The Football / Soccer Tips Thread

grohlisagod

Barcelona to score first 27th minute or under is 10/11 tonight. Messi usually covers this on his own at the Camp Nou. Looks the only bet of any real value on that game to me.

It's 5/6 now.

FOXFISH1

Liverpool - They have only failed to find the back of the net once in 41 League Cup outings - a 2-0 away defeat to Chelsea in the 2007 quarter-finals.

Yardie

keane2097 wrote: »

It's a high enough ROI of ~11% which would make it a fantastic Arb, don't know enough in terms of stats about games finishing on exactly four cards in order to quantify the risk, but I'd be wary.

If it was something like an American Football HC and the risk point (i.e. the 4 card mark for this bet) was at three points you're at a much greater risk than you are at any other point. Since both books have 4 cards as their inflection point that suggests exactly four cards is probably a fairly regular finishing mark.

I'm probably going to leave it off tbh, but nice spot.

Chance of 45 exactly and only 4 cards is very very low but funnily enough this happened in Vallecano's last home game and in one of the last 10 games reffed by ref tonight Lasa.

Bet365 have moved their line to over 5.5 now which is still below the rest of the bookies line of over 65 points. So bookies are expecting a high card game which I am too.

Paddy Power have quoted me 12/1 on exactly 45 points in game. So to minimise risk €60 on that returns €720 profit. So if worst comes to worst will be down €30 if 45 lands. Up €40 is over 4.5 comes in on bet365 an up a €2.50 with Hills

Yardie

Arbing aside. the Barca/Vallecano game looks ripe for cards

The ref is Lasa who has been dishing them out for fun lately. His last two games have seen 18 yellows and 2 reds.

Vallecano are extremely aggressive away from home and some of their players have been picking up a huge amount of cards. Betfair only place with market at moment so taken a couple of lads @ evens. PP may quote better price

Jose Casado . Full back. 6 cards in 11 this season. 8 yellows in last 11 away games.

Javi Fuego. Defensive Midfielder. 3 cards in last 4 games

And if he starts Alejandro Garrido. 6 cards in 11 this year and 7 yellows in last 9 away games.

keane2097

Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...

Shane St.

keane2097 wrote: »

Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...

the liverpool official site usually puts out the liverpool team a good hour before kick off. this is their twitter
http://twitter.com/#!/lfc

just follow sites like teamtalk on twitter usually put it out in good time.

iMuse

keane2097 wrote: »

Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...

Follow as many english journos as you can on twitter, they are normally always first with the news imo

keane2097

iMuse wrote: »

Follow as many english journos as you can on twitter, they are normally always first with the news imo

Any suggestions?

Nuri Sahin

Added Over 2.5 goals and over 75 in card index in Barca match @ 7/4.

Headshot

Emailed pp about odds on David Luiz and Frimpong to be booked last night and still no odds

They are very a frustrating bookie

buckfasterer

keane2097 wrote: »

iMuse wrote: »

Follow as many english journos as you can on twitter, they are normally always first with the news imo

Any suggestions?

Ollie holt, Phil mc nulty, Henry winter, Martin lipton.

stingerro

Apparently Cavani is out of the Napoli-Juventus match because of injury.

gudede

inforfun wrote: »

Why Juve? It will be Napoli's 3rd match in 6 days. Juve are flying and have no European football to worry about.

I agree that Napoli's 3rd match in 6 days will effect them, but they rested a couple of players at the weekend and Lavezzi & Inter are back after missing the weekend game but Cavani is out injured. Napoli have won the last four fixtures at home against Juventus...

Napoli's home form is abit rocky this season over the champions league, with them winning two, drawing two and losing two. Juventus are unbeaten in the league this season and their away record is three wins and two draw's.

Napoli have kept three clean sheets at home this season and Juventus have kept three clean sheets on the road this season. So with the news that Cavani is out and that both teams will not want to lose this match and probably try and keep things tight I have decided to back a nil all result @ 8/1. The bet is probably under's but I don't like backing under's at odds on.

Another bet I like tonight is over2.5 goals in the Burnley V Ipswich @ 13/20. Burnley have played at home nine times in this season and six of those games have gone over 2.5 goals (that included their last three home games going over 2.5) in fact there last seven games have gone over 2.5 goals.

Ipswich have played on the road eight times this season and five times have over 2.5 came in, there last three away games have gone over 2.5 goals and there last five games have gone over 2.5 goals.

This fixture the last three times have gone over 2.5 goals.

alfalion

keane2097 wrote: »

Do people have any opinions about what site is first/quickest with team news typically?

Or what Twitter feeds tend maybe? I'm specifically looking to find out the Liverpool and Chelsea team news as soon as possible today...

Fantasy football scout have a good twitter system with all the clubs

inforfun

stingerro wrote: »

Apparently Cavani is out of the Napoli-Juventus match because of injury.

Just read the same thing on the Dutch football website i frequent.

keane2097

inforfun wrote: »

Just read the same thing on the Dutch football website i frequent.

Is that breaking news?

Smithwicks Man

Yes Cavani appears to be out alright which will be a huge blow.. Juve won't walk it but I can see them winning by 1/2 goals.
Gone for a double of
Man City Draw No Bet and
Juventus Draw No Bet. Playin' it a bit safe but 2.43/1 is still good odds i think!
27 quid gives back just over 91.

Also jumping on board with headshot and I've requested odds for both frimpong and luiz to be booked as well as de jong. Still waiting on a reply mind you :rolleyes:

keane2097

Yeah hopped on Juve at 85/40 on VC a second ago.

Yardie

I took 5/2 on Frimpong card on Unibet. Also small bit on Frimpong red @ 24/1.

Still searching for Luiz odds. Bookies say won't give price as game isn't televised:rolleyes:

SteelyDanJalapeno

keane2097 wrote: »

People should investigate the difference between picking winners and picking bets imo.

keane2097 wrote: »

Yeah hopped on Juve at 85/40 on VC a second ago.

:rolleyes:

SteelyDanJalapeno

Yardie wrote: »

I took 5/2 on Frimpong card on Unibet. Also small bit on Frimpong red @ 24/1.

Still searching for Luiz odds. Bookies say won't give price as game isn't televised:rolleyes:

As netnerd mentioned yesterday, Boyles will always give you odds, give them a buzz.

keane2097

TiltedBrain wrote: »

:rolleyes:

What's the rolleyes about?

Juventus were 9/4 with Cavani playing all day, 9/4 with Cavani missing is obv therefore a correct bet.

209/100 on BF in a liquid market without factoring in commission vs 85/40 with a bookmaker is a bet all day long.

Smithwicks Man

Is there a split opinion on whether or not Juventus is a good pick for tonight?
11/10 DNB is a great bet imo.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Cavani being the reason you jumped on stumps me, he's overrated, 4 in his last 10 games, hardly a massive loss..............

Yardie

TiltedBrain wrote: »

As netnerd mentioned yesterday, Boyles will always give you odds, give them a buzz.

I rang Boyles and they wouldnt give me a price.

keane2097

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Cavani being the reason you jumped on stumps me, he's overrated, 4 in his last 10 games, hardly a massive loss..............

Cool beans yo.

stiffler123

Blackburn 12/5 against Cardiff looks good to me.

wp_rathead

Yardie wrote: »

Arbing aside. the Barca/Vallecano game looks ripe for cards

The ref is Lasa who has been dishing them out for fun lately. His last two games have seen 18 yellows and 2 reds.

Vallecano are extremely aggressive away from home and some of their players have been picking up a huge amount of cards. Betfair only place with market at moment so taken a couple of lads @ evens. PP may quote better price

Jose Casado . Full back. 6 cards in 11 this season. 8 yellows in last 11 away games.

Javi Fuego. Defensive Midfielder. 3 cards in last 4 games

And if he starts Alejandro Garrido. 6 cards in 11 this year and 7 yellows in last 9 away games.

Great picks Yardie

Also in this game, both Busquets and Pique just 1 booking away from suspension for Barca. chances are they'll get themselves booked and miss game against Levante in order to be around for the Real Madrid game;)

so the Over 5.5 cards in this match looks a cert

EDIT: just looking at odds for them to get booked on betfair, they down to 4/11 for Pique and 1/2 for Busquets.. fairly pathetic odds, not worth a punt

SteelyDanJalapeno

Anyone still looking at Kettering, Keeper is still suspended along with Navarro who was decent Saturday, McKenzie and Ifill are also injury doubts,

Ketts looking at calling more non contracted youth players,

Unfortunately no value left in the markets.

Headshot

ya the 5/6 on the -1 went in no time