RWC 2011 Handicaps

Dailynaps · 08-09-2011 9:45pm #1

Going to set the handicap myself for every match and bet accordingly, not allowed look what the handicaps are with the bookies before I have mine done. Will keep two different staking plans - one to level stakes and the other will be the difference between my handicap and bookies' handicap.

Match 1.
New Zealand -52.5 v Tonga +52.5

So the bet is Tonga +60 @ evens (Generally)
1pt win and 7.5pts win.

Tongans will have huge support here and I'm confident.

Soarer · 09-09-2011 11:44am

There was something I read yesterday where, in the last 12 RWC matches where the handicap has been 30 points or greater, 8 of the 12 results favoured the whipping boys!

Dailynaps · 09-09-2011 4:56pm

Soarer wrote: »

There was something I read yesterday where, in the last 12 RWC matches where the handicap has been 30 points or greater, 8 of the 12 results favoured the whipping boys!

Yep matches are usually tighter than people think and top teams resting players could contribute to that too. Edit: Just realised I'm going for three of the favs tomorrow :cool:

Match 2.
Scotland v Romania +34.5
Bet: Scotland -33 Evens Paddy Power
1pt win or 1.5pt win.

Match 3.
Fiji v Namibia +34.5
Bet: Fiji -29 Evens Ladbrokes
1pt win or 5.5pt win.

Match 4.
France v Japan +49.5
Bet: France -41 Evens Paddy Power
1pt win or 8.5pts win.

Match 5.
England v Argentina +9.5
Bet: Argentina +14 Evens Ladbrokes
1pt win or 4.5pts win.

Will have to look out for the Pacific Island teams this month going on Tonga's performance today, they have a big home advantage here!

Dailynaps · 10-09-2011 7:44pm

match 6
Ireland v Usa + 20.5
Bet: usa + 35 evens 888sport
1pt or 14.5 pts

Dailynaps · 11-09-2011 5:40pm

Running Totals:

Level Stakes - 0 profit
Handicap Staking - 11.5pts profit

Dailynaps · 13-09-2011 2:36pm

Samoa v Namibia +32.5
Bet: Samoa -31 evens Ladbrokes
1pt or 1.5pts

Tonga v Canada +14.5
Bet: Tonga -6 Evens Paddy Power
1pt or 8.5pts

Scotland v Georgia +13.5
Bet: Georgia +18 Evens Will Hills
1pt or 4.5pts

Dailynaps · 14-09-2011 7:55pm

Running Totals:

Level Stakes - 1pt profit
Handicap Staking - 9pts profit

Dailynaps · 14-09-2011 7:57pm

USA v Russia +5.5
Bet: Russia +9 Evens Will Hill
1pt or 3.5pts

Dailynaps · 15-09-2011 12:31pm

Running Totals:

Level Stakes - 2pts profit
Handicap Staking - 12.5pts profit

Dailynaps · 15-09-2011 1:01pm

New Zealand v Japan +65.5pts
Bet: New Zealand -53 Evens Ladbrokes
1pt or 12.5pts

I think we're set for our first big hammering of the tournament, Japan are focusing on later games against Tonga and Canada and have made 10 changes to the side that lost to France. Ten tries??

LightningBolt · 15-09-2011 8:55pm

I'm still not sure about this bet. I can see New Zealand running in nine or ten tries alright seeing as it's a relatively full strength team bar Carter and McCaw against a weakened Japanese side. The influence Carter has on New Zealand's ability to score when attacking is huge in my opinion, not only that his goalkicking can be the difference between beating/losing the line.

The main thing that is makes me think they will beat the handicap is the fact that there is a huge game against the French in a weeks time. There's places up for grabs so you can be sure every single player on the pitch will want to play to the end an run up a score.

I've got the line between 50-65 depending on certain situations. I'll make a last minute call on it I think...

Dailynaps · 16-09-2011 1:38pm

LightningBolt wrote: »

I'm still not sure about this bet. I can see New Zealand running in nine or ten tries alright seeing as it's a relatively full strength team bar Carter and McCaw against a weakened Japanese side. The influence Carter has on New Zealand's ability to score when attacking is huge in my opinion, not only that his goalkicking can be the difference between beating/losing the line.

The main thing that is makes me think they will beat the handicap is the fact that there is a huge game against the French in a weeks time. There's places up for grabs so you can be sure every single player on the pitch will want to play to the end an run up a score.

I've got the line between 50-65 depending on certain situations. I'll make a last minute call on it I think...

I hope you made the call LightningBolt!

Running Totals:

Level Stakes +3pts
Handicap Staking +25pts

Dailynaps · 16-09-2011 2:04pm

Australia v Ireland +7.5
Bet: Ireland +12 Evens Will Hill
1pt or 4.5pts

Argentina v Romania +16.5
Bet: Romania +21 Evens Will Hill
1pt or 4.5pts

South Africa v Fiji +10.5
Bet: Fiji +22 Evens Ladbrokes
1pt or 11.5pts

CriticEyes · 16-09-2011 4:36pm

Lads could be missing something here but PP are offering Ireland +22 V Oz. I think thats a cracker. What ye all think? Am i just being patriotic?

Dailynaps · 16-09-2011 6:16pm

Is that at evens CriticEyes? If so it's a mistake on their part, back it and hope for the best but don't be aggrieved if they void it.

CriticEyes · 16-09-2011 6:48pm

Dailynaps wrote: »

Is that at evens CriticEyes? If so it's a mistake on their part, back it and hope for the best but don't be aggrieved if they void it.

Its 11/10 +22 and i have it in a treble with Romania on the + and Fiji on the +. Lets see what happens anyway. It didn't last long at 22 anyway id say no more than 2/3 mins after i had noticed it anyway.

LightningBolt · 16-09-2011 6:52pm

Dailynaps wrote: »

I hope you made the call LightningBolt!

Running Totals:

Level Stakes +3pts
Handicap Staking +25pts

Would love to say I did but got up late this morning and talked myself out of it! Figured I'd lost on the Oz and Samoa bets by 4-5 pts when I was unsure so I wasn't going to repeat!

With you on the Fiji bet and on the Romanians at 22. Mate has backed big at 25, would have dove in myself on that line. Samoa and Wales I'll keep an eye out for team news. If Pisi and Tuif'ua are included I'll be on them at 9.

Dailynaps · 17-09-2011 1:07pm

Running Totals:

Level Stakes +2pts
Handicap Staking +13.5pts

'Mon Ireland

Dailynaps · 17-09-2011 1:41pm

Wales v Samoa +3.5
Bet: Samoa +8 Evens Ladbrokes
1pt or 4.5pts

France v Canada +27.5
Bet: Canada +31 Evens Will Hill
1pt or 3.5pts

England v Georgia +30.5
Bet: Georgia +37 Evens Paddy Power
1pt or 6.5pts

Dailynaps · 18-09-2011 3:34pm

Running Totals:

Level Stakes +5pts
Handicap Staking +28pts

Dailynaps · 19-09-2011 9:02pm

Italy v Russia +15.5
Bet: Russia +23 Evens Will Hill
1pt or 7.5pts

Looks like Italy have risked it a bit making so many changes.

Dailynaps · 20-09-2011 6:29pm

Tonga v Japan +2.5
Bet: Japan +6 Evens Will Hill
1pt or 3.5pts

Japan won their last clash by just a point and a similar scoreline is possible tomorrow. Most of the Japanese sat out their heavy defeat to NZ but will be back and fresh for this match.

Dailynaps · 22-09-2011 2:18am

Running Totals:

Level Stakes +3pts
Handicap Staking +17pts

Dailynaps · 22-09-2011 2:20am

South Africa v Namibia +69.5
Bet: South Africa -59 Evens Paddy Power
1pt or 10.5pts

Dailynaps · 22-09-2011 12:16pm

Running Totals:

Level Stakes +4pts
Handicap Staking +27.5pts

Dailynaps · 22-09-2011 12:50pm

Australia v USA +59.5
Bet: USA +61 Evens Paddy Power
1pt or 1.5pts

Dailynaps · 24-09-2011 8:21pm

Samoa v Fiji +5.5
Bet: Fiji +10 Evens Will Hill
1pt or 4.5pts

Ireland v Russia +43.5
Bet: Russia +53 Evens Ladbrokes
1pt or 9.5pts

Argentina v Scotland +13.5
Bet: Argentina -2 Evens Paddy Power
1pt or 11.5pts

AstonMartin · 25-09-2011 2:31am

This is a market I have seen people have a lot of success with. I wish I could price up these markets.

any chance you could give a detailed outline for one of your bets so I can get an idea of your handicapping theory?

AstonMartin · 25-09-2011 12:09pm

Also how do you price up a game when Ireland makes 10 changes from their game last week?

Dailynaps · 26-09-2011 12:12am

AstonMartin wrote: »

Also how do you price up a game when Ireland makes 10 changes from their game last week?

With great difficulty. Especially with Russia not at full strength either.

AstonMartin wrote: »

This is a market I have seen people have a lot of success with. I wish I could price up these markets.

any chance you could give a detailed outline for one of your bets so I can get an idea of your handicapping theory?

I wouldn't consider myself an expert at all but the best advice i could give you would be to keep practising. Go through the recent form, team line-ups and past head-to-heads and take a stab at the handicap. Then compare it with the bookies and go back to see where any differences might have come from. At the start you'll probably be miles off their mark but as you get used to it, your line should get closer and closer to theirs but when you have a big difference you'll be confident in your own mark.

Important note would be not to look for an average but instead look for the 50/50 split. Say France are a team who could win by ~40pts 20% of the time or just barely scrape though by ~5pts 80% of the time. The average would be 12 but would 12 be a reasonable handicap if their going to win by around 5 80% of the time?

Also, take into account the likely total points in the match. A team can completely outclass their opponents and only win by 15pts in a ragged game or by 50pts in an open game.

(And now I've lost everyone

)

Dailynaps · 26-09-2011 12:24am

Wales v Namibia +53.5
Bet: Namibia +58 Evens Bet365
1pt or 4.5pts

RWC 2011 Handicaps

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