Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

use a dutching calculator to figure out how to free-roll it if that's your intention. Note that you can't fully freeroll it unless you add in the draw.

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

so in %s of the total stake available - important as there is a constraint on the Ospreys side

45.78% of stake on the Ospreys bet @ 2/1 with Paddy Power
47.68% of total stake on the Munster @ 15/8 with Ladbrokes
6.54% of total stake on the draw @ 20/1 with Stan James/ bet365

Gracelessly Tom

EmacB wrote: »

Trying to make sense of this ospreys bet. My mates made a good argument.

Just say you bet 25 on ospreys 2/1 and then 25 on munster at 6/4. If ospreys win you get 75 back minus the 25 on the other bet=50 (original cash) if munster win you get 62.50 minus the 25 on the losing osp bet giving of 25 giving you 37.5 (a loss).

So betting the same stake on each doesn't actually work out? Or have we this wrong?

You're mixing yourself up. You are betting 50 in total.

Ospreys win you get back €75 - €50 bet is €25 profit.
Munster win you get back €62.50 - €50 bet is €12.50 profit.

EmacB

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

You're mixing yourself up. You are betting 50 in total.

Ospreys win you get back €75 - €50 bet is €25 profit.
Munster win you get back €62.50 - €50 bet is €12.50 profit.

Thanks yeah that's what i said. He called me up after we had made our bets saying he thought he found a problem and i was thinking ****e knew it was too good to be true .

Gracelessly Tom

EmacB wrote: »

Thanks yeah that's what i said. He called me up after we had made our bets saying he thought he found a problem and i was thinking ****e knew it was too good to be true .

No worries. I was thinking of backing Munster as well (realistically the draw chances are slim) but I just can't see them winning over there with the injuries and players missing.

Cue the draw and/or dramatic Munster win!

wp_rathead

duckysauce wrote: »

PP enhanced special hairsprays 2/1 (might not last that long )

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-enhanced-specials/rugby-enhanced-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=677463&AFF_ID=10063954

and its Shane's last match at the liberty again !!!! has scored in all his last matches for club and country.

But then again they are playing Munster .;)

this is mental bet, got it earlier today, put 10er on it
still be shouting for Munster of course

Looking at Rugby 7s tomorrow I like Kenya +8.5 v Argentina @ 10/11

beertons

Well done to all who took the Ospreys over Munster. Did anyone go with a handicap?

I didn't gamble on this, no fundage. So much for payday!

Podge_irl

PP being slow to pay out on this for anyone else?

thomond2006

Podge_irl wrote: »

PP being slow to pay out on this for anyone else?

yup

duckysauce

thomond2006 wrote: »

yup

lol me too . I had Khan to score they paid out on that already . Never so unhappy to get money , that match was fcking dire.

duckysauce

beertons wrote: »

Well done to all who took the Ospreys over Munster. Did anyone go with a handicap?

I didn't gamble on this, no fundage. So much for payday!

went with the enhanced , and went with the handicap on a treble, will depend on tomorrow.

Judgement Day

PP just paid up thanks duckysauce - I'll remember you in my prayers!

duckysauce

wish it wasn't against munster though , next season will be interesting . Money is money

Juwwi

The Leinster h/cap is a tricky one.

has anyone done anything l was looking at the half time -6 Leinster.

wp_rathead

thanks for the heads up about the 2/1 Special on Ospreys- just aswell PP limited stakes to 25 I think

wprathead wrote: »

Looking at Rugby 7s tomorrow I like Kenya +8.5 v Argentina @ 10/11

Argentina 14-12 Kenya
:cool:
(was at 5/6 not 10/11 though)

irishbucsfan

Well my RDP12/Aviva semi final accumulator came in!

P_1

Nice!

Leinster's last minute sloppyness has cost me about 3 grand.

Sickened isn't the word.

irishbucsfan

pithater1 wrote: »

Nice!

Leinster's last minute sloppyness has cost me about 3 grand.

Sickened isn't the word.

Leinster weren't going to win by 2 tries in a million years. I was delighted to see such a big handicap!

P_1

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Leinster weren't going to win by 2 tries in a million years. I was delighted to see such a big handicap!

Hindsight is hindsight, my fault for being too lazy to write another betting slip

thomond2006

Bristol are -12 at home to Cornish Pirates in the second leg of the Championship semi-final.

Given that Bristol must overhaul a 21 point deficit from the first leg, they have to outscore the spread. Might be worth a look!

Juwwi

thomond2006 wrote: »

Bristol are -12 at home to Cornish Pirates in the second leg of the Championship semi-final.

Given that Bristol must overhaul a 21 point deficit from the first leg, they have to outscore the spread. Might be worth a look!

I know nothing about that league at all but did watch the first leg and Bristol
stayed with them well until late in the second half after leading at half time.

I'd definately agree with ya if I do bet it will be on the Bristol h/cap.

thomond2006

robbie1977 wrote: »

I know nothing about that league at all but did watch the first leg and Bristol
stayed with them well until late in the second half after leading at half time.

I'd definately agree with ya if I do bet it will be on the Bristol h/cap.

Bristol are unbeaten at home this season too.

thomond2006

Bristol 17-15 with 13 minutes to go. They've been awful, so many wasted chances and errors. Pirates have scored 2 tries off turnover ball.

I doubt they'll cover the spread tbh.

thomond2006

Unconverted try for Bristol, 22-15 with 10 minutes to go.

irishbucsfan

Pirates have some cracking players

thomond2006

aah done again in the end, Bristol get a converted try to go 14 ahead but then concede a kickable penalty that Pirates score.

yeah bucs, the Pirates openside is fantastic. Great on the ground and scored a class individual try.

http://cornish-pirates.com/rugby/player-profiles/phil-burgess_back_row/

He's only 24 in the summer, wouldn't surprise me if a Premiership side try to pick him up.

irishbucsfan

Munster have a project spot left...

CatFromHue

thomond2006 wrote: »

Bristol 17-15 with 13 minutes to go. They've been awful, so many wasted chances and errors. Pirates have scored 2 tries off turnover ball.

I doubt they'll cover the spread tbh.

Bizarre weekend in that I won all my bets in the Munster game but lost all of them in the Leinster game! Then took a flight of fancy on the Bristol game due to Thomonds post on Bristol -7 @13/5/

duckysauce

I went for Alternative Winning Margin Bristol by 11-20 @ 3/1 , a good weekend overall.

irishbucsfan

duckysauce wrote: »

I went for Alternative Winning Margin Bristol by 11-20 @ 3/1 , a good weekend overall.

Great shout, I would have jumped on that... Wish I'd thought of it!

Judgement Day

I know that Leinster may have been holding back against Glasgow and there maybe mind games going on with BOD and Rob Kearney's 'injuries' but I still think that Ulster are being written off by a lot of people - at their peril. In my opinion Ulster to win @ 3/1 and by -4 @ 9/2 and -7 @ 13/2 all look tempting. And, I'm not just saying that as a demoralised Munster Fan - I would be happy to see Leinster win and do the double - but I just wonder have they peaked already. I'm not going to go mad with the betting and I hope that I am proved utterly wrong.

sock puppet

Judgement Day wrote: »

I know that Leinster may have been holding back against Glasgow and there maybe mind games going on with BOD and Rob Kearney's 'injuries' but I still think that Ulster are being written off by a lot of people - at their peril. In my opinion Ulster to win @ 3/1 and by -4 @ 9/2 and -7 @ 13/2 all look tempting. And, I'm not just saying that as a demoralised Munster Fan - I would be happy to see Leinster win and do the double - but I just wonder have they peaked already. I'm not going to go mad with the betting and I hope that I am proved utterly wrong.

Just to let you know you can get Ulster at 4.8 on Betfair.

Fishooks12

Double of Leinster -8 and Toulon -3

thomond2006

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Double of Leinster -8 and Toulon -3

that's got a good chance of coming in, never know with finals though.

Judgement Day

Just getting going and have started with Ulster to win @ 3/1.



Father Ted JD is not a racist - I love Leinster too!

duckysauce

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Double of Leinster -8 and Toulon -3

did leinster -8 and Biarritz Olymipique +3

And Rob K to get motm as an interesting side bet

thomond2006

Talking Rugby's Bet of the Week is Biarritz +3 against Toulon.

This is actually available at evens in some places.

Blut2

Just bet on:

Single To Win Leinster @ 1.22 To Lift The Cup
Single To Win Leinster - Leinster @ 1.57 Double Result
Single To Win Leinster @ 2.00 Handicap Betting(-8.0)
Single To Win J Sexton @ 6.00 Man of the Match

I may or may not have slight blue-tinted glasses on but eh...sure they'll give me something extra to cheer for in Twickenham!

Judgement Day

Anybody tempted by the 200/1 bet that the match will be one by Leinster or Ulster after a Place Kicking competition?

wp_rathead

Been looking for ages for something to bet on in the final, and I found what I'm going for:

Ruan Pienaar to score over 8.5 @ 8/11

Scored 17 vs Edinburgh
Scored 14 vs Munster

B James scored 15 Vs Leinster
Mind you Leinster only conceded 3 to Cardiff...

Owens is a bit of a whistle friendly ref which should help

*crosses fingers*

Judgement Day

You would have to fancy Johnny Sexton to reach more than 11.5 @ 8/11 too.

Fishooks12

Judgement Day wrote: »

You would have to fancy Johnny Sexton to reach more than 11.5 @ 8/11 too.

That's pretty much free money I reckon

Judgement Day

Toulon vs Biarritz tonight - French (?) teams don't travel, not sure about the weather and I don't know who's going to win but surely more than 17.5 points (@ 5/6) in the 1st half is possible? That's my only bet on the game - I think.

Damp: http://www.westlondoncollege.com/student_life/london_webcam.php and according to various weather forecasts but clearing up at Midnight!!

CatFromHue

Judgement Day wrote: »

You would have to fancy Johnny Sexton to reach more than 11.5 @ 8/11 too.

Nah it's going to be 3-0 with Rob Kearney getting a drop goal.

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

Toulon vs Biarritz tonight - French (?) teams don't travel, not sure about the weather and I don't know who's going to win but surely more than 17.5 points (@ 5/6) in the 1st half is possible? That's my only bet on the game - I think.

and s armitage to score a try

Judgement Day

CatFromHue wrote: »

Nah it's going to be 3-0 with Rob Kearney getting a drop goal.

From his own tryline.

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

Toulon vs Biarritz tonight - French (?) teams don't travel, not sure about the weather and I don't know who's going to win but surely more than 17.5 points (@ 5/6) in the 1st half is possible? That's my only bet on the game - I think.

Damp: http://www.westlondoncollege.com/student_life/london_webcam.php and according to various weather forecasts but clearing up at Midnight!!

15 @ 25.18 so far jd

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

Toulon vs Biarritz tonight - French (?) teams don't travel, not sure about the weather and I don't know who's going to win but surely more than 17.5 points (@ 5/6) in the 1st half is possible? That's my only bet on the game - I think.

Damp: http://www.westlondoncollege.com/student_life/london_webcam.php and according to various weather forecasts but clearing up at Midnight!!

18 in the bag

Judgement Day

It's like watching paint dry. Still a few Euros up and who knows if Steffon Armitage and Tillous-Borde get going in the 2nd half....:D Biarritz look the better side so far.

Fizman

Judgement Day wrote: »

You would have to fancy Johnny Sexton to reach more than 11.5 @ 8/11 too.

Who is that bet with?

PhatPiggins

Fizman wrote: »

Who is that bet with?

Paddy Power