Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

RobitTV

Video on 60-80MPH Winds -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoFqYOV0OhA

Mayo Exile

Image at 1900 BST. No classic vortex discernable yet. Still dry here in Dundalk. Rain not far away though.

kerrywez

The wind has got up a little now and is gusty and strong in the gusts, though the rain has eased a little at the same time. I would guesstimate that the gusts are 7 if not approaching 8, trees bending quite a lot in the gusts.

Regards Wez

Tactical

mikom wrote: »

It's there......... http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index2.php?country=IE&day=1&lang=

Thanks.

I had checked it earlier but didn't see it.

Not too often you see orange for Ireland.

<oops!> Was looking at toaday and not tomorrow on the site... Doh!

maquiladora

Shannon, Rockall

Cyclonic mainly southwest, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 or storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 in Rockall later. Very rough or high, occasionally very high later. Rain or showers. Moderate or poor


Malin

Mainly southwest 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 or severe gale 9, then increasing storm 10 perhaps violent storm 11, later. Very rough, becoming high. Rain or showers. Moderate or poor

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_printable.html

squonk

Heavy rain here in Galway City. There's a breeze but nothing major so far. So far, last night was windier. I expect that will change

megatron989

I've never been so happy to start work at 6am as I am today. Tomorrow morning should be "interesting" to say the least.

maquiladora

Pressue down to 976 but starting to fall slower at this buoy. Not sure how close it is to the centre.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=62095&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

TheInquisitor

M.T. Cranium

I'm estimating 964 mbs at 53N 21W for the central pressure, but plotting a few available buoys and ship reports shows that the gradient is tighter around 51-52 N than either side if you assume that central pressure, for a stronger gradient near the centre you need to drop the pressure to 960 mbs.

No classic look yet because colder air has not caught up to the centre, it is still overlain by tropical air mass but that should change soon and the extensive warm sector (which is just now pushing into Kerry) should begin to get lifted as it comes in over Ireland tonight. Lift may be rather feeble until about 0300-0600h. Would watch satellite imagery for weak cold front now only discernible as slight change in I.R. temperature signal, probably a band of low scud if you were out there on a ship. This should begin to show stronger signal after midnight curving in ahead of the low towards southwest Ireland. The warm front is very clearly marked and from the buoy at 49N 13W the warm sector air mass temperature/dew point over the ocean is 18/16. Further southwest it is 22/17. Pressures at the M6 buoy next 3-6 hours should reveal the actual central pressure of the low because the centre is going to pass just to the north of that location around 03z.

RobitTV

quiet in the sea's tonight, just a few ship's

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/

thetonynator

Pressure at M6 was already 976.6 over 2 hours ago, no update since.

thetonynator

Is the warm sector the clear bit after the current band of cloud crossing the country?

tzfrantic

were is the storm.In meath now and the wind is quiet

thetonynator

Evelyn's red triangle is back.

Gusts to 140km/hr.

High seas.

Low of 964.

tzfrantic

serious were is the wind as it is quiet in meath in ireland

Harps

Bit of an upgrade on the forecast there, gusts up to 140km/hr around here

Nothing different on the latest models, strongest winds between 9am and 3pm

hellboy99

tzfrantic wrote: »

serious were is the wind as it is quiet in meath in ireland

Same here, winds died down here round 8pm.

tzfrantic

it is meant to be strong any experts here hazared a quest to this or is it the Calm before the Storm

delw

tzfrantic wrote: »

serious were is the wind as it is quiet in meath in ireland

clam before the storm
winds are not expected to pick up until well into the night (i think)

rc28

tzfrantic wrote: »

serious were is the wind as it is quiet in meath in ireland

Winds are not meant to start gusting properly until tomorrow morning. Peak will be around midday to early afternoon. Mods, please move this post and the above to the other forum.

RobitTV

RTE just showed wind speed's, the north has the highest, south has the lowest.

But the winds are still high for all area's, which should make it interesting tomorrow.

Aiel

Could anyone give a timeframe of a few hours as to when this might be at its peak over the West of the Country please?Ive heard from between 3am-12am,do ye guys now know enough to narrow this down even further?Im thinking of getting up earlier then usual to see how Galway Bay is at high tide tomorrow morning around dawn.Would this be around the peak time for strongest winds or a bit later?

thetonynator

Aiel wrote: »

Could anyone give a timeframe of a few hours as to when this might be at its peak over the West of the Country please?Ive heard from between 3am-12am,do ye guys now know enough to narrow this down even further?Im thinking of getting up earlier then usual to see how Galway Bay is at high tide tomorrow morning around dawn.Would this be around the peak time for strongest winds or a bit later?

Around 6a.m to 12p.m. are the expected strongest winds for the west and northwest.

M.T. Cranium

Aiel ... I would not bother to go before daybreak, the high tide will probably be prolonged and the "low tide" at mid-day could be running almost as high because that's when the storm surge will peak (in terms of contributing to the overall tidal level). The best storm waves and photo ops are probably going to come from 0900 to 1500. The lads heading for Achill would probably want to be there by 1100 and catch the best of the action after that.

Anyone on the east coast wondering about strong winds, there may be little if anything tonight, watch this thread for updates because part of your strong wind potential depends on showers or thunderstorms developing, but in general the strongest winds for Dublin are likely to be mid-day Monday when the westerly flow is mixing under daytime heating. Places like Cork and Waterford could see their stronger winds around 0900-1200h when the weak cold front comes through.

Donegal and north Ulster further east, the strongest winds are likely noon to 6 p.m. when the gradient increases there.

sunbabe08

wind picking up here in cork

RobitTV

Wind speed has picked up alot in waterford, gusts and overall wind speed increasing.

barnacle

Where are people going in achill? I'm in dooega at the mo, sea was good yday, today was a bit of a downer, could be location though.

inabina

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Aiel ... I would not bother to go before daybreak, the high tide will probably be prolonged and the "low tide" at mid-day could be running almost as high because that's when the storm surge will peak (in terms of contributing to the overall tidal level). The best storm waves and photo ops are probably going to come from 0900 to 1500. The lads heading for Achill would probably want to be there by 1100 and catch the best of the action after that.

Anyone on the east coast wondering about strong winds, there may be little if anything tonight, watch this thread for updates because part of your strong wind potential depends on showers or thunderstorms developing, but in general the strongest winds for Dublin are likely to be mid-day Monday when the westerly flow is mixing under daytime heating. Places like Cork and Waterford could see their stronger winds around 0900-1200h when the weak cold front comes through.

Donegal and north Ulster further east, the strongest winds are likely noon to 6 p.m. when the gradient increases there.

sorry...just need to say this...MT you are a legend ...thanks for all this detail.

dsmythy

I think the beginnings of a hook is finally showing itself.