Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

Su Campu

Exeter have analysed the low as 966 hPa at 1200Z, 7 hPa higher than the 959 they had forecast in their High Seas Bulletin this morning.

It has a strange signature on satellite, I haven't seen one like this in these parts before. No sign of a cold front yet.

maquiladora

Pressure rapidly falling at buoy 62095.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=62095&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

eire-kp

Quite gusty here at the moment in Sligo on an exposed site at 600ft.

Although no worse than last night.

Su Campu

I have set up a chat thread for the storm as this thread is getting a little hard to keep up with. Please use this thread for all technical discussion, comments and analysis, and the chat thread for all other chat and discussion.

Thanks

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=74338748#post74338748

howlinwolf

any signs of it entering into its second phase, the last image i seen earlier was a very flat looking storm that if any thing looked like it was breaking up but im no expert on sat images

quinnthebin

eire-kp wrote: »

Quite gusty here at the moment in Sligo on an exposed site at 600ft.

Although no worse than last night.

but eerily calm away from coastal area in sligo. . . . . .

gbee

Lovely dark feelers in Cork now, an eererie feeling as fast moving black clouds voluminously fill the sky accompanied by an equally eerie silence ~ wind quite but with a strange push to it.

tzfrantic

calm before the storm

maquiladora

I don't have access to this model but according to Coast on the NW forum, the 12Z hi-res NMM model shows:

"56mph sustained winds and gusts up to 90mph on the cards for Ireland and exposed parts of Scotland down to the far NW of England"

howlinwolf

wow sustained 56mph winds thats pretty impressive, any way of verifing the report

John mac

this is one to keep an eye on tomorrow afternoon .

http://visit.shetland.org/shetland-webcams

kerrywez

It is raining steady here in Kerry, between Killarney and Tralee, and feels quite humid and clammy, the rain is quite heavy, but not what you would call thundery.

Regards Wez

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

wow sustained 56mph winds thats pretty impressive, any way of verifing the report

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70950-ex-katia-uk-bound-forecasts-and-in-depth-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2132051

Su Campu

howlinwolf wrote: »

wow sustained 56mph winds thats pretty impressive, any way of verifing the report

I think he was going on forecasts of 50 knots (56 mph) and gusts of 80 knots (90 mph). An ASCAT pass earlier did detect winds of 50 knots in its southern quadrant, but we'll see if that's changed on the next pass in a few hours.

sunbabe08

Was down in youghal today, high tide wasn't for another 2 hours and it was already high. and the waves were huge

Kippure

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v14yQgxAygs

Forecast issued 50 minutes ago.

cherryghost

Kippure wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v14yQgxAygs

Old forecast now.

New one here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Mentions of 70mph gusts in North WALES

muffler

Dont think we're too worried about Scotland.

Oh and that weather forecast was from 9 AM today. Hardly hot off the press.

the drifter

Heavy rain in limerick now...almost still outside though...a lot calmer than this morning.

* dogs in

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Evelyn with her graph expecting 90mph gusts over NI

Tactical

Why is there no alarm or warning on meteoalarm.eu for either Ireland or Scotland? What qualifies as a warning for that site?

chipsdave

rain arrived galley head within last 45mins ,wind sw ,not very strong at mo

patneve2

Tactical wrote: »

Why is there no alarm or warning on meteoalarm.eu for either Ireland or Scotland? What qualifies as a warning for that site?

They will on their next update, I'm not sure if that's later tonight or tomorrow morning...

mikom

Tactical wrote: »

Why is there no alarm or warning on meteoalarm.eu for either Ireland or Scotland? What qualifies as a warning for that site?

It's there......... http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index2.php?country=IE&day=1&lang=

rob180

tu2j2 wrote: »

This link shows a nice development of what your talking about

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

I think :pac:


The Met Eireann rainfall radar shows some rain sweeping in from the south west at the moment too.

I can verify that , and its quite heavy with a light breeze.

Iancar29

Tactical wrote: »

Why is there no alarm or warning on meteoalarm.eu for either Ireland or Scotland? What qualifies as a warning for that site?

They dont usually put out warnings until the actual day i think..

JanuarySnowstor

I always feel these ex hurricanes give us a different kind of weather to the typical storm. Expect the unexpected

Peanut

Iancar29 wrote: »

They dont usually put out warnings until the actual day i think..

If you click on the "tomorrow" button you can see the warnings, slightly confusing as it appears to be greyed out but is in fact clickable.

M.T. Cranium

Winds have dropped off due to inversion ahead of warm front, gradient is still there but stronger winds are probably up around 1500-3000 ft at the moment ... warm front is edging through southwest now and a wedge of very warm tropical air will move in tonight so temperatures could actually rise instead of falling, reaching 17-19 C except in far north where this air mass won't arrive on the surface. Model forecasts suggest this warm wedge will become unstable around 0300-0600h and much cooler, drier air aloft will push across the southern half of Ireland from 0600 to 0900. This development may trigger some thunderstorm activity late tonight, followed by a clearing trend as winds veer from SSW to WSW.

Comparing current satellite appearance with 12-18h forecasts, would imagine that the storm may come in rather uneventfully overnight on west coast then break as gradient increases and stable layer becomes unstable. So in other words, along northwest coast, expect winds to remain moderate from south most of the night, start to pick up well after midnight from SSW then begin to gust strongly about 0600-0900 peaking around mid-day. Could be quite squally with winds varying from 30 to 80 mph over short periods of time, rather than just a sustained gale or storm force wind.

sunbabe08

it's rather calm here in cork city at the moment.