Longshot Saturday

longshotvalue

Betfair Summer Double Second Leg Stakes Goodwood 3:50

My kind of race here and on an immediate glimpse I’m drawn to the chance of Atlantic Sport placing at a huge price. He has similar conditions to his last 7 Furlong run at Ascot in that he has the Good-Soft ground he is possibly better on. He is 5-7 Pounds better off than those who oppose from that race namely Noble Citizen and Bronze Prince, and although he doesn’t have the best of the draw still may be capable of getting into the race at the end and 40/1 EW looks decent Value.

As I can’t see him winning it, I've had a good look down the field for soft ground horses, as it looks as if the ground may be a bit softer than the Good-Soft official going. One that sticks out as value today and often is much shorter in similar races in Manassas. He won well earlier this year in a similar race at Ascot on soft ground of 3 lbs. lower, but has run well since a few times of higher marks without getting much luck in running, and has a few points in his favour today, including a good draw which is vital around here and he is down to a mark of 98 which should give him a chance. He is a consistent sort in these races and if he gets a bit of luck in running, which is more likely today as he usually races up with the pace and has been trying to come from behind a few times since, he stands an excellent chance at his current price of 22/1. He looks set to go off a bit shorter than that as he generally seems to be backed in these races.
I don’t see anyone doing 5 places at the moment unfortunately.


Atlantic Sport 1 Point EW 40/1 Ladbrokes & numerous others
Manassas 2 Points EW 22/1 VC, Boyles, Bet365

longshotvalue

Betfair Celebration Mile 3:20 Goodwood.

An interesting race, but straight away Dubawi Gold looks a bit of value here. A lot depends on the running of the fav Poets Voice, but the stable did say earlier on this week that he may improve for the run after his long break and he looks too short in the betting. My selection has had only 1 poor race this year and other than that run has been consistent all year. According to the Jockey he will be better on the softer ground and on his last run looks very likely to turn the tables on Beacon Lodge, given that he didn’t get a clear run. The combination of being the only 3yo getting the allowance and the ground make him look value at the readily available 5/1.

2 Points win 5/1

yaaaboy

Atlantic Sport non runner

Best of luck with the new thread

longshotvalue

100,000 Tattersalls Millions Median Auction Stakes 2:30 Newmarket

This race looks to be at the mercy of the Fav but having a look for the place value here one that sticks out is Wahylah. She had a decent debut at Ascot on Good-Soft, and ran well again when 5th in a very hot Sweet Solara at Newmarket. Looking at the other contenders for place money, there is not a lot between this and some of the runners that are 1/4 of her price. Im hopeful the Softer Ground will make it a bit of a test and 11.5 on betfair to place at the moment looks at least 4 points too big. Ill have to have a small win bet just in case at 65.

Wahylah .5 Point win 65 Betfair 1.5 Point Place 11.5 Betfair

longshotvalue

I’m going to have a 1pt EW Bet on monsieur chevalier at 25/1 for the Betfred Sprint Cup next week before he runs today. I’d like to see him run well, but he could easily have a training spin for the bigger target next week. Should he walk this race as he should he will half in price..


1 PT EW Betfred Sprint Cup 25/1 Various

longshotvalue

totepool Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes 3:35 Beverly

With all the non runners Captain Dunnes Price of 5/1 Available with Ladbrokes looks 1.5 point too big. I realsise he is drawn wide, but his form of late is the best in this field and that price represents value. his last run on siniliar ground in the Nunthorpe reads very well in the context of this race as does his last 3-4 runs.

2 Points win 5/1 Ladbrokes

hawaii501

Thank you for the tip completely forgot Dubawi Gold was running, by the way what a great ride by Hughes:D:D:D

longshotvalue

Ok day today if a bit unlucky in places

Atlantic Sport and Wahylah were non runners

Dubawi Gold , won well after being backed into 3/1 +10 Points
Captain Dunne, went for gap that never appeared so his chance was gone. -2 Points
Manassas, had a great draw but broke poorly and got shuffled back to the back which gave him no chance at all. Next time maybe. -4 Points


+ 4 Points today not so bad..