The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

stingerro

netnerd wrote: »

Whispers coming to me that Portuguesa "owe" Sport Recife a favour and 9/2 says it happens tonight.

Portuguesa need 1 point from their remaining 5 matches to secure promotion.

Recife need a couple of wins to put them in the promotion places...

Keep an eye on any moves, Im having an early night as Im full of cold. (I have taken the 9/2 nonetheless)

Good luck.

It's 5/1 now at bet365, market is going in totally opposite direction it seems.

shocksy

stingerro wrote: »

It's 5/1 now at bet365, market is going in totally opposite direction it seems.

It moved into 18/5 on will hills, back out to 4/1 now though, so 5/1 is a good price, still 9/2 on PP

SteelyDanJalapeno

What are the thoughts on Spain u21 handicaps?

should clear 2 against Estonia

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Glasgow City v Potsdam 10 November

Ladies match. I dont like betting on these mickey mouse matches but the gulf in class here is just jaw dropping

Potsdam beat Glasgow City 10-0

Fair enough Potsdam are already thru but I dont think they have a big squad to rotate so it should be another goal fest

got 11/10 on that

Looks pretty tasty

SteelyDanJalapeno

Headshot wrote: »

got 11/10 on that

Looks pretty tasty

On Postdam win? or was there a handicap?

Headshot

TiltedBrain wrote: »

What are the thoughts on Spain u21 handicaps?

should clear 2 against Estonia

yap looks a good bet

TiltedBrain wrote: »

On Postdam win? or was there a handicap?

oh sorry. Its for over 5.5 goals

Melion

netnerd wrote: »

Whispers coming to me that Portuguesa "owe" Sport Recife a favour and 9/2 says it happens tonight.

Portuguesa need 1 point from their remaining 5 matches to secure promotion.

Recife need a couple of wins to put them in the promotion places...

Keep an eye on any moves, Im having an early night as Im full of cold. (I have taken the 9/2 nonetheless)

Good luck.

SR are 1 up at half time

redarmy

Melion wrote: »

SR are 1 up at half time

1-1

slookie

2-1 now...

FOXFISH1

yea... not lookin good, sport cant seem to even get close to the target

FOXFISH1

hahaha 2-2 now!

redarmy

slookie wrote: »

2-1 now...

2-2:eek:

x PyRo

Keep the score updates to the other thread please lads.

pablo scholes

Kento wrote: »

Anyone else like the look of Annan Athletic (-1) vs Peterhead @7/5 tonight in the Scottish Third division? Annan are top with Peterhead 9th and although both teams played on saturday Peterhead have won once all season with Annan only losing once. Top versus second from bottom. Might get on the handicap and just the win @ 1/2. Any thoughts?

Great scouting cheers Kento

Yardie

Heading away on Thurs morning so won't really get chance to go through the cards and corners bets for Euro games before then.

All the games have strict refs so quite a good chance of cards with so much at stake, more in the 2nd legs though. There is very few markets up yet so hard to pick value prices


Stats wise
Corners: Under 10 corners in Estonia/Ireland and Czech/Montenegro anywhere around evens is very good bet. All teams have high % of unders.
Over 10 corners in Bosnia/Portugal and Turkey/Croatia look good bets too if around evens. Matches involving these teams have high % of over 10 corners

Cards: If you can get around evens on over 4 cards in any of the games then it's a good bet. Czech/Montenegro in particular.

The only bookies with full cards markets up are ladbrokes and Hills for the Bosnia/Portugal game. Howard Webb is in charge of this so could well be a card fest. Both sides met in playoffs for last world cup. 1st leg had 50 points, 2nd leg 85 points. Bosnia have been involved in a few card fests lately whereas Portugals discipline has been quite good but we have seen in recent years how they react if thing's aren't going their way.

Ladbrokes are offering some very interesting prices here Over 55 points is a huge 27/10 compared to Victor Chandlers 23/20 for over 55.

Free money alert
There is a decent arbing opportunity here if you put €200 on 27/10 with Lads returning €750, then on Vic Chandler back 35-55 points @ 23/10 -€175 returns €402 and €200 on under 35 points @ 15/8 returns €375. By doing this you have €0 risk and €175 profit if over 55 comes in. Adjust stakes to suit yourselves. Put more on at vic chand if you wanna lock in profit regardless of outcome.

Over 65 points on Ladbrokes is a massive 5/1. Which is far too big for a game with Webb reffing and so much at stake. WillHill is giving 12/5 for over 6 cards which is about right. Another arb opportunity on this too.

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-ie/football/european-championships/bosnia-vs-portugal-e215417841#

I don't think those prices will last on Ladbrokes so get on early if you fancy a bit of arbing. Also on Ladbrokes over 45 points is 6/4 which is a great price too if you looking for just a single.

Have a good wan!

inforfun

Following is based on what happened in the past and an certain "i backed them in the past and they did me good" feeling.

22.00 kick off
Universidad Catolica - Magellanes in the Chilean Cup
Bit of a weird format where a ****load of clubs play 8 matches in a kind of a league and the top 8 will move on to H/A knock out rounds.

Magellanes (2nd division) did cost me 1 or 2 accumulators, one where they drew won away against U de Chile* . That is when they caught my eye.
In the knock out stages i backed them away to Stg Morning @6 and away to La Serena @7 both were winners

So i feel i almost owe it to them to back them tonight @8 away to Catolica.

*(pretty sure that was the last time U de Chile has lost a match, they are on a 25 match unbeaten run in all competitions)

SteelyDanJalapeno

Wolfsburg V Cottsburg club friendly later, couple of reserve players in, good candidate for the overs.

RefulgentGnomon

Yardie wrote: »

Heading away on Thurs morning so won't really get chance to go through the cards and corners bets for Euro games before then.

All the games have strict refs so quite a good chance of cards with so much at stake, more in the 2nd legs though. There is very few markets up yet so hard to pick value prices


Stats wise
Corners: Under 10 corners in Estonia/Ireland and Czech/Montenegro anywhere around evens is very good bet. All teams have high % of unders.
Over 10 corners in Bosnia/Portugal and Turkey/Croatia look good bets too if around evens. Matches involving these teams have high % of over 10 corners

Cards: If you can get around evens on over 4 cards in any of the games then it's a good bet. Czech/Montenegro in particular.

The only bookies with full cards markets up are ladbrokes and Hills for the Bosnia/Portugal game. Howard Webb is in charge of this so could well be a card fest. Both sides met in playoffs for last world cup. 1st leg had 50 points, 2nd leg 85 points. Bosnia have been involved in a few card fests lately whereas Portugals discipline has been quite good but we have seen in recent years how they react if thing's aren't going their way.

Ladbrokes are offering some very interesting prices here Over 55 points is a huge 27/10 compared to Victor Chandlers 23/20 for over 55.

Free money alert
There is a decent arbing opportunity here if you put €200 on 27/10 with Lads returning €750, then on Vic Chandler back 35-55 points @ 23/10 -€175 returns €402 and €200 on under 35 points @ 15/8 returns €375. By doing this you have €0 risk and €175 profit if over 55 comes in. Adjust stakes to suit yourselves. Put more on at vic chand if you wanna lock in profit regardless of outcome.

Over 65 points on Ladbrokes is a massive 5/1. Which is far too big for a game with Webb reffing and so much at stake. WillHill is giving 12/5 for over 6 cards which is about right. Another arb opportunity on this too.

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-ie/football/european-championships/bosnia-vs-portugal-e215417841#

I don't think those prices will last on Ladbrokes so get on early if you fancy a bit of arbing. Also on Ladbrokes over 45 points is 6/4 which is a great price too if you looking for just a single.

Have a good wan!

Nice spot. Think the prices for 35-55 and under 35 are the wrong way round in your post but doesn't change the opportunity!

stingerro

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Wolfsburg V Cottsburg club friendly later, couple of reserve players in, good candidate for the overs.

Something similar from betaid.eu:

Match: Widzew Lodz - Ekranas
Pick: Widzew Lodz
League: Club Friendlies (International)
Date: 2011/11/9 15:00
Odds: 2.20
Bookmaker: 188bet

Ekranas just secured champions title on Sunday, they played with key players and I don 't understand why they decided to play friendly just two days after that. Players surely celebrated after final game of the season and had also a long trip by bus. Widzew have some players left for the national teams. As far as I understood Widzew will play with all the available players with several young players coming from second team. Even with a lot of players missing I think Widzew are stronger, they play with a lot fringe players who will try to prove their worth. Ekranas are also missing some players due to national team break and they already finishing season and have no motivation for this game.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Italy U20 Vs Ghana U20,

A small bet on Ghana here may be worth looking at, The african youth teams have always been fielding older players than what they are allowed, birth certs and passports can go "missing" if questioned! they usually win the physical battles in these games anyway.

stingerro

Barca is playing today at Hospitalet in 1st Copa del Rey match. In general even playing with 2nd string players they were doing well since Guardiola took over, but it would be interesting to check lineups before the match starts, as I saw two totally different versions:

Pinto - DosSantos Puyol Fontas Maxwell - SergiRoberto Keita Cesc - Deulofeu Villa Iniesta

Pinto

---Balliu----Gomez--Armando---Grimaldo

---

JDS

---

Roberto

---

Rafa/Espinso

----Gerard

---

Rafa/Soriano

---

Tello

If it would be the latter I could consider playing Hospitalet or draw for 9/2.

SteelyDanJalapeno

DNB at 12's.......

Lasagna Diarra

The New Saints (vs Neath) took them @2.00 yesterday, now the odds have dropped to 1.80

Apart from 2 draws against Bala Town and 1 defeat vs Port Talbot in the 2nd league game, they've won all the games and are in better form than Neath.

RefulgentGnomon

RefulgentGnomon wrote: »

Nice spot. Think the prices for 35-55 and under 35 are the wrong way round in your post but doesn't change the opportunity!

35-55 points is 3.1 on skybet, makes it even better!

Any chance points are calculated any differently with different bookies?

inforfun

stingerro wrote: »

Barca is playing today at Hospitalet in 1st Copa del Rey match. In general even playing with 2nd string players they were doing well since Guardiola took over, but it would be interesting to check lineups before the match starts, as I saw two totally different versions: If it would be the latter I could consider playing Hospitalet or draw for 9/2.

Some read on that match.

Match caught my eye last night already and could not imagine barca fielding a very strong team. But reading that yahoo piece it could even be worse than "not very strong"

stingerro

inforfun wrote: »

Some read on that match.

Match caught my eye last night already and could not imagine barca fielding a very strong team. But reading that yahoo piece it could even be worse than "not very strong"

I wouldn't trust brittish Eurosport when trying to predict Barca lineup. Both Marca (Madrid) and Sport (Barcelona) have a very similar line up to the one I posted, I mean this one with Villa, Fabregas, Puyol, etc...

inforfun

I dont know.
Fact is that Spain plays England and the U21 also play. Both take a considerable amount of players from Barca so there will not be much left for them to pick a team from.

But then again, Hospitalet is 3rd division.

yesno1234

Lads, sorry about the OT but do any of ye use moneybookers? How long does it take for a withdrawal to credit card ie when will the money be in your account? I figured three working days but no sign of the money in my account since my deposit on sunday night.

Cheers

keane2097

stingerro wrote: »

I wouldn't trust brittish Eurosport when trying to predict Barca lineup. Both Marca (Madrid) and Sport (Barcelona) have a very similar line up to the one I posted, I mean this one with Villa, Fabregas, Puyol, etc...

Those three are in the Spain squad for Saturday/Tuesday, I wouldn't expect them to play. Proceed with caution IMO.

stingerro

keane2097 wrote: »

Those three are in the Spain squad for Saturday/Tuesday, I wouldn't expect them to play. Proceed with caution IMO.

I wouldn't expect either... but I also know that spanish newspapers will probably know better than me (and you) regarding starting line ups.