Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

jimmynokia

WEATHER WARNING ISSUED

http://t.co/tGwYlya

zenno

track tropical storm katia http://www.stormpulse.com/

Kippure

James maddens lastest thoughts on The Storm.



Hurricane Katia - Weather Warning


Hurricane Katia started out as a category one hurricane, which will dissipate to a large scale low pressure system as it approaches the UK and Ireland, due to the lack of heat in the North Atlantic in comparison to its origin. Many parts of the UK are therefore likely to experience strong to damaging gale force winds that could exceed 90mph in some places, with stormy features throughout Sunday and Monday at present, and as originally forecast in the autumn update last week. The regions at risk of the most disruption at present include many parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England, although most if not all of the UK is at the risk of severe gales. There is also a high probability for very heavy rainfall across many parts, with the potential for flooding in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and many coastal regions. If an update is required due to any major changes then one will be posted, in the meantime it would also be advisable to keep up to date with local and national weather warnings.

A very interesting article I also came across on Katia in the link below, features John Cangialosi from the US National Hurricane Center, who said it would change from a tropical storm to a "classic wintertime storm" by the time it reached Scotland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-14851926

Now a “classic wintertime storm” to me generally consists of SNOW or ICE in American and English terminology. Any UK snow in September would certainly raise a few eyebrows, whilst also exceeding my expectations of early snowfall in October and November.

Based on the meteorological credentials of John Cangialosi and his terminology of “classic wintertime storm”, I decided to give his comments some further thought, and snow is not actually an impossibility, if that is what he means, although he may just be referring to the characteristics incorrectly?

However, extratropical cyclones from cooler atmospheric conditions and cyclone tilting, allow cool air to be drawn into the circulation, and the low pressure system transitions from warm to cold.

So could we see snow in Scotland and other parts of the UK from this severe bout of weather? and is this what John Cangialosi means? Only time will tell as to how things will develop, but his statement does make scientific sense if the scenario unfolds as I explained, and the conditions are right.


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 10th September 2011 (07:21) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

redsteveireland

jimmynokia wrote: »

WEATHER WARNING ISSUED

http://t.co/tGwYlya

As usual they have used old info. Things have changed since then.

muffler

UK met office has issued a storm warning for N.I.

Issued at - 10 Sep 2011, 11:38
Valid from - 12 Sep 2011, 00:00
Valid to - 12 Sep 2011, 23:59

The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of wet and very windy weather. There remains some uncertainty about its track and intensity, although Scotland and Northern Ireland are most likely to bear the brunt of the winds,

The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures.

Pangea

ME have updated their warning but it looks pretty much the same
ssued at 10 September 2011 - 11:09
Severe Weather Warning
Stormy weather is likely to develop late Sunday night and continue much of Monday with coastal counties of Connaught and Ulster most at risk.
Southwest winds could gust between 100 and 130 km/hr in exposed areas. Very high waves expected on west, northwest and north coasts on Monday with wave heights between 6 and 10 metres.

Pangea

What would be the best time to head out and take pics of full tide/high waves?

sunbabe08

Pangea wrote: »

What would be the best time to head out and take pics of full tide/high waves?

some one said the high tide around the donegal coast was in the morning on monday

cherryghost

High tide along the NI coast is between 6-7am

smallwonder

High tide at Killybegs at 0635 and 1843

km79

What the rainfall potential from this event

Harps

Probably some heavy showers but nothing major, western Scotland looks to be getting most of the rain

Max wind gust from the 6z GFS, potential of +80 knot gusts on the west Donegal coast, shame I wont be on Arranmore for the day

Mc Love

Are strong winds still expected in the west/southwest?

Pangea

All of west Donegal is in the red there happy days.
The BBC Met Office have big warnings out for NI. So it should be pretty bad there too.

Redsunset

Just in case Ex KATIA does decide to play silly games,here is the 6pm BBC news showing the damage of 1987.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umow5DSrP6E

darkman2

My opinion is that people vulnerable to the coasts in the west need to take action to deal with a possible surge at high tide (sand bags etc). Another risk increasingly likely is minor structural damage to property which could occur anywhere but the worst will be in the West and North West. The falling trees branches etc could cause traffic disruption in the cities around the country. This will be a reasonably short lived event - the real risk period for very severe winds being 00:00 on Monday to 09:00 on Monday morning and then very strong winds through to 00:00 on Tuesday - a bit longer then that probably but the winds will be significantly weaker by Tuesday morning.

IMO I don't see any cause for alarm going on the latest model runs away from the far Northwest tbh. They are taking the track closer and closer with each run so that trend is something worth watching today for those further Southeast who might want a piece of this action.

Iancar29

darkman2 wrote: »

My opinion is that people vulnerable to the coasts in the west need to take action to deal with a possible surge at high tide (sand bags etc). Another risk increasingly likely is minor structural damage to property which could occur anywhere but the worst will be in the West and North West. The falling trees branches etc could cause traffic disruption in the cities around the country. This will be a reasonably short lived event - the real risk period for very severe winds being 00:00 on Monday to 09:00 on Monday morning and then very strong winds through to 00:00 on Tuesday - a bit longer then that probably but the winds will be significantly weaker by Tuesday morning.

IMO I don't see any cause for alarm going on the latest model runs away from the far Northwest tbh. They are taking the track closer and closer with each run so that trend is something worth watching today for those further Southeast who might want a piece of this action.

Aren't the strongest winds not expected from 9am Monday to 3pm? ... At 0.00 to 9 am it's still to the NNW by a bit. I must be looking at old charts no?

kn

I am not a weather bod or anything but I have been following the thread.

Just FYI it has gotten very windy down here in Kerry in the last couple of hours but it is also very warm and humid - perfect hurricane conditions I think?

cherryghost

kn wrote: »

I am not a weather bod or anything but I have been following the thread.

Just FYI it has gotten very windy down here in Kerry in the last couple of hours but it is also very warm and humid - perfect hurricane conditions I think?

The current conditions have nothing to do with Sunday nights/Monday's forecast. Today's weather is from a seperate low pressure system which will be consumed by Katia and giving her a bit of kick.

The severe wind literally looks like a hammer of wind smashing into the country. South-east still looks like they're just going to be spared with some strong gales

Ayla

I know it's early days yet, but i'm in south donegal and we've barely had anything yet. it's been strangely warm but otherwise mainly sunny. we've had one passing rainstorm that lasted a couple of minutes but lovely day otherwise. i get pretty excited by storms though, so it'd be fun to have something here (assuming no real damage/injury occurs)

Big Daddy Cool

very windy here today, anybody any idea how strong the wind will get in north meath during katia

Mayo Exile

Should be undergoing extra-tropical transition at the moment. Not often you see a hurricane symbol this far northeast on the NHC overview.

naughto

iam living in castlebar and its very windy at the moment with some very heavy showers

darkman2

Iancar29 wrote: »

Aren't the strongest winds not expected from 9am Monday to 3pm? ... At 0.00 to 9 am it's still to the NNW by a bit. I must be looking at old charts no?

Hi, i'm using the UKMO model. Admittedly atm it's the more benign in terms of the storm. Other models have slight variations. None are wrong, they just have slightly varying outcomes. Timing is the most tricky in these situations. All i'm thinking is the very worst will have past by 9am - not that there is no problems after 9am with very strong winds. Could be completely wrong though.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

What would be the best time to head out and take pics of full tide/high waves?

just be careful if you do go outside that your toupee isn't blown away:p

anoble66

very gusty winds in Clare at the moment, already a couple of trees down in the woods this morning. I think that is going to be the main problem for people, trees coming down on country roads etc.

amacachi

Who should one call about dodgy looking trees and that? The ESB were down before a storm a few months ago trimming some trees but the other day a mature tree had branches about 10 foot away from the powerlines, worried about it for Sunday/Monday.

Iancar29

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi, i'm using the UKMO model. Admittedly atm it's the more benign in terms of the storm. Other models have slight variations. None are wrong, they just have slightly varying outcomes. Timing is the most tricky in these situations. All i'm thinking is the very worst will have past by 9am - not that there is no problems after 9am with very strong winds. Could be completely wrong though.

K cool , just that mise and Winger_PL are going over to achill again , hoping to get there about half 10.. * fingers crossed *

200motels

darkman2 wrote: »

My opinion is that people vulnerable to the coasts in the west need to take action to deal with a possible surge at high tide (sand bags etc). Another risk increasingly likely is minor structural damage to property which could occur anywhere but the worst will be in the West and North West. The falling trees branches etc could cause traffic disruption in the cities around the country. This will be a reasonably short lived event - the real risk period for very severe winds being 00:00 on Monday to 09:00 on Monday morning and then very strong winds through to 00:00 on Tuesday - a bit longer then that probably but the winds will be significantly weaker by Tuesday morning.

IMO I don't see any cause for alarm going on the latest model runs away from the far Northwest tbh. They are taking the track closer and closer with each run so that trend is something worth watching today for those further Southeast who might want a piece of this action.

We don't want it down here, the further north it goes the better.

John mac

gust of 51 in BELMULLET windy here all day ..

getting ourselves acclimatised to the wind