Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

4PP

duckysauce wrote: »

Anyone reckon Clermont will do the tigers tomorrow nearly 3/1

Nope, ASM are seriously weakened in the front row & are also missing Rougerie.

4PP

DeDoc wrote: »

@ducky - I don't see it myself. Tigers -3 would be my bet of the weekend. Rougerie out for Clermont and he is a real talisman for them. Big injury problems in the front row too. I think Leicester will eat them at scrum time and probably win by 15 pts or more

beat me to it:p

DeDoc wrote: »

@phil - I find the Ospreys one hard to call (I'd marginally favour Sarries +5), Cardiff I'd like. Biarritz not really.
BTW - lots of forwards missing for Biarritz, and rumours that some of the bench (e.g. August) are carrying injuries too.

Now where did you hear that?

No longer a rumour by the way, (ischio jambiers/hamstring)

DeDoc

4PP wrote: »

Now where did you hear that?

I heard it from a snodser.

Snod ser
noun
1. A large vessel for holding guinness
2. A knowledgeable source of all things French rugby
3. A whiskey deprived man with many Christmas cakes

Origin:
Unknown; possibly rural Dublin

4PP

its_phil wrote: »

Gone for ospreys -3, cardiff -2 and biarritz -12 @ 7/1.

Ospreys and Cardiff need good starts because they are in for a tough night. Very confident over biarritz as there is a near full strength team out

You may be right.
However I see very wet & windy conditions with winds up to 40mph. A weakened front 5 for the home team against an italian outfit under no pressure. BO are also missing Yachvili.
Treviso +13.5 @5/6 for me & unders.
But then again I could be wrong.

Podge_irl

its_phil wrote: »

Gone for ospreys -3, cardiff -2 and biarritz -12 @ 7/1.
Very confident over biarritz as there is a near full strength team out

Biarritz have won two games in the T14, both by 2 points, and one game in the HEC by 5. I wouldn't even think about going anywhere near that. Actually, I've bet on Treviso +12 and I'm pretty happy with it!

4PP

DeDoc wrote: »

I heard it from a snodser.

Snod ser
noun
1. A large vessel for holding guinness
2. A knowledgeable source of all things French rugby
3. A whiskey deprived man with many Christmas cakes

Origin:
Unknown; possibly rural Dublin

interesting

its_phil

Podge_irl wrote: »

Actually, I've bet on Treviso +12 and I'm pretty happy with it!

My teams better than yours!:p

Podge_irl

its_phil wrote: »

My teams better than yours!:p

I actually have Treviso at +14 it turns out, even happier with that. PP still have Treviso at +11 in the live betting despite them being 0-6 up

Edit: Ah, that would be because Treviso got a player red carded.

****

Yardie

Visser doing the business again lads. He was 2/1 anytime tryscorer. must get on this in future.

4PP

its_phil wrote: »

Gone for ospreys -3, cardiff -2 and biarritz -12 @ 7/1.

Ospreys and Cardiff need good starts because they are in for a tough night. Very confident over biarritz as there is a near full strength team out

Wrong about the team but 110% right about the result.

Chapeau Mossieur

thomond2006

Yardie wrote: »

Visser doing the business again lads. He was 2/1 anytime tryscorer. must get on this in future.

He's unbelievable, he seems to score in every game at Murrayfield.

Podge_irl

I am going to find the sent off Treviso player and kick him in nads.

Then run away.

4PP

Podge_irl wrote: »

I am going to find the sent off Treviso player and kick him in nads.

Then run away.

you may find a bit of a queue, his team mates, the staff, his President & the odd punter

Funniest bit of the lot is that BO on french TV are treating this game as a bit of a rennaisance :rolleyes: Overlooking the fact that they struggled desparately to overcome 14 journeymen:P

ProD2 here we come, couldn't happen to a nicer Blanco of lads

Podge_irl

Podge_irl wrote: »

I am going to find the sent off Treviso player and kick him in nads.

Then run away.

and spit backwards over my shoulder as I leg it

its_phil

4PP wrote: »

Overlooking the fact that they struggled desparately to overcome 14 journeymen:P

Thats very harsh on Treviso who are only 5 points from the play-offs and lying deservedly in 6th place

4PP

its_phil wrote: »

Thats very harsh on Treviso who are only 5 points from the play-offs and lying deservedly in 6th place

Very true, they are in the running in the Celtic (& italien cousins) nations "attack-defense" training programme

CatFromHue

not a good night for me anyway

i'd treviso at +14
ospreys at -3
visser to score 2 or more at 9/1

lucky my biggest bets are only 6 euro!

i did have edinburgh to win though so not all bad news.

Judgement Day

Anybody think Clermont will do for Leicester again today? I didn't see the away game but the scoreline was fairly decisive. Clermont are 17/10 - seriously tempting.

4PP

4PP wrote: »

Nope, ASM are seriously weakened in the front row & are also missing Rougerie.

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

Anybody think Clermont will do for Leicester again today? I didn't see the away game but the scoreline was fairly decisive. Clermont are 17/10 - seriously tempting.

backed them during the week, 16-7 at ht, hope they keep it up in the 2nd half

Yardie

Eoin O'Malley anytime try @ 5/2 is worth a pop. I think he'll do Banahan today.

Podge_irl

Ulster doing their best to feck up my -11 h/c bet. I hate rugby sometimes

Brady on for Jackson

Ferris at 12!!

Judgement Day

duckysauce wrote: »

backed them during the week, 16-7 at ht, hope they keep it up in the 2nd half

Kept away from Leicester/Clermont in the end but it was a close run thing at 23-19FT. I went with more than 19.5 points in the 1st half in this game and the same with the Ulster game - happy days! It could have been even better if only Ian Humphreys had scored - I had him at 7/1 for a try - a sure jinx!

thomond2006

Feck Leicester.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Not incredibly difficult to realise that Glasgow are still in the competition and Montepellier have nothing to gain for the game. Not incredibly difficult to then make a positive guestimation that perhaps Montpellier may approach the game with a little bit of caution, and rest some of their most important players.

I wouldn't have priced a 16 point swing by a home/away for many teams in this competition, and certainly not a team that has no longer a foothold in the competition.

If I gave reasoning behind all my bets, I'd be fired, but I think it's pretty disingenuous to call anyone's tips on here "not good bets", especially considering some people's tip records...

I do apologise for not being able to always explain my tips and reasons for betting, but they're tips, just that. Take em or leave em.

I'm actually on the 7/2 for Glasgow to win the game too, as I can't imagine the price ever being "fair" towards them at that price. They're a 6/4 or a 7/4 for this game imo, with the fair HC being 4-6 points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCQ7VLoY7bQ

thank you, thank you. :pac:

DeDoc

A graceful winner. How nice.

Well done on your win.

Judgement Day

Another classic tonight - looked at Leinster by more than 7 at halftime and more than 20 points in the 1st half and instead went for Bath +16 - lucky it was only a small bet. As somebody once said about John Bruton 'if it was raining soup he would be out trying to catch it with a fork'. Still the Guinness was good and hopefully that was Leinster's big game for the season.

DeDoc

DeDoc wrote: »

A graceful winner. How nice.

Well done on your win.

the pac man smiley is a 'sarcastic' smiley in my books. Don't mind me I'm only having a laugh.

Are you the lad off the podcasts?

4PP

DeDoc wrote: »

A graceful winner. How nice.

Well done on your win.

?

Not with you there :rolleyes:
What exactly was the tip? Glasgow +11 @1/3 or 1/4?? No value there .

The only clear tip I saw was for Glasgow to win, something they never came close to. Nevermind BPs last minute miss MHRC were the only team on the pitch playing any sort of rugby albeit naive. But then what can you expect from guys who are usually playing with the reserves.

I understand the "gracefull" bit but Winner?? Maybe he got Leinster @1/10 too

Leicester -3 @ 10/11, thats value:D

4PP

4PP wrote: »

?

Not with you there :rolleyes:
What exactly was the tip? Glasgow +11 @1/3 or 1/4?? No value there .

The only clear tip I saw was for Glasgow to win, something they never came close to. Nevermind BPs last minute miss MHRC were the only team on the pitch playing any sort of rugby albeit naive. But then what can you expect from guys who are usually playing with the reserves.

I understand the "gracefull" bit but Winner?? Maybe he got Leinster @1/10 too

Leicester -3 @ 10/11, thats value:D

Glasgow +11 at 10/11

4PP

Deleted User wrote: »

Glasgow +11 at 10/11

You'll have to tell us where you bet because when the odds were posted in most of the mainstream books it was at worst +6 & at best +8.


EDIT; I must admit i must not have scrolled back enough to see that tip, what page svp

4PP

4PP wrote: »

You'll have to tell us where you bet because when the odds were posted in most of the mainstream books it was at worst +6 & at best +8.

Stan James, +11 at 10/11 from Tuesday to Friday lunchtime.

It's just back a page or two if you need further verification.

4PP

Deleted User wrote: »

Stan James, +11 at 10/11 from Tuesday to Friday lunchtime.

It's just back a page or two if you need further verification.

No verification needed, I'll take your word for it. However I stand by what I said earlier.

In anycase taking a bet on a Tuesday or a Friday without knowing teams or weather is the same as playing the lotto in my book.

Pot Luck.

However that is how I see things & if it works for you good luck to you.

I make my money differently.

without getting into it too much, the weather being bad will only ever effect the - side of the HC, and will be a benefactor for the + side.

And a few logical thoughts can figure out a rough team.

Obviously you're entitled to your own opinion, and as such I'm entitled to mine, that's why I wasn't too happy with the tip being called a bad bet, with or without the result, the bet was a super bet at 10/11, and I'd have been happy taking such a bet any time its on tbh.

4PP

I'm not going to waste your time or mine getting into a silly slagging match.
I see your point, don't agree with you 100% but as you said everyone has thier own opinion. 'Nuff said .

If I may add something it would be this. French rugby is my bread & butter. Thats where I make my money and trying to apply logic to French teams is akin to applying it (logic) to women. It just doesn't work

Good nuit

DeDoc

In fairness, it is a good bet if you KNOW that MHRC are going to field a second team AND don't care that much. I don't think that was anyway sure - we've enough precedence for French sides with little to nominally play for turning it on in their home game. Over the years, French winning margins at home are about 11 points higher than their away margin. For Scots teams its about 14 points. That would have suggested about a 25 point swing here - reduced obviously by the fact that MHRC were fielding essentially the same side today and didn't have much to play for.

That said, I watched the match on a stream on the laptop while I had the Connacht game on the telly, and MHRC seemed to have far the better of it for most of the game. Fair dues to Glasgow for holding on.

I think we're (Emmet and I) both happy with the positions we took pre-game. Emmet has the shekels though

Judgement Day

Munster vs Scarlets

Munster to win @ 1/5

More than 18.5 in 1st half @ 10/11

Keith Earls a try @ 2/1

C'MON MUNSTER!

Podge_irl

What a **** weekend :-(

Juwwi

Lads was in a PP shop half an hour ago and they had a good special both Leinster and Munster to win by 10 points or more 15/8 on stephens day.

the normal handicap is -24 10/11 and -14 10/11that double works out at 11/4
but theres a big difference between winning by 10 or winning by 25 or 15.

l went big on it.

CatFromHue

As Robbie said Leinster are -24. They're also 4/1 for -42, which I think is a strong possibility.

CIARAN_BOYLE

robbie1977 wrote: »

Lads was in a PP shop half an hour ago and they had a good special both Leinster and Munster to win by 10 points or more 15/8 on stephens day.

the normal handicap is -24 10/11 and -14 10/11that double works out at 11/4
but theres a big difference between winning by 10 or winning by 25 or 15.

l went big on it.

Before the teams were announced the handicap was Leinster -11 which is where my money is for st stephens day

thomond2006

Leinster -24 is still a great bet given the teams.

Juwwi

thomond2006 wrote: »

Leinster -24 is still a great bet given the teams.

-45 is 11/2 or as mentioned -42 4/1 could be worth an interest bet.

would you be confident of Munster winning by 10 points ?
lm half thinking of backing +14 to cover myself lm not as confident as l was .




Edit ladbrokes have -41 5/1 or -44 13/2
lm gona have a piece of them in the morning.

thomond2006

Munster's halfbacks actually worry me as much as our young backline.

I think the spread is just about right actually, Thomond Park is always worth at least 10 points to Munster.

If you put a gun to my head, I would go with Connacht +14 but not with much confidence. Even though the performance at Gloucester was an upward graft, they still didn't win.

Judgement Day

Another worthwhile night for me after mixed fortunes recently - 5 bets and 5 wins. PP is paying for a shiny new multi region DVD player tomorrow.

CatFromHue

So you don't have much interest in second halves then Judgement Day!

wixfjord

James Elliot to score a try in 80 mins at 7/5 today for me.
Been very impressed any time I've seen this guy.

wixfjord

wixfjord wrote: »

James Elliot to score a try in 80 mins at 7/5 today for me.
Been very impressed any time I've seen this guy.

Good start to festive period. Good player too.

Judgement Day

CatFromHue wrote: »

So you don't have much interest in second halves then Judgement Day!

Usually steer clear of 2nd half bets and Leinster vs Ulster is no exception with Leinster -11 at halftime (10/11) looking like free money. Why is Ulster putting out such a weak looking team?