Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

Maquiladora can u give a quick synopsis of how things look now please ? Is it still likely to hit...how hard...where ?

No big changes either way that I can see but MT is the man for this so let's wait and see what he says. :pac:

The Met Eireann warning is a good synopsis I think :

Later Sunday night and continuing through Monday, southwest winds will increase to mean speeds of 50 to 80km/h, with gusts ranging 90 to 130 km/h. The most sustained and severe winds are expected across Connaught and Ulster.
Exceptionaliy high seas along the western seaboard, in conjunction with high spring tides, may cause coastal flooding in prone locations during Monday also.

km79

Just similar to the one last year so

fryup

its getting fairly gusty right now in east-clare

vonbarracuda

Anyone got a link to weather cams along the west which would show the waves?

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

Just similar to the one last year so

If the models are right, it won't be as intense for Ireland as the storm last year. There could still be some surprises but we'll have to wait and see.

Su Campu

89 GHz AMSU imagery suggests that this system is taking the form of a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone, with the cold front detached and perpendicular to the warm front.

M.T., what do you think the consequences of this are for track and intensity? The UKMO haven't shown this in their FAX charts, going more with the traditional norwegian model. The cold front seems to be showing increased intensity in the last few hours.



EDIT: Actually the UKMO analysis does depict this structure, with the cold frontogenesis showing up, but it switches to a norwegian structure as it reaches Ireland.

maquiladora

Latest warning from the UKMO

Issued at - 11 Sep 2011, 11:24
Valid from - 12 Sep 2011, 03:00
Valid to - 12 Sep 2011, 23:59

The remains of Hurricane Katia will move eastwards across northern Scotland during Monday, bringing a spell of very windy weather to the UK and also heavy rain to western Scotland. The strongest winds are expected to affect parts of Northern Ireland during the morning, before moving east across central and southern Scotland and into northeast England by evening. However, areas further south will not be immune, with the potential for strong gusts, particularly to the east of high ground.

The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures.

Sponge Bob

UKMO severe weather warning monday

cherryghost

06Z a bit closer to Ireland than yesterday's models.

maquiladora

06Z HIRLAM at 24 hours has the centre further east than the GFS.

tfitzgerald

Sorry about this but could someone tell me if this will affect the Limerick area much thanks

maquiladora

Updated FAX for tomorrow morning.

fizzycyst

tfitzgerald wrote: »

Sorry about this but could someone tell me if this will affect the Limerick area much thanks

If you look at Mt's forecast this morning (daily forecast thread at top of forum), he gives good detail on which area's will be affected. I think it's more North and North West, but everywhere is a possibility for strong gusts.

nacho libre

Judging by the Countrytrack's forecast on the beeb, the duration of the winds may be more notable than the actual strength of the gusts compared to previous storms. In saying that with the really wet ground and trees in season, gusts of between 70- 80 mph could do a fair amount of damage in Northern Ireland and Scotland. So while probably not a storm to rival December 1998 further south, it could do just as much damage in some parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Iancar29

MOrning folks ! ( afternoon )

Still dunno now if mise and Winger_PL will be going to chase this or not.
Its a lot to go early in the morning all the way over .
Especially when im on nights ill have to go straight after work without any sleeps..:rolleyes:


ANyways , i made this this morning, winds wer already pretty much starting up! ha ....


RIP SOULS OF 9.11

Kur4mA

It's FIERCE windy here in Dublin 15!

maquiladora

High Seas Bulletin :

HIGH SEAS BULLETIN FOR METAREA 1
ISSUED AT 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2011
BY THE MET OFFICE, EXETER, UNITED KINGDOM
FOR THE PERIOD 0800 UTC ON SUNDAY 11 SEPTEMBER UNTIL 0800
UTC ON MONDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2011

STORM WARNING
AT 110000UTC, LOW 47 NORTH 38 WEST 958 EXPECTED 55 NORTH
18 WEST 959 BY 120000UTC. WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE 10
IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 50 AND 300 MILES FROM
THE CENTRE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 50 AND 100 MILES FROM THE CENTRE
UNTIL 111800UTC. WINDS MAY ALSO REACH VIOLENT STORM FORCE
11 IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MILES
FROM THE CENTRE AFTER 120300UTC

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

Judging by the Countrytrack's forecast on the beeb, the duration of the winds may be more notable than the actual strength of the gusts compared to previous storms. In saying that with the really wet ground and trees in season, gusts of between 70- 80 mph could do a fair amount of damage in Northern Ireland and Scotland. So while probably not a storm to rival December 1998 further south, it could do just as much damage in some parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.

I think you might be getting confused with 1997 as the 97 one was stronger in the South West, the 98 storm was strongest in North West.
http://met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/dec98.pdf
Somehow I doubt it will be as bad as Hurricane Stephen (as we like to call it).
Gusts reached hurricane force with 96 knots being recorded in Malin.

naughto

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

ninebeanrows

Interestingly the last few runs have swung this storm further south, albeit less intense.

Lets see if she can surprise us in the coming hours and rapidly intensify.

Here is the NAE 6z for T30hrs - A very windy day across the country

Widespread gusts to 50knots (towards 60mph) and upto 70 knots in the northwest.

Su Campu

The 12Z buoy reports near the centre show it currently around 970 hPa, as the models were predicting.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=8&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=030W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2011&mes=9&day=11&hora=12&min=0&vpr=Pr

Redsunset

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

The 12Z buoy reports near the centre show it currently around 970 hPa, as the models were predicting.

UKMO High Seas bulletin this morning says 959mb at 12:00UTC.

maquiladora

I haven't been following the BBC TV forecasts, but saw this posted by a Mod on the UKWeatherWorld forum.

There seems to have been a big change in forecast for tomorrow. News 24 at 1125 now warning of winds gusting to 80mph over N.wales and all of N.England later tomorrow.
This is very different from earlier broadcasts. Just waiting to see if Met Office warnings reflect this change

argosy2006

O MARIA
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201114_ensmodel.gif

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO High Seas bulletin this morning says 959mb at 12:00UTC.

Hmmmm, not sure where they're getting that from? Lowest 06Z pressure reported was 963 hPa near the centre, so their 960 analysis at 06Z may be correct, but the models - ECMWF, HiRLAM, GFS, UKMO all show around 965 - 970 hPa for 1200 UTC today. Maybe they see something the models don't.....

Mayo Exile

Image at 1300 BST. First bands of cloud nearly reaching the southwest.

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

Hmmmm, not sure where they're getting that from? Lowest 06Z pressure reported was 963 hPa near the centre, so their 960 analysis at 06Z may be correct, but the models - ECMWF, HiRLAM, GFS, UKMO all show around 965 - 970 hPa for 1200 UTC today. Maybe they see something the models don't.....

It looks like the UKMO 0Z was off by 10mb this morning compared to the Fax chart so perhaps they are adjusting what the models are showing based on that?

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

Hmmmm, not sure where they're getting that from? Lowest 06Z pressure reported was 963 hPa near the centre,

That may depend on just how close to the deepest part of the low centre that reading was taken. Considering just how tightly packed the 4.0mb isobaric contours are close to the centre, it might have been assumed that pressure may have been slightly lower further away.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

That may depend on just how close to the deepest part of the low centre that reading was taken. Considering just how tightly packed the 4.0mb isobaric contours are close to the centre, it might have been assumed that pressure may have been slightly lower further away.

Yes, but if you look at the isobars in the model output above there is not even a 965 contour shown, so the tightest gradient would appear to be from the high 960s-970 outwards. The same with the other models