The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

Leeg17 · 29-11-2011 1:11am

Have Barca (-1) HT @ 6/5, and a City win @ 13/10.

Barca DNB is 1/200 on PP :pac:

Yardie · 29-11-2011 2:00am

Arb Opportunity- but not w/o risk

Barcelona/Vallecano

Bet 365 :Over 4.5 Asian cards @ 7/10 €500 returns €850. €350 profit

William Hill: Under 45 points card index @ 9/4. €250 returns €812.50. €562.50 profit

Vallecano get a lot of cards away from home so likely to be high index game and most bookies have priced it like that bar 365

So if Over 4.5 comes in you get €100 profit with 365 and under 45 points then €62.5 profit

Now here is the risk. If there is just two yellow cards and one red card in the game the match will finish with exactly 45 points so both bets would lose as 2 yellows and a red = only 4 cards with Bet365.
Two reds would also have the same result.

Maybe some others have ideas or others options to make this opportunity risk free.

applehunter · 29-11-2011 5:21am

Middlesbrough standout 13/8 at home to West Ham tomorrow.

stingerro · 29-11-2011 8:54am

Interesting pick from BettingAdvice forum, seriously considering it, despite not being a fan of betting on African football (but yesterday I cashed on Brazilian basketball, so...)

League: CECAFA Cup
Starting time: 12.00 (29.11.2011)

Rwanda -Zimbabwe

GAME PICK- Rwanda
ODDS: 2.30 Bet365
STAKE: 7/10

This is 35 edition of Cecafa Cup and its playing in Tanzania. First game Rwanda was win against Tanzania (last year champion) with result 1-0. Sredojevic Milutin coach of Rwanda was say that their target is to win this year Cecafa Cup.

Zimbabwe Norman Mapeza was say that this cup is just to try some new players, and that 3 games in group stage is enuff but everything other like to go in next phase of tournament will be bonus.

Mapeza was call many new players like rookies Tinashe Masika, FC Platinum's Joel Ngodzo, Gunners Cliff Sekete and Leonard Fiyado and many more players, reason is that he cant count on players of Motor Action and Dynamos club cause they was have yesterday game in final of league cup.

Also coach of Zimbabwe was say that they had challenges with some players complaining of stomach pains, possibly due to change of diet and weather.

Important to say is that Rwanda was have 3 days to rest for this game, while Zimbabwe just 2 days.

keysersoze0330 · 29-11-2011 10:43am

Going for a real longshot for starters today, prob do a larger single on something later also when i get a better chance to study it

€10 on

Barrow
Fleetwood-1
over 2.5 in Reading, Derby, Leicester and Southampton games

pays €310 with pp

Might try a small bit on Fleetwood town to be leading at 20mins at 15/8

FOXFISH1 · 29-11-2011 10:46am

Anyone know if the Chelsea v Pool match is on tv tonight?

Super-Rush · 29-11-2011 10:53am

FOXFISH1 wrote: »

Anyone know if the Chelsea v Pool match is on tv tonight?

Highlights on BBC2 at 11 is all.

Nuri Sahin · 29-11-2011 11:01am

Man City @ 11/8

Messi FGS @ 9/5

Probably have a goalscorer bet on the Liverpool game depending on line up as well.

keysersoze0330 · 29-11-2011 11:02am

putting €50 on all 8 championship games going over 1.5 goals
Pays €300 pp. Thats me for today

Jax Teller · 29-11-2011 11:03am

FOXFISH1 wrote: »

Anyone know if the Chelsea v Pool match is on tv tonight?

Liveonlinefooty have it so It must be on tv somewhere . Should be plenty of streams I'd imagine .

hefferboi · 29-11-2011 11:12am

Accumulator:

Southampton @ 4/7 (vs Hull)
Millwall @ 8/11 (vs Doncaster)
Bristol @ 2/1 (vs Watford)
Draw @ 9/4 (Middlesborough vs West Ham)
12 or more corners @ 11/10 (Arsenal vs City)

SteelyDanJalapeno · 29-11-2011 11:17am

Fleetwood would wood Fleetwood,

-2 asian on 365 @ evens.

wp_rathead · 29-11-2011 11:36am

FOXFISH1 wrote: »

Anyone know if the Chelsea v Pool match is on tv tonight?

streamed live on bet365

looking hard to find decent bet tonight, only thing i fancy really is the Over 11 corners in Arsenal v City game

Also went for 2or3 goals in Napoli v Juve tonight @ 20/21

keane2097 · 29-11-2011 11:38am

Yardie wrote: »

Arb Opportunity- but not w/o risk

Barcelona/Vallecano

Bet 365 :Over 4.5 Asian cards @ 7/10 €500 returns €850. €350 profit

William Hill: Under 45 points card index @ 9/4. €250 returns €812.50. €562.50 profit

Vallecano get a lot of cards away from home so likely to be high index game and most bookies have priced it like that bar 365

So if Over 4.5 comes in you get €100 profit with 365 and under 45 points then €62.5 profit

Now here is the risk. If there is just two yellow cards and one red card in the game the match will finish with exactly 45 points so both bets would lose as 2 yellows and a red = only 4 cards with Bet365.
Two reds would also have the same result.

Maybe some others have ideas or others options to make this opportunity risk free.

It's a high enough ROI of ~11% which would make it a fantastic Arb, don't know enough in terms of stats about games finishing on exactly four cards in order to quantify the risk, but I'd be wary.

If it was something like an American Football HC and the risk point (i.e. the 4 card mark for this bet) was at three points you're at a much greater risk than you are at any other point. Since both books have 4 cards as their inflection point that suggests exactly four cards is probably a fairly regular finishing mark.

I'm probably going to leave it off tbh, but nice spot.

Warper · 29-11-2011 11:50am

keysersoze0330 wrote: »

putting €50 on all 8 championship games going over 1.5 goals
Pays €300 pp. Thats me for today

Dont like that at all - 8 games is simply too much - you'd be better picking off picking 3 over 2.5 goal games.

keysersoze0330 · 29-11-2011 11:53am

Warper wrote: »

Dont like that at all - 8 games is simply too much - you'd be better picking off picking 3 over 2.5 goal games.

Possibly so, done now anyway so fingers crossed;)

Flashdean · 29-11-2011 12:10pm

Fleetwood -2 13/10

And Tamworth evens

Boylesports!

keane2097 · 29-11-2011 12:12pm

Why do people still think betting against Kettering is value? Madness.

keysersoze0330 · 29-11-2011 12:13pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Why do people still think betting against Kettering is value? Madness.

How is it 'madness'

keane2097 · 29-11-2011 12:17pm

keysersoze0330 wrote: »

How is it 'madness'

It's madness because it's based on information that the bookies have been in possession of for over a week and have clearly adjusted to.

The fact that PP are offering the best odds on Kettering should be telling people something.

Flashdean · 29-11-2011 12:17pm

keane2097 wrote: »

Why do people still think betting against Kettering is value? Madness.

There last 6 games they have W0 D2 L4

Conceading 13 goals

There stuck in a rut at the moment

keane2097 · 29-11-2011 12:19pm

People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.

Lasagna Diarra · 29-11-2011 12:22pm

4 singles:

Draw @ HT in these games:
Reading - Peterborough
Leicester - Blackpool
Chelsea - Liverpool
Arsenal - Man City

I'm particularly confident about Reading, 4 of their last 5 games (and 4 of their last 5 HOME games) were draws at HT (they conceded after just 2 min vs Cardiff but then the other goals came after HT).

http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/reading-fc/

Also, 4 of Leicester's last 5 games were draws at HT, and 3 of Blackpool's last 5 games were draws at HT.

http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/leicester-city-fc/
http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/blackpool-fc/

Flashdean · 29-11-2011 12:22pm

keane2097 wrote: »

People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.

Yes we have fleetwood WILL win! thus being a winner!

keane2097 · 29-11-2011 12:27pm

Flashdean wrote: »

Yes we have fleetwood WILL win! thus being a winner!

lol, exactly.

inforfun · 29-11-2011 1:03pm

keane2097 wrote: »

People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.

At least a bit of reasoning of why those picks have been made would be nice at times.

Last night i put a treble down here of Juve\Man City\Barca match over 3,5

Why Juve? It will be Napoli's 3rd match in 6 days. Juve are flying and have no European football to worry about.
Man City? 2nd string Arse has not much chance vs 2nd string City i fear.
Barca has a point to proof after losing last weekend.

Clearly these are not bankers but this is how i think those matches turn out.

I usually try to find things that are not on everybody's radar here.

Didnt make much sense to post last night my bet of home wins in Dusseldorf/Charlton and Malaga. Everybody was on those games.

IfreedTheweed · 29-11-2011 1:11pm

keane2097 wrote: »

People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.

It's easy to say something like that without posting winners yourself isn't it.

elefant · 29-11-2011 1:12pm

stingerro wrote: »

Interesting pick from BettingAdvice forum, seriously considering it, despite not being a fan of betting on African football (but yesterday I cashed on Brazilian basketball, so...)

Crap, just got up to see that there but Rwanda are one up already.

keane2097 · 29-11-2011 1:14pm

IfreedTheweed wrote: »

It's easy to say something like that without posting winners yourself isn't it.

Whatever dude, I'm just trying to give people a bit of advice that blindly backing events just because you think they'll win is a short road to bustoville.

The lack of consideration given to the pricing of bets ITT is alarming.

ff9999 · 29-11-2011 1:16pm

Cardiff v Blackburn, Chelsea v Liverpool, Arsenal v Man City

Both Teams to Score @ 3/1

OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 5/1

OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 24/1

The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

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