Is it madness to buy our first home now??

donalg1

Snakeblood wrote: »

It might drop by less, that's perfectly true.

You don't have any arguments with the rest, you're just spouting nonsense. Try to get a clear point and make it readable. That's a wall of text.

If you read any of my previous posts you would see my arguments. My points are perfectly clear yours however are not, apart from throwing out meaningless stats that have no bearing on the house the OP will be referring to. You tell him not to buy yet you dont warn him that waiting a year may lead to higher mortgage repayments, provided he actually gets the house then.

House prices were rising year on year over the last decade, so you probably would have argued that they were going to increase for the next few years at the same rate, just like everybody else did only to be astounded when they actually began to decline

Snakeblood

donalg1 wrote: »

If you read any of my previous posts you would see my arguments. My points are perfectly clear yours however are not, apart from throwing out meaningless stats that have no bearing on the house the OP will be referring to. You tell him not to buy yet you dont warn him that waiting a year may lead to higher mortgage repayments, provided he actually gets the house then.

House prices were rising year on year over the last decade, so you probably would have argued that they were going to increase for the next few years at the same rate, just like everybody else did only to be astounded when they actually began to decline

It does have a bearing. You don't understand the bearing, but that's your problem.

I wouldn't have, and didn't. You're wrong. Don't assign arguments to people without knowing if it's true or not, it just makes you sound dim.

donalg1

Snakeblood wrote: »

It does have a bearing. You don't understand the bearing, but that's your problem.

I wouldn't have, and didn't. You're wrong. Don't assign arguments to people without knowing if it's true or not, it just makes you sound dim.

Well when you post something you should make sure its what you want to say rather than going back to edit it after someone has replied to your original reply makes you look dim!!

Ok whats the bearing then, please by all means let me know and this time try not use general statistics to justify your silly argument that nobody should buy a house now because prices are falling.

donalg1

Snakeblood wrote: »

The rest of what you wrote is a solid wall of garbage. It doesn't make any sense and seems like you wrote it all at once because you are angry, a series of 'WELL THIS COULD HAPPEN AND THEN THAT' that's A) unlikely and Gibberish.

Hang on now is your whole argument and everything you have said in the thread so far not based on 'WELL THIS COULD HAPPEN'?

Theboinkmaster

donalg1 wrote: »

Well when you post something you should make sure its what you want to say rather than going back to edit it after someone has replied to your original reply makes you look dim!!

Ok whats the bearing then, please by all means let me know and this time try not use general statistics to justify your silly argument that nobody should buy a house now because prices are falling.

I gave you 26 reasons on the previous page which you've conveniently chosen to ignore.

Snakeblood

donalg1 wrote: »

Well when you post something you should make sure its what you want to say rather than going back to edit it after someone has replied to your original reply makes you look dim!!

Ok whats the bearing then, please by all means let me know and this time try not use general statistics to justify your silly argument that nobody should buy a house now because prices are falling.

No, it doesn't. It makes it look like I'm able to rethink things. As a matter of fact, I edited it to say that I had included the possibility of the reduction in price being smaller than 12.5%, which you said I hadn't. So you know. 'And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?'


The bearing is that housing in general is going down in price. The likelihood is that this house in particular will follow the market down, if it wants to sell.

The OP is asking if it's crazy to buy now. Presumably then, he's asking for opinions on what will happen in the future to the market, because there's not much point asking what happened in the past, as that's obvious, although it teaches us lessons.

Did you read the 26 points that boinkmaster put up? do you have anything to refute that?

Snakeblood

donalg1 wrote: »

Hang on now is your whole argument and everything you have said in the thread so far not based on 'WELL THIS COULD HAPPEN'?

No. It's based on what has happened and what is happening now. prices are falling at 12.5%. That's not suddenly going to go static in 12 months, as there are no positive economic conditions in the world that would indicate things will stabilise. I'd love to hear any you can mention. Try to avoid mentioning landlords setting things on fire though.

iguana

donalg1 wrote: »

House prices were rising year on year over the last decade, so you probably would have argued that they were going to increase for the next few years at the same rate, just like everybody else did only to be astounded when they actually began to decline

Everybody else was not arguing that house prices would keep rising, nor where they even remotely astounded when they began to fall. (I don't claim to be one of them but a few people on this thread certainly were.) Plenty of people looked at the full picture and had a very strong grasp of what was about to happen and they still do.

You are making a very childlike mistake and assuming that your experience is everyone's experience. It isn't. Throughout this thread you are making the same mistake over and over again. You have demonstrated a very, very limited understanding of our economic situation and it's knock on effect throughout society. And worst of all you are assuming your limited understanding is all anybody else has to go on. It isn't.

I honestly suggest you actually educate yourself about the subject you are posting about. It's more than a little complicated but once you start to open your eyes the scales fall away. (I know, I've been there.)

donalg1

Snakeblood wrote: »

No, it doesn't. It makes it look like I'm able to rethink things. As a matter of fact, I edited it to say that I had included the possibility of the reduction in price being smaller than 12.5%, which you said I hadn't. So you know. 'And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?'


The bearing is that housing in general is going down in price. The likelihood is that this house in particular will follow the market down, if it wants to sell.

The OP is asking if it's crazy to buy now. Presumably then, he's asking for opinions on what will happen in the future to the market, because there's not much point asking what happened in the past, as that's obvious, although it teaches us lessons.

Did you read the 26 points that boinkmaster put up? do you have anything to refute that?

Yeah i read them and again they are all very speculative and not worth replying to as there is no way to know what will happen next year, they are in no way any different to the argument you all make that house prices are falling by 12.5% so of course the house the op is looking at buying will fall by the same amount. You have since changed your tune on this of course saying that it might not drop by that much could drop by more or could drop by exactly that amount hence proving that you dont know what you are talking about and dont have any idea what is going to happen in the next year or two

donalg1

Snakeblood wrote: »

No. It's based on what has happened and what is happening now. prices are falling at 12.5%. That's not suddenly going to go static in 12 months, as there are no positive economic conditions in the world that would indicate things will stabilise. I'd love to hear any you can mention. Try to avoid mentioning landlords setting things on fire though.

When did i mention landlords setting things on fire?

donalg1

iguana wrote: »

Everybody else was not arguing that house prices would keep rising, nor where they even remotely astounded when they began to fall. (I don't claim to be one of them but a few people on this thread certainly were.) Plenty of people looked at the full picture and had a very strong grasp of what was about to happen and they still do.

You are making a very childlike mistake and assuming that your experience is everyone's experience. It isn't. Throughout this thread you are making the same mistake over and over again. You have demonstrated a very, very limited understanding of our economic situation and it's knock on effect throughout society. And worst of all you are assuming your limited understanding is all anybody else has to go on. It isn't.

I honestly suggest you actually educate yourself about the subject you are posting about. It's more than a little complicated but once you start to open your eyes the scales fall away. (I know, I've been there.)

And what mistake is that then?

I believe i understand our economic situation just fine, surely we need people to take out mortgages now more than ever in order to stimulate the economy? Obviously the OP is in a pretty secure position at the moment as if he wasnt the banks wouldnt go near him and would never consider giving him a mortgage.

desertcircus

donalg1 wrote: »

Did you not read that post you quoted, ffs how can you say this house is going to drop by 12.5% in the next twelve months???????????????

Houses is a bit of a general statement, is it not?

You dont suppose the 12.5% refers to the average house price?

You dont suppose the average house price is being driven down somewhat by new to market houses, that need quick sales?

But yeah i see your point houses are currently dropping by 12.5% per annum so that means every house on the market now (91,000 on daft) will be drop by exactly 12.5% next year!!!!!

Okay, so maybe the house the OP is looking at is in an area where prices will actually drop by 10% instead of 12.5%. It doesn't change the mathematics that much; monthly rent in the area will still be less than the monthly fall in value. I accept completely that there's a 50% chance that the exact fall will be less than 12.5% over the next twelve months if the average fall is 12.5%.

Of course, that requires you to acknowledge that there's a 50% chance that the price will drop by more than 12.5%; that the OP will go from being merely badly screwed to being completely boned. There's a chance that it could drop by 25% or more; so my hypothetical 250k house could be worth less than a hundred and ninety thousand, resulting in a definitive loss to the OP of their 20k deposit, all their mortgage repayments, and forty thousand quid in negative equity. What happens now if the OP has another child?

The decision to buy could cost the OP tens of thousands of euro and prevent them from living in a suitable house for decades. Renting means they *might* have to move when they're not ready to.

I'm going to make this as simple as possible: because we don't know about the specific house the OP is talking about, we have to assume it's fairly ordinary (after all, if it was way out of the norm, they'd mention it). Because of that assumption, and because we can safely predict that house prices will go down (thanks to oversupply, emigration causing falling demand, rising interest rates reducing the amount people can buy a house for, increased unemployment driving down the average salary, reduced salary driving down the amount the banks will approve for a mortgage, and God knows how many other factors), we're left with a fairly simple recommendation.

Don't buy unless you're certain you know how many kids you're going to have, you're certain your job is safe, you're certain your salary is safe, you're certain you can afford multiple interest rate increases, and you genuinely are willing to spend about fifty thousand quid for the sake of an extra two years of owning instead of renting. And if you are willing to spend fifty thousand quid to own a year or two earlier, WHY?

Snakeblood

donalg1 wrote: »

When did i mention landlords setting things on fire?

'dodge lords from the area might even have started a fire in it '

Here. Try to remember what you wrote, it's hard enough to get through it, if you're not going to bother reading it why should anyone else?

Snakeblood

donalg1 wrote: »

And what mistake is that then?

I believe i understand our economic situation just fine, surely we need people to take out mortgages now more than ever in order to stimulate the economy? Obviously the OP is in a pretty secure position at the moment as if he wasnt the banks wouldnt go near him and would never consider giving him a mortgage.

The OPs job isn't to stimulate the economy.

Theboinkmaster

donalg1 wrote: »

Yeah i read them and again they are all very speculative and not worth replying to as there is no way to know what will happen next year, they are in no way any different to the argument you all make that house prices are falling by 12.5% so of course the house the op is looking at buying will fall by the same amount. You have since changed your tune on this of course saying that it might not drop by that much could drop by more or could drop by exactly that amount hence proving that you dont know what you are talking about and dont have any idea what is going to happen in the next year or two

Which ones are speculative exactly?

Theboinkmaster

donalg1 wrote: »

surely we need people to take out mortgages now more than ever in order to stimulate the economy?

In the words of a 12 year old girl O M G!

Not even going to bother, don't mean to be insulting but you appear too retarded to argue with.

donalg1

Snakeblood wrote: »

'dodge lords from the area might even have started a fire in it '

Here. Try to remember what you wrote, it's hard enough to get through it, if you're not going to bother reading it why should anyone else?

Ha Ha good one genius, seriously you think dodge lords means land lords?!!!! HAHAHAHAHA, dodge lords means skangers, scumbags you know the type of lads that go around setting derelict houses on fire.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA thanks for that one Snake fricking hilarious, i dont think you need say anything else now after that one, LMFAO here seriously can hardly type here after that.

Cheers

Zamboni

donalg1 wrote: »

And what mistake is that then?

I believe i understand our economic situation just fine,
surely we need people to take out mortgages now more than ever in order to stimulate the economy?

Basing our economy on selling houses to each other is how we entered this damned abyss.

donalg1

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Which ones are speculative exactly?

EH all of them

Snakeblood

donalg1 wrote: »

Ha Ha good one genius, seriously you think dodge lords means land lords?!!!! HAHAHAHAHA, dodge lords means skangers, scumbags you know the type of lads that go around setting derelict houses on fire.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA thanks for that one Snake fricking hilarious, i dont think you need say anything else now after that one, LMFAO here seriously can hardly type here after that.

Cheers

It's hardly my fault you're incomprehensible.

donalg1

Zamboni wrote: »

Basing our economy on selling houses to each other is how we entered this damned abyss.

Ha it was selling houses to people that couldnt afford the repayments that got us into this mess

donalg1

Snakeblood wrote: »

It's hardly my fault you're incomprehensible.

Seriously shut up im gonna wet myself laughing at you so much, ha dodge lords = land lords ha ha.

And to think you are actually in favour of renting when you think that, rent off a scumbag hahahahaha good one.

Snakeblood

donalg1 wrote: »

Seriously shut up im gonna wet myself laughing at you so much, ha dodge lords = land lords ha ha.

And to think you are actually in favour of renting when you think that, rent off a scumbag hahahahaha good one.

I thought it was your bad english and general stupidity. I think I'll stick by that.

desertcircus

donalg1 wrote: »

Seriously shut up im gonna wet myself laughing at you so much, ha dodge lords = land lords ha ha.

And to think you are actually in favour of renting when you think that, rent off a scumbag hahahahaha good one.

The only hit on Google for the words "dodge lords" describing them as scumbags is a link to you in this thread. You appear to be the only person on earth to have used that particular item of slang on the internet. I suspect it's not the reader's fault for failing to understand you.

D1stant

donalg1 wrote: »

I believe i understand our economic situation just fine, surely we need people to take out mortgages now more than ever in order to stimulate the economy?

OP Please just buy the fuckin house and close this thread

f9710145

So it sounds like everyone who has a home and is not in negative equity should sell up and rent somewhere and wait until the market hits bottom and then buy again - because it makes financial sense? And is the reason that everyone is NOT doing this, simply because everyone is deluded? All the reasons for not buying now would seem to hold for this scenario too, but I presume it's the taboo 'security for family' that's the main reason people aren't doing it, becasue they are comfortably affording a place that they're happy in.

donalg1

desertcircus wrote: »

donalg1 wrote: »

Seriously shut up im gonna wet myself laughing at you so much, ha dodge lords = land lords ha ha.

And to think you are actually in favour of renting when you think that, rent off a scumbag hahahahaha good one.

The only hit on Google for the words "dodge lords" describing them as scumbags is a link to you in this thread. You appear to be the only person on earth to have used that particular item of slang on the internet. I suspect it's not the reader's fault for failing to understand you.

Ever heard of local slang. I suspect it is the readers fault alright. But sure then he is pretty out of touch

professore

Squall19 wrote: »

I dont have kids but they say that unless the women has a pretty good job eg 35k plus a year it doesn't make huge sense financially to return to work if you have 2 young kids or more, especially in cities Dublin.

Dont know if there is much truth in that?

Would like to hear from anyone in that position?

Yes it's 100% true. As a rule of thumb, 2 kids make it uneconomic for one partner to work unless they are on megabucks OR an obliging granny to do it for free. And creches don't do 2 for the price of 1 deals.

Spiritofthekop

Ratzo Rizzo wrote: »

I guess I should have mentioned that in my original post but in these difficult times I don't want to come across as being smug or anything however, all the warnings about a crash were ignored as the stampede for property held its relentless grip on the general Irish public during the boom times.

Personally I blame the government for doing absolutely nothing about the spiralling cost of a 'home'. They should be put on trial for letting down so many people so very badly, they completely mismanaged the economy and now have the nerve to say they 'didn't see it coming' about the present crisis.

Anyway, that's for another discussion. One thing that is clear about home buying in the current climate is the choice available. It really is a buyers market so if you think you're getting a good deal on a home that ticks all the boxes then the vagaries of the market are of secondary importance.

The thing is though its NOT a buyers market (in Dublin) at the moment because nearly imo 95% of properties in Dublin are still VASTLY overpriced...just take one good look on Daft.ie or myhome and its a joke to behold. Although ive been looking closely for the last 2 years & all the same properties have been on the market for that long & they are NOT selling. The people selling are not budging and they want the boom prices or nothing.

Good luck to them, they wont see a penny of my money until they get their heads out of their asses

Squall19

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I gave you 26 reasons on the previous page which you've conveniently chosen to ignore.

I saw that as well

He's probably an estate agent:p

That would be the only reason he could believe his bull****.Blind faith if I ever saw it.

Wages are going down and taxes, energy and everything else are only going up.

Doesn't take a genius to see that its going to be a few very hard years for ous normal people.

I guess Donalg hasn't been affected by the USC:D