton (4 CET - 1.28)
Mansfield - Southport (4 CET - 1.22)
Altrincham - Vauxhall (4 CET - 1.15)
Cowdenbeath - Sterling (4 CET - 1.13)
Forfar - Abroath (4 CET - 1.12).
Stenhousemoir - Dumbarton (4 CET - 1.12)
Sassuolo - Albinoleffe (3 CET - 1.28)
Bayern Munich - Hertha Berlin (3.30 CET - 1.12)
Union Berlin - Karlsruhe (1 CET - 1.20)
Dortmund II - Mainz II (2 CET - 1.20)
Nurnberg II - Hessen Kassel (2 CET - 1.15)
Auxerre - Lille (7 CET - 1.33) :eek:
Brest - Caen (7 CET - 1.43) :eek:
St. Truiden - Beerschot (8 CET - 1.23)
Heracles - Groningen (7.45 CET - 1.15)
Waalwijk - Twente (7.45 CET - 1.18)
Diosgyor - Pecs (6 CET - 1.18)
Maccabi Petah Tikva - Ironi Ramat Hasharon (7.30 CET - 1.30)
Ceara - Flamengo (11 CET - 1.25)
Santiago Wanderers - La Serena (11.30 CET - 1.21)

Good luck

bradlente

Norwich -1 @10/3 and Bolton dnb @6/5 are 2 I'm tempted by today.Gone for 2 singles and a double.Norwich is a risky one,I was just looking for a nice price on them and feel to win the outright they're a little bit short.Bolton looks a very good bet to me though.


Over 1.5 - Liverpool v Man United: Total Goals U/O 1.5 2/7 Over 1.5 - Stevenage v Charlton: Total Goals U/O 1.5 2/7
Over 1.5 - Auxerre v Lille: Total Goals U/O 1.5 4/11
Over 1.5 - Brest v Caen: Total Goals U/O 1.5 4/9
Over 1.5 - Ajaccio v Paris St Germain: Total Goals U/O 1.5 3/10

Works out under 10/3.The french game odds on over 1.5 goals is definitely something to keep an eye on.There were a few more games that I omitted from my bet just because their odds were so poor,For instance a few dutch games filled the same criteria as those French games I've backed but the best price there was 1/6 and a few were 1/8,Decided to try keep it trim to ensure its a winner,Heres hoping....

bradlente

stingerro wrote: »

Here are the over 1.5 goals tips for Saturday:
Auxerre - Lille (7 CET - 1.33) :eek:
Brest - Caen (7 CET - 1.43) :eek:
Good luck

My thoughts exactly Stingerro!

stingerro

From other forum, trying to confirm it with other users:

Liga II Romania

Dunarea Galati - Dinamo II 1 local@1.20-1.25 bet365 give @1.9

Local bookie should know better than bet365, right?

bradlente

^Thats a strange one alright,How would ye go about trying to find what te local market is though?

bradlente

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2011/10/15/romania/liga-ii/fcm-dunarea-galati/sc-dinamo-1948-sa-bucuresti-ii/1182481/

Dunareas home form is class and Dinamos is fairly woeful.Combined with what that poster said about the local market suppose its worth a few quid.

stingerro

bradlente wrote: »

^Thats a strange one alright,How would ye go about trying to find what te local market is though?

You can't now, I went for it - hosts -0.5 1.95. In live you have them now 1.72.

stingerro

bradlente wrote: »

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2011/10/15/romania/liga-ii/fcm-dunarea-galati/sc-dinamo-1948-sa-bucuresti-ii/1182481/

Dunareas home form is class and Dinamos is fairly woeful.Combined with what that poster said about the local market suppose its worth a few quid.

I am regretting bet already after 7 minutes - odds for hosts In Play are 1.95 right now :eek:

SteelyDanJalapeno

stingerro wrote: »

From other forum, trying to confirm it with other users: Local bookie should know better than bet365, right?

Local bookies will have more people favouring the home team pushing down the odds as expected, no?

stingerro

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Local bookies will have more people favouring the home team pushing down the odds as expected, no?

But wouldn't this made a difference quite more aften between locals and big players? But it's first time ever I saw a post like that.

inforfun

Odds on AZ getting a result at Ajax tonight are nice i think.

AZ top of the league 1 loss in 8, away to Twente, all other matches won.
Solid defence and a real threat from free kicks and corners.
They might not have the best players but at the moment they have for sure the best team in Holland

Ajax are not exactly in great shape lately and will miss both their left and right defenders as well as their centre forward Sightorson

I go for AZ double chance @2.1