Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

Winger_PL

Pangea wrote: »

it turned out to be quite a damp squid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4yffKvkt_s

:pac:

kilkenny31

maquiladora wrote: »

Forget the papers and just read the forecasts and warnings on met.ie

Beyond that, if you want a bit more, read MT Craniums posts in this thread and in his forecast thread.

Cheers maquiladora thats what ive been doing the last while but i was just wondering can someone give some perspective....How is it likely to compare to previous storms?

inabina

dsmythy wrote: »

I could have sworn that too myself

J - K- L -M

...would suggest Lee is behind Katia....can these Girls pass each other out..?;)

maquiladora

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Cheers maquiladora thats what ive been doing the last while but i was just wondering can someone give some perspective....How is it likely to compare to previous storms?

Well if you are in an inland location in the south of the country like Kilkenny you aren't going to get very strong winds from this unless there is a really dramatic shift in forecast.

argosy2006

Its windy!

Pangea

Winger_PL wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4yffKvkt_s

:pac:

hahaha dam you that is exactly me, I thought it was squid and I have no idea what a squib is . :pac:

TheHumanOnion

morticia2

Any idea if this one is likely to result in cancelled flights? Have a relative supposedly flying in Mon night (Dublin). Not sure what the wind speeds have to be to knock the jets off schedule?

maquiladora

Last Katia statement from Canada:

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.02 PM ADT
SATURDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST MESSAGE FOR THIS STORM.

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , POST-TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.8 N AND LONGITUDE 41.5 W , ABOUT 495 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 920 KM ( 570 miles) EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST JOHNS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) ( 80mph) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
958 MB. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 KNOTS ( 106 KM/H ) ( 65mph).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 10 3.00 PM 44.8N 41.5W 958 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10 9.00 PM 48.1N 34.8W 960 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11 3.00 AM 51.1N 28.1W 961 65 120 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
THE SYSTEM HAD COMPLETED TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL, WITH A CLASSIC
CLOUD PATTERN, AND IS DEVELOPING A GOOD BAROCLINIC SIGNATURE. IT IS
RACING EAST AND AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA WITHIN A BAND OF VERY
STRONG WESTERLIES. BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS A SHARP AND INTENSE
NORTHWESTERLY JET WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WINDS APPROACHING
HURRICANE FORCE, AND GIVING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS.AT 11 UTC BUOY 44140 INDICATED A PRESSURE
MEASURMENT OF 957 MB AS KATIA PASSED NORTH OF IT. THIS COMBINED
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE CAUSED US TO REDUCED THE MINIMAL
CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 955 MB.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE VIGH MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A STRAIGHT
LINE COURSE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO NORTH OF OR NEAR THE UNITED
KINGDOM WITHING 2-3 DAYS. KATIA WILL BE WELL EAST OF CANADIAN WATERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ITS TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL
STATUS, DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA WILL NOT LOSE MUCH STRENGTH
AS IT HEADS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GEM-REGIONAL MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW CENTRAL PRESSURES IN THE 960 MB RANGE AND A
LARGE AND VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ALONG WITH IT AFTER IT LEAVES
CANADIAN WATERS.

Aiel

I wonder will it be like this?:p

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rii8LTPCbE

kilkenny31

Pangea wrote: »

hahaha dam you that is exactly me, I thought it was squid and I have no idea what a squib is . :pac:

A squib is a miniature explosive device used in a wide range of industries, from special effects to military applications. It resembles a tiny stick of dynamite, both in appearance and construction, although with considerably less explosive power!

What i don't know about squibs aint worth knowing!!!

zenno

error image won't load.

maquiladora

According to that Canadian statement, ex-Katia is moving at 65 mph. :eek:

I do believe that is just 4 mph slower than the fastest moving tropical cyclone ever recorded. Now this storm is no longer a tropical cyclone, but still, she is movin fast.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

According to that Canadian statement, ex-Katia is moving at 65 mph. :eek:

I do believe that is just 4 mph slower than the fastest moving tropical cyclone ever recorded. Now this storm is no longer a tropical cyclone, but still, she is movin fast.

Ye that is crazily fast. Catching up with the transatlantic flights!

ninebeanrows

18z GFS initates Katia at 964mb.

maquiladora

18Z has started. It has dropped the pressure down to 964 at 0 hours but thats still too high.

maquiladora

Slighty further south at 6 hours. Let's see where this goes.

ninebeanrows

Funny even with the lower initial it fills it more than the 12z just a few hours in!

megatron989

Could be like one of those movies that looks great in the trailer but sucks when u go see it. Fingers crossed its not the case.

ninebeanrows

Umm i do not know how much grasp the models have on this thing. The early stages are fishy, is the storm going to fill to 970mb (before re-intensifying)?

I will watch the run, but watch the sat imagery with greater interest.

- also note the GFS was particularly more northerly than other models at 12z.

maquiladora

Further south at 24 hours but 10mb weaker than on the 12Z. Intensity on this run is questionable since it's been wrong again from the very start.

At 30 hours its deepening again.

ninebeanrows

Re-intensification taking place slightly later, slightly further SE

Pangea

What exactly does the mb mean? Is it pressure? and is it the lower the number the stronger the winds?

Chicken Run

zenno wrote: »

to quote the cat from Red Dwarf "Swirly thing alert !!" :eek:

maquiladora

Slighty southeast of the 12Z, but weaker.

Slightly closer track gets cancelled out by the system being weaker on this run.

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

What exactly does the mb mean? Is it pressure? and is it the lower the number the stronger the winds?

Its the pressure yes, usually the lower the pressure = the more intense the storm.

thecretinhop

On note about birds etc same as in Galway here hundreds of crows hundreds of seagulls very weird here 5 years never seen it before crows normally head out am and come back pm they went nowhere today just hung about this could be a moderate storm or much worse next while will be crucial

greysides

Birds live a little closer to nature than we do. It seems logical enough to me that they may have instincts about what's coming.

thecretinhop

greysides wrote: »

Birds live a little closer to nature than we do. It seems logical enough to me that they may have instincts about what's coming.

Yep bang on cattle also very wound up wud have pics but had to go connaught match lol

ninebeanrows

NAE 18z well to the northwest

@952mb

Think NAE first to handle the actual pressure.