The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

Grimsby still have value, 1.8 on Ladbrokes, get on while you can, expect Kettering's odds to drift a lot.

NabyLadistheman

Lads I know Kettering are weakened but how sure are we Grimsby will beat them. Don't seem to be going so well themselves!

keane2097

Suarezistheman wrote: »

Lads I know Kettering are weakened but how sure are we Grimsby will beat them. Don't seem to be going so well themselves!

This - anyone still steaming into Grimsby is a mug IMO. This knowledge has been public for days, the bookies obv know about it. The price adjustments since early enough yesterday are just to offset the money going on Grimsby.

It's not like B365's traders heard Kettering were missing one guy and said lets shorten Grimsby a bit, then heard they were missing another guy and shortened again, then realised the whole team was missing and went odds on like.

netnerd

Value can only ever be perceived, as odds making is not an exact science.

The "smart" money was on Grimsby at 2.4+, the next wave of steam took it down to around evens, and then the sheep came on board and took it down to 1.7.

I hope the money keeps coming, as then I can get rid of a large chunk of it cheaply.

Shame on PP and the rest of the bookies that simply took it down. Everything has a price, and to simply take down the match instead of trying to find that price, is a sign of lazy and weak bookmaking.

Lister1

El Pistolero wrote: »

What about Newcastle @ 9/1 to beat United on Saturday.

Great odds imo and well worth putting a small wager on them.

keysersoze0330

Newc +2 at 5/6 with Boyles, 4/6 pp

Derek!

keysersoze0330 wrote: »

Newc +2 at 5/6 with Boyles, 4/6 pp

Great price IMO, but it would be so typical of United to go and win 4-0 out of nowhere when I bet against them :rolleyes:

keysersoze0330

Derek! wrote: »

Great price IMO, but it would be so typical of United to go and win 4-0 out of nowhere when I bet against them :rolleyes:

Yeah that would be typical! Just don't fancy them to win tomorrow for some reason

Fowler87

That 2/1 for Bolton to beat Everton is way too big for a home team especially as they beat a decent Stoke team 5-0 in their last home game who are probably on par with Everton.

Derek!

keysersoze0330 wrote: »

Yeah that would be typical! Just don't fancy them to win tomorrow for some reason

Same here, and chances are if they do it will be a 1-0 or 2-1 with how they been playin lately

Derek!

I like Newcastle or draw @ 12/5, yum yum

netnerd

Huge sums trying to get on Otopeni tomorrow in Romania B. No mainstream bookies have prices yet. I have no info on this game, will try find out.

netnerd

netnerd wrote: »

Huge sums trying to get on Otopeni tomorrow in Romania B. No mainstream bookies have prices yet. I have no info on this game, will try find out.

Where're you hearing this?

unitedrover

Valencia 11/10 away to Rayo Vallecano. Seems a great price considering they won 7-0 against Genk and with Soldado in such good form. Or am I missing something?

keane2097

unitedrover wrote: »

Valencia 11/10 away to Rayo Vallecano. Seems a great price considering they won 7-0 against Genk and with Soldado in such good form. Or am I missing something?

The fact that they played in Europe midweek?

SteelyDanJalapeno

PEACEBROTHER wrote: »

trying to get fifty on but they wont even talk to me on live help ?
I tell them im trying to bet on kiddiminster match and they just leave session ( Powers )

Kettering.........

Headshot wrote: »

pp were smart they never had a market

I had to ring them up for a dnb @ a crap 8/15

They had a market for a brief period yesterday morning between 9 and 12, theire some joke tbh,

robbie1977 wrote: »

I think PP have a mole in the private forum.

How were they the only bookie with no odds for this match for most of the day .

There was 8 matches in that Romanian league match saturday morning and they had live betting on 7 of the 8 matches and left out 1.

Robbie's the mole!

Best price on Grimsby when I posted the tip was 8/5, that bookies has now gone to 1/2,

97.5% of the money on this game on betfair has gone down on Grimsby, 39k so far,

unitedrover

keane2097 wrote: »

The fact that they played in Europe midweek?

But they were at home and with such an easy win, the Genk game can only be a positive (unless the scoreline was flattering, didnt see the game)

PaddyTheNth

Derek! wrote: »

I like Newcastle or draw @ 12/5, yum yum

Tasty. Not much else I fancy other than swansea and bolton at home.

keane2097

unitedrover wrote: »

But they were at home and with such an easy win, the Genk game can only be a positive (unless the scoreline was flattering, didnt see the game)

Yeah sorry I suppose I was a bit glib there, basically my position would be that the line-setters haven't plucked 11/10 out of the sky, in the absence of any compelling info to the contrary it's probably pretty close.

Have you checked what their results have been like after home ECL games in the past (not just this season)? There might be some value if they've performed badly after them other times, whereas as you say the impact might not be as big as usual after this particular game.

EDIT: It's the same price on BF without commission factored in so 11/10 is probably a tiny edge, I wouldn't be steaming into it or anything though.

unitedrover

keane2097 wrote: »

Yeah sorry I suppose I was a bit glib there, basically my position would be that the line-setters haven't plucked 11/10 out of the sky, in the absence of any compelling info to the contrary it's probably pretty close.

Have you checked what their results have been like after home ECL games in the past (not just this season)? There might be some value if they've performed badly after them other times, whereas as you say the impact might not be as big as usual after this particular game.

EDIT: It's the same price on BF without commission factored in so 11/10 is probably a tiny edge, I wouldn't be steaming into it or anything though.

Looking at performance after Champions league games this season, Valencia have 3 wins (1-0,1-0,2-0) and a 1-1 draw. Big worry though is speculation over Soldado being rested.

buckfasterer

The news gets worse for Kettering......the players brought in on loan aren't sanctioned by the league!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/15880214.stm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

wp_rathead

Over 1.5 Accum for the evening

1 Over 1.5,2.0 Erzgebirge Aue v MSV Duisburg
(Alternative Goal Line) 25/11/2011 None 1.375 To Run
2 Over 1.5 AZ v FC Utrecht
(Alternative Total Goals) 25/11/2011 None 1/8 To Run
3 Over 1.5,2.0 Genclerbirligi v Fenerbahce
(Alternative Goal Line) 25/11/2011 None 1.35 To Run
4 Over 1.5,2.0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Varteks Varazdin
(Alternative Goal Line) 25/11/2011 None 1.325 Lose
5 Over 1.0,1.5 Slask Wroclaw v Wisla Krakow
(Alternative Goal Line) 25/11/2011 None 1.26 To Run

Comes to 2.49/1

Didn't last long haha

wp_rathead

buckfasterer wrote: »

The news gets worse for Kettering......the players brought in on loan aren't sanctioned by the league!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/15880214.stm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

and better for us:D:D

keane2097

unitedrover wrote: »

Looking at performance after Champions league games this season, Valencia have 3 wins (1-0,1-0,2-0) and a 1-1 draw. Big worry though is speculation over Soldado being rested.

So there probably isn't any value based on the ease of their midweek game then.

If you want to find value in this one what I would do is find out when the team is being announced, be ready with my bet slip open and my 11/10 up on it, then if Soldado is in the team get the loot on, otherwise you're probably taking a neutral/slightly negative EV spot.

Good luck with the bet regardless!

stingerro

Not sure if there's any value left (Bet365 - 1.40 for win, 1.65 for -1, 2.15 for -1.5), but still will share. From Betting Advice Croatian tipster:

2011-11-26 Šibenik - Hajduk by: Muuki (25-11-2011 10:58 CET)

It is now official - Šibenik will play with youth squad as 1st team players didn't get the wages and refused to play. Junior players simply can't handle Hajduk at the moment and after rather humiliating loss 1:0 away to Lokomotiva Hajduk simply must win to get back on track. They must secure 2nd position as soon as possible anything but the clear away win would be shocking result. FULL STAKES, i expect these odds to be about 1.35... GL
Pick: A, Odds: 1.57, Stake: 10, Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Good luck.

mike65

Another Croatian side, Karlovac are in the soup. Wages unpaid and the players had a sit down protest last week so the game was abandoned.

GEasy

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Kettering.........



They had a market for a brief period yesterday morning between 9 and 12, theire some joke tbj

They also had it up for an hour around 3pm yesterday too

bradlente

Don't know how good that news is about Kettering tbh.They need to field a team if we're gna have any chance of getting paid out lets not forget.

If they can't fill up the bench is that match abandoned?

cup of tea

PP have market back up

wp_rathead

cup of tea wrote: »

PP have market back up

ha only 6 markets:rolleyes:

for those who were late to it, this looks best of those bets:
HT/FT - Grimbsy/Grimbsy @ 6/4