Aurora Prospects 2012

Pangea

Aurora at 'STORM' LEVEL
http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm

Another Photo
https://twitter.com/#!/deric_hartigan/status/178140002964865024/photo/1/large

Iancar29

Pangea wrote: »

Aurora at 'STORM' LEVEL
http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm

Another Photo
https://twitter.com/#!/deric_hartigan/status/178140002964865024/photo/1/large

Hopefully the clouds will feck off later! haha

Yep i love that photo, but its from the January 22nd display aint it?

Pangea

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hopefully the clouds will feck off later! haha

Yep i love that photo, but its from the January 22nd display aint it?

Not sure about that, wouldn't surprise me as they all get recycled once a new sighting is reported.

Iancar29

Ye its from that display, skies werent at all that clear last night ha.


RTE have taken down the Article off their main page! Woohoo! We actually did something!

Strangegravy

eskimocat wrote: »

Heart breaking looking outside at total grey cover, in daylight, knowing that the Aurora are shining brightly at a level 7, thats a level 7 folks.... over half of Ireland could be looking at it!!!!!!!! Jeese :rolleyes: Sigh

It went to 8 or 9 Kp in September last year, but I still couldn't see anything from the back garden here just out side Limerick.

You really do need a very clear, moonless night from a very dark, elevated vantage point, and a clear view north to make the most of it from Ireland when we do get a 7, 8, or 9 Kp event.

Well worth it though as I did see it from Clare a good few years ago, looked amazing but I got lucky, right place, right conditions, right time!

Iancar29

Latest view shows the AUrora coming closer as expected..




WIll it continue?.... will the clouds clear up a bit?

Davaeo09

Iancar29 wrote: »

Latest view shows the AUrora coming closer as expected..




WIll it continue?.... will the clouds clear up a bit?

Keep us update please Ian! Or if you could tell us how to check it ourselves it would be greatly appreciated!

Iancar29

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Keep us update please Ian! Or if you could tell us how to check it ourselves it would be greatly appreciated!

Read my post on the last page, 3rd last comment


Sorry but off to work now errgh! , hopefully get off early and hope to get out if skies are in any way visible ha!

lolie

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ye its from that display, skies werent at all that clear last night ha.


RTE have taken down the Article off their main page! Woohoo! We actually did something!

No one told Tv3.
They showed what looked like those pics at the end of the 5.30 news. There was one pic that looked genuine but looked like a pic i seen before.

h57xiucj2z946q

Shining through clouds in athlone tonight

Iancar29

Current view looks promising folks!

h57xiucj2z946q

You think cloud cover might clear up later?

ednwireland

just been to the top of the hill, feckin rain

FrDougalMcguire

Iancar29 wrote: »

Current view looks promising folks!

Is that google earth iancar, if it is, where did u get the kml for aurora?

Tomk1

According to
www.helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/USA.html
Should be visable at top of Donegal

John.Icy

ANOTHER CME IS HEADING FOR EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong solar flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection (movie) almost directly toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr) adding to the geomagnetic unrest already underway.

That's this Sunday, coupled with potential for some fantastic weather for Sunday, could be fun. Let's hope this isn't a dirty high folks!

Mountainsandh

Iancar29 wrote: »

GOOGLE EARTH AURORA TOOL!


AND BAM! AURORA TOOL!

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/googleearth.php

Iancar you're a starbar !
Thanks !

Am here down in South East, you guys think it's worth my while heading off to the Vee sometime soon ? Not the best location for a low North horizon, but light pollution is not too bad up there. I don't know if I should bother. We've broken cloud cover here.

snowstreams

John.Icy wrote: »

.... March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr) ...

So if it comes 7 hrs early we could have the whole of late saturday night to look at it. 7hrs late and it would be the middle of the day though.

Iancar29

Game over for tonight id say , drizzle and low cloud pretty much everywhere.
WOuld bother going anywhere now folks.

Best to wait for the mornings update of the next CME arrival.

hellboy99

Latest model @ 1:17 UTC

Fully Established

John.Icy wrote: »

ANOTHER CME IS HEADING FOR EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong solar flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection (movie) almost directly toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr) adding to the geomagnetic unrest already underway.

That's this Sunday, coupled with potential for some fantastic weather for Sunday, could be fun. Let's hope this isn't a dirty high folks!

At what stage is it possible to know what time the expected blast will impact the atmosphere?

Iancar29

"STRONG SOLAR FLARE ALERT:
A strong solar flare reaching M8.4 took place at 17:44 UTC Saturday afternoon."

ITs looking good for the next few days for chances to see the lights folks!


The one on track ill say would hit sometime 2moro afternoon , hopefully causing some storming in the late evening time . Wouldnt expect it to be as strong as the X flare impact though. So the north will be the best place to be.

muckish

Iancar29 wrote: »

"STRONG SOLAR FLARE ALERT:
A strong solar flare reaching M8.4 took place at 17:44 UTC Saturday afternoon."

ITs looking good for the next few days for chances to see the lights folks!


The one on track ill say would hit sometime 2moro afternoon , hopefully causing some storming in the late evening time . Wouldnt expect it to be as strong as the X flare impact though. So the north will be the best place to be.

Ian, I reckon this one will be better than the X class flare. It wasn't directly aimed at one and delivered a weak glancing blow. Whereas this M class flare is aimed directly at us. Again depending on what time is arrives and what comes in behind it, Sunday night viewing should be good.
Went out last night for a while. Full moon created havoc with all the light bouncing around. No chance of seeing anything. Even a 10 second ISO800 F4 exposure came out looking like daylight. Didn't see anything needless to say.

Rikand

shes a bit cloudy out there.

Iancar29

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Mar 11 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1429 (N18W38)
exhibited little change over the period and remained a complex Ekc
spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. New
Regions 1433 (N12E63) and 1434 (S22E58) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range
from low to high levels for the next three days (12 - 14 March).
Further M-class activity is expected from Region 1429 with a chance
for an X-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 420 km/s to 480 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0405Z, reached a maximum of 69
pfu at 07/1525Z, and ended at 10/1650Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0510Z, reached
a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z, was still ongoing at the close of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods possible on day one (12 March) as the 09 March
CME is expected to become geoeffective. On day two (13 March), the
10 March CME, associated with the M8 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective early to mid-day with minor to severe storm levels
expected. By day three (14 March), conditions are expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected
to decrease to below event levels by 13 March.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/60/40
PCAF red

slimboyfat

All we need now is clear skies or floodlights if you are up near Malin!!!

Iancar29

Spike in Solar wind speed detected by ACE. CME impact shortly .

Iancar29

AND BAM!! ... KP 6 !

A G2 Geomagnetic Storm (KP=6) is now in progress .

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 12 1155 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.



... feckin typical ... ha

slimboyfat

But how long will it last for, that is the question.

Gonzo

the aurora view line is now covering almost the whole of this country yet the damn cloud persists. Will there be any sun at all this week? Met Eireann said a few days that from yesterday onwards would bring sunnier conditions but not even a glimse of sun, clear patchs of sky during night in nearly a week now.