Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

Sponge Bob

seems to be tracking south

maquiladora

12Z ECM at 48 hours is further east and a bit further south than the 12Z GFS.

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

how often is that updated maq?

A few times an hour. Not sure how long the floater will stay active though now that Katia is ex-Katia and the NHC is no longer issuing advisories.

TeddyTedson

Should people be worried?

cherryghost

Further east and south albeit slightly weaker so it seems.

Next 2 models are essential. If we still don't have matching models by tomorrow morning we're in a nowcast scenario

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

A few times an hour. Not sure how long the floater will stay active though now that Katia is ex-Katia and the NHC is no longer issuing advisories.

certinaly seems south of the track anyway

ninebeanrows

delw wrote: »

certinaly seems south of the track anyway

Why you think this?

Pangea

Its either further North and Stronger or Further East and Weaker, just our luck.

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

certinaly seems south of the track anyway

I think its currently pretty much on track myself.

rc28

blinksarah182 wrote: »

God I wonder how Ireland can deal with a hurricane? It just seems like a foreign Idea to me!

Did you even read the thread before posting?

There is no hurricane, it is the remnants of what used to be a hurricane and, in any case, it will go far enough north of us not to cause any concern away from the coasts Donegal, Sligo and Mayo.

I am so tired of the population being dumbed-down by the tabloids who hype these things up and often just down right lie about them (see the cover of the english Sun today and the irish Daily Star article). :rolleyes:

delw

Weathercheck wrote: »

Why you think this?

maquiladora wrote: »

I think its currently pretty much on track myself.

ok sorry hit "refresh" & does seem to be on track

cherryghost

2 models show further north and eastwards, 2 models show further south and eastwards, one of the south-favoured models is a bit weather than the other models.

My calculations see it about 200-250 miles directly north Galway city on +48hrs, based on its current speed and its L/L progress over a period of 6 hours. Very rough calculations but nyeh I was intrigued to see what I'd get :P

maquiladora

Looks like the 12Z HWRF was the only 12Z model that had the correct pressure for ex-Katia at the start of its run.



It deepens it as far as 943mb at 33 hours.

dsmythy

I must say the current depression affecting us is no puppy dog. I'd get excited about the idea of a series deep depressions following each other near Ireland if it wasn't for the high building currently in the models for after ex-Katia. Pity because Maria might have wanted to play next week.

Discodog

I think that a lot of people will think that Katia has arrived. As it gets dark the wind sounds far worse. I have just walked the dogs by the sea & peak gust on my handheld was 40mph 64kph but it sounds much worse.

uncle_sam_ie

dsmythy wrote: »

I must say the current depression affecting us is no puppy dog. I'd get excited about the idea of a series deep depressions following each other near Ireland if it wasn't for the high building currently in the models for after ex-Katia. Pity because Maria might have wanted to play next week.

So we don't need to worry about Maria then next week?

fryup

Discodog wrote: »

I think that a lot of people will think that Katia has arrived. As it gets dark the wind sounds far worse. I have just walked the dogs by the sea & peak gust on my handheld was 40mph 64kph but it sounds much worse.

just on that note...are winds stronger at night time??

Pangea

fryup wrote: »

just on that note...are winds stronger at night time??

Not sure but when your tucked in under your blankee and hear the wind roar outside it is more dramatic

M.T. Cranium

ECM certainly keeps the alert very much alive, and the track of the storm past three hours is somewhat slow to gain latitude, looks to be near 46N 40W at 1930z. Neither clue is sufficient to throw the downgrade concept into the bin by any means, so I'm going to hold steady on current alert to avoid potential flip-flop in the morning.

What's always concerned me about Katia is that we have almost no analogues for a rapidly moving ex-hurricane on this track with such tropical parameters being dragged across 18-22 C waters. Technical for some, but what I mean is that 576 dm thickness (almost never encountered in Ireland or UK) typical of full mT air mass conditions in North America, is still attached to the storm centre despite supposed transition already complete, so at the moment I would describe the storm as hybrid and not fully extratropical.

With the immediate track over somewhat warmer water than past 6-12 hours and with such fast forward speed, Katia will be making its final transition overnight and Sunday morning around 20W, so if it doesn't lift off the runway as fast as expected, Ireland could in fact get nailed by the sort of explosive decompression of all that tropical energy. One analogue that has me concerned is the one and only Pacific hurricane that ever reached this region, Freda in 1962 (October 12th), the infamous "Columbus Day storm" as it was known in Washington state ... this storm came from the Hawaiian central Pacific theatre of tropical cyclones, maintained a 958 mb centre, and crossed Vancouver Island but its strongest winds were near the U.S.-Canada border including northwest Washington state. Thousands of trees were blown over in both the Olympic peninsula and around Vancouver (notably in Stanley Park) and as you may know, trees around here are not that easy to blow down. Wind gusts reached almost 200 km/hr.

There are no other west coast analogues, because we only get weak remnants of Mexican theatre tropical storms, and the central theatre is not very productive (2-3 a year on average, many never leave the subtropics). We get plenty of typhoon remnants from the western Pacific here, but these have always undergone transition far out to our west.

So with that in mind, I don't wish to relax my guard on this storm until it actually contracts the wind field and pulls it past some safe point like 55N
12W as some of the models want us to believe. Call me a skeptic on that right now and we'll see where Katia crosses 50N ... anywhere east of 30W and we are in a "game on" situation.

maquiladora

It will be interesting to see if the 18Z GFS corrects the pressure at the start of the run or if that will happen on the 0Z instead.

kilkenny31

hey,, can some of you guys explain to a dumb ass (me) how strong is this storm going to be..I cant trust what the papers say because they normally blow things up.

I notice tonight that winds are kinda strong but probably normal for this time of year. The storm is expected to hit tomorrow night into Monday.

How do you guys predict this will turn out?

Like will it be a one in 2 year 5 year 10 year and so on or will it just be an average Autumn storm?
I'm guessing its not going to be very bad because the tabloids are blowing it up to be massive and RTE doesn't have it near its main stories.

Hooter23

Its on channel 4 million pound drop live tv show one of the questions "what caused major disruption on east coast on usa and is due to strike uk today" -answer was katia lol:pac:
But I thought it never made landfall in the usa also its due to strike monday in uk wtf :pac::pac:

Pangea

So Evelyn said tonights weather is from Ex hurricane Lee.

Dan man

Pangea wrote: »

So Evelyn said tonights weather is from Ex hurricane Lee.

No, Lee is an ex-tropical storm, not an ex-hurricane.

thetonynator

Pangea wrote: »

So Evelyn said tonights weather is from Ex hurricane Lee.

I thought that had just crossed to the east coast of the states?!

maquiladora

kilkenny31 wrote: »

hey,, can some of you guys explain to a dumb ass (me) how strong is this storm going to be..I cant trust what the papers say because they normally blow things up.

I notice tonight that winds are kinda strong but probably normal for this time of year. The storm is expected to hit tomorrow night into Monday.

How do you guys predict this will turn out?

Like will it be a one in 2 year 5 year 10 year and so on or will it just be an average Autumn storm?
I'm guessing its not going to be very bad because the tabloids are blowing it up to be massive and RTE doesn't have it near its main stories.

Forget the papers and just read the forecasts and warnings on met.ie

Beyond that, if you want a bit more, read MT Craniums posts in this thread and in his forecast thread.

dsmythy

thetonynator wrote: »

I thought that had just crossed to the east coast of the states?!

I could have sworn that too myself

dsmythy

uncle_sam_ie wrote: »

So we don't need to worry about Maria then next week?

Highly unlikely to come anywhere near.

M.T. Cranium

Dunno about that, Lee was mainly falling apart over eastern U.S. as Katia went by on Thursday, some of the remnant energy may have fed around in the jet stream to energize this current low, but it really has little if anything to do with Lee.

But Sunday night is all Katia, no doubt about that.

Previous posters were right, Katia had almost no effect on the U.S. except for some big swells on east coast beaches, the TV folk were no doubt thinking of Irene.

To those asking, how bad? Bear with us, the general consensus is that it won't be too bad a storm except possibly in a few northwest coastal locations, but opinions could change in a hurry if the next round of guidance changes the storm track closer to Ireland.

It won't quite be a case of waiting to find out, but I don't expect a really definitive forecast on this until mid-day Sunday.

Pangea

I remember last year we were all prepared for a bad storm by the media but it turned out to be quite a damp squid, the following weekend then we got a much worse storm and the media were quite muted by that stage.