Aurora Prospects 2012

Pangea

muckish wrote: »

There's a bit of aurora fever setting now. Too many people have suddenly become Aurora experts and any glow in the sky is suddenly an aurora sighting. Check lastnight DWC facebook page for instance!! Don't regard the KP index as gospel as to when an aurora will be visible. There are other variables involved for it to be sighted over Ireland. Those KP maps are for over head viewing so a KP7 means that a KP5 level aurora would be visible on the horizon at that latitude.
Last night, eventhough the KP index went up to 6, there was no aurora visible from Ireland. The IMF has tilted back to north. .

Interesting , I knew something wasn't right, so how do we know when these other factors are in our favour?
and what is the IMF? I thought they were just helping us with the banks...

Sponge Bob

M = magnetic not monetary I'll hazard.

Iancar29

I agree muckish!!! I have had many confrontations about stuff he puts up . I put up that there was a CHANCE of seeing it yesterday when things did look promising at times . Kp index is the magnitufe of the Disturbance of the magectic field while the IMF is that field and we need it to dive south ( the circle oval heads further south then too. -5 or greater is goood for inland counties and tha with a kp of about 6 last monday when I saw it from here in Dublin the proton speed was also very high ove 500 with a BZ (imf ) of -8 and kp of 6 at least . Another risk to for the north at least if this solar wind keeps up .Will update when I'm home from work

eskimocat

Right lads and lassies.... what do ye reckon on my chances of catching the light show in Iceland? Thursday to Monday ?? Can't see anything worth noting on the solarham website but was wondering what KP value I would need that much closer up there???

Thanks
Eskimocat

Iancar29

eskimocat wrote: »

Right lads and lassies.... what do ye reckon on my chances of catching the light show in Iceland? Thursday to Monday ?? Can't see anything worth noting on the solarham website but was wondering what KP value I would need that much closer up there???

Thanks
Eskimocat

You should see something when the Solar wind picks up again tomorrow.. but considering the moon being near full it'll be hard to see anything in great detail. But still better hopes than none! For there around kp 3,4 would be all thats needed.

Hal1

Keep checking the short term forecast http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/Europe/2012/11/01 .

eskimocat

Iceland report: Well thankfully, due to some quick planning we managed to catch the Aurora Borealis on the night we landed ! they were a bit washed out due to the strong moon light, but I did see them dance.

Unfortunately my camera is not high tech enough to capture them.

The rest of the trip was too cloudy to spot anything, but I believe the sun was quiet anyway..

Had a wonderful time and recommend the trip but be aware that the lights are not a guarantee so check your weather and aurora forecast.

lolie

Might be worth keeping an eye out later on in the week.

From Solarham.net
End of Week Aurora Watch
Thanks to multiple eruptions on the Earth facing side of the Sun, two or perhaps even three Coronal Mass Ejections may be somewhat Earth directed. More imagery is needed, however minor to major geomagnetic storming may be possible later this week.

M3.5 Flare: Sunspot 1618 produced a moderate M3.5 Solar Flare at 15:30 UTC. This was associated with Type II and IV Sweep Frequency Events. More information to follow should a CME be associated.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 21 1531 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

From met.ie
Friday night will be dry and very cold with air temperatures falling to between 0 and -3 degrees, resulting in a widespread sharp or severe frost and risk of some icy patches on untreated surfaces. Some fog developing also around dawn.

Saturday will be cold and bright with sunny spells at first and frost and patchy fog clearing. While many areas will hold dry through the day, it will get windy and overcast through much of Munster and south Leinster with heavy rain developing in these parts by evening.
Windy with heavy rain expected on Saturday night mostly in the south and east with some colder clearer weather in northwest with some frost there and possibly towards morning some frost developing in midlands parts also as the rain clears away to the east.
Fingers crossed so people.

V_Moth

Some pictures of the Aurora from Northern Ireland:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17817085

lolie

From Solarham.net.
Long Duration Eruption + Earth Directed CME
A long duration and potentially significant eruption was observed early Friday morning around Sunspot 1692. The eruption peaked at M1.2 and generated a Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Based on the location of the eruption site and new imagery from Lasco C2, there is a good chance the CME is almost squarely directed towards Earth. This could lead to Geomagnetic Storming within 24-48 hours.

CME Forecast UPDATE: The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model has been updated to include the Coronal Mass Ejection from the long duration M1.2 event around Sunspot 1692 this morning. The fast moving cloud should directly impact Earth by tomorrow evening. The predicted Solar Wind speed past Earth is expected to exceed 800 km/s as per the model. Geomagnetic Storming which could lead to Aurora displays will be possible.

If all goes well this could be our best chance to see Aurora's in a few years.
With a possible 800km solar wind and met.ie forecast for mostly clear and frosty we could be starting paddy's day with a green sky light show.
Fingers crossed.

Hal1

A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) captured the CME just as it was leaving the sun:

Taken from space weather.

lolie

Sunspot 1692 is almost directly facing us so hopefully its not a big let down.


Also the new moon should set before midnight.

Rikand

Well folka. What are the chances tonight ?

homer simpson

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

Well folka. What are the chances tonight ?

According to this not great yet,

Rikand

homer simpson wrote: »

According to this not great yet,

Stupid sun. Why cant it spit out a flare worth a sh!te

homer simpson

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

Stupid sun. Why cant it spit out a flare worth a sh!te

Well according to that image (which should refresh itself every few minutes) the lights may be visible from Donegal but this site says the KP level won't be strong enough.

http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm

in 3 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet
in 19 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet
in 34 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet
in 49 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet

John.Icy

The CME impacted roughly 6 hours ago. Tonight is the night, of course you wouldn't have seen anything last night

KP at 5, max of 6 forecasted. Donegal et all should be best. Really need an X class flare for anything further South.

Best of luck Northerners!

homer simpson

John.Icy wrote: »

The CME impacted roughly 6 hours ago. Tonight is the night, of course you wouldn't have seen anything last night

KP at 5, max of 6 forecasted. Donegal et all should be best. Really need an X class flare for anything further South.

Best of luck Northerners!

I can't wait if only it was dark now!

in 5 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.67 -- at 'STORM' LEVEL! (It's On!!)
in 20 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6 -- at 'STORM' LEVEL! (It's On!!)

an hour ago it was 7.33 Kp :O :O

John.Icy

homer simpson wrote: »

I can't wait if only it was dark now!



an hour ago it was 7.33 Kp :O :O

Yes hopefully activity continues till dark, it would be just our luck though that it begins to abate back to quite levels which it is expected to do tomorrow.


http://www.spacew.com/

The traffic lights on this sight are a very useful reference. If it's flashing yellow for mid-latitudes and the IMF field is south, then it's more than likely Aurora's are visible in the far North of Ireland. At least that's what I've learnt from guru Martin McKenna, probably the most successful Aurora watcher in Ireland, and this website is one of his go to places.

Hal1

Just got an aurora alert there:

Forecast: Auroral activity will be high. Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Tromsø, Norway to as far south as Sundsvall, Sweden and Arkhangelsk, Russia, visible low on the horizon from Edinburgh and Valga, Estonia.

Forecaster Comments: Auroral activity is very high right now due to a solar event on March 15, 2013. Activity should be high for a day or two. Watch the short term forecast at http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast.

source: http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/Europe/2013/03/17

KP index of 5, doesn't mentioned us though. Maybe northern counties like Donegal or Antrim will be more favourable locations for spotting them.

lolie

Just our luck to have the cme hit in the morning.
Solar wind still 600+kph, kp-6 and imf south so still some hope for later, we might catch a break for the day thats in it.

John.Icy wrote: »

Really need an X class flare for anything further South.

X class flares quite often produce small or no cme's either.
Although i was reading the other day about a sunspot in 1989 that produced an X-15 flare and a huge cme that resulted in aurora's seen from far south as Cuba. Cool

Iancar29

Looks like therell be some Brief clearances in the cloud... could be worthwhile going out if ur up north... not so much good here in Dublin to alter my plans for later... GOod luck to anyone though heading out !, I saw them from near Dublin AIrport Back in October with Similar storm levels!

homer simpson

Aye carrumba !!!!!! Look at all that green :eek:



Please go away coulds....

Iancar29

Expect sightings all the way down as far as Kerry if the clouds clear in any way or form. Peak strength i would guess from 10pm-1am as that magnetic oval rotates over us.


Heres my photo from back last October near the Airport .



At the time they were as slight wispy white with the naked eye on the horizon but i knew straight away that was them and they showed up on camera for a nice hour like this

Fully Established

Iancar29 wrote: »

Expect sightings all the way down as far as Kerry if the clouds clear in any way or form. Peak strength i would guess from 10pm-1am as that magnetic oval rotates over us.


Heres my photo from back last October near the Airport .



At the time they were as slight wispy white with the naked eye on the horizon but i knew straight away that was them and they showed up on camera for a nice hour like this

Is the KP value expected to be high this evening ? Also where is a good dark place to look around Dublin Airport ? Thanks

Iancar29

Fully Established wrote: »

Is the KP value expected to be high this evening ? Also where is a good dark place to look around Dublin Airport ? Thanks

KP index is still at 6 and BZ is WAY south at -10 atm ... heres a good site for the info http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

I took that shot up on Kilreesk Lane just off the R122 , sorry dunno how to place the exact google map location link thingy ha.

http://maps.google.com/ , but its just up past the airport. Its the clouds that need to clear now... remember they might not be green with the naked eye , more wispy white... thats why a good exposure is needed... a long enough exposure may even help see them glow through the clouds too

Fully Established

Iancar29 wrote: »

KP index is still at 6 and BZ is WAY south at -10 atm ... heres a good site for the info http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

I took that shot up on Kilreesk Lane just off the R122 , sorry dunno how to place the exact google map location link thingy ha.

http://maps.google.com/ , but its just up past the airport. Its the clouds that need to clear now... remember they might not be green with the naked eye , more wispy white... thats why a good exposure is needed... a long enough exposure may even help see them glow through the clouds too

Super stuff I ll keep fingers crossed for clouds to break up . Thanks once again

Iancar29

KP is at 6.5 now lol

Davaeo09

What are the chances of seeing them as far South as Kilkenny?

fits

I just saw it from my apartment in Eastern Finland. So strong I could see it even with the town's light pollution. Amazing green arc from east to west across the sky. I am delighted