Aurora Prospects 2012

scholes · 27-01-2012 11:37pm

Thanks a million Ian, for those great tips I really appreciate it. Ill do my best to get some gud photos , not sure if they will be half as good as yours though

Thanks again

lolie · 28-01-2012 1:24am

muckish wrote: »

This KP plot is from July 14-16th 2000 after an X-5.6 flare. Could you imagine? 9 hours of KP9!!:D

Knowing our luck it was probably cloudy that night. Pity that X class flare 2day didnt come from 1408.

Iancar29 · 28-01-2012 1:58pm

Some more photos now on my FLickr folks

http://www.flickr.com/photos/41948286@N02/sets/72157629066551505/

flaviu · 03-02-2012 2:25am

any chance of seeing the aurora these days?
according to the irish times it could be seen last week... but since then it's been clouded... where would i be able to see it from close to dublin?

toe_knee · 03-02-2012 2:32am

It was viewable from Donegal last week and from the footage I seen it looked. Pretty impressive. There is a link to a website on here with a forecast of how strong the lights will be but it rarely gets down as far as Dublin. Even if it did you probably wouldn't even know because the light would drowned it out

flaviu wrote: »

any chance of seeing the aurora these days?
according to the irish times it could be seen last week... but since then it's been clouded... where would i be able to see it from close to dublin?

To Alcohol · 03-02-2012 6:22pm

There was a picture of it in the Leinster Leader this week taken from the Curragh in Co Kildare.

Pangea · 03-02-2012 10:04pm

Can see the northern lights here now! Skys is flashing, great stuff! Finally get to see them

The Kp value is only 2 on that map, but its definitely the northern lights I see through the clouds.

Iancar29 · 03-02-2012 10:20pm

Pangea wrote: »

Can see the northern lights here now! Skys is flashing, great stuff! Finally get to see them
The Kp value is only 2 on that map, but its definitely the northern lights I see through the clouds.

hmmmm..... im afraid i cannot believe this, wanna throw a photo at me and stun me?

Just seems close to impossible... nothing at all happening up there.

FrDougalMcguire · 03-02-2012 10:25pm

Godammit if Pangea its right its cloudy as hell here right now after 3 nights on the trot clear, flippin typical:mad:

Pangea · 03-02-2012 10:29pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

hmmmm..... im afraid i cannot believe this, wanna throw a photo at me and stun me?

Just seems close to impossible... nothing at all happening up there.

Dont know what that graph is about, but the sky was flashing here and lights dancing behind the clouds way up in the northern direction, it has to be the northern lights, no town or lights for miles away. Il get the camera out if i see it again but it will be hard to get it on camera. It cloudy here too frDougal.

Iancar29 · 03-02-2012 10:33pm

Pangea wrote: »

Dont know what that graph is about, but the sky was flashing here and lights dancing behind the clouds way up in the northern direction, it has to be the northern lights, no town or lights for miles away. Il get the camera out if i see it again but it will be hard to get it on camera. It cloudy here too frDougal.

THe graph shows the magnetic flux... what u need to look at to see if aurora is actually happening . ANd thats the Kiruna one...

1. they dont "flash"
2. theyd be literally on the horizon, not high up .
3.... PLEASE get a camera and prove me wrong! haha...

4...... HAve the UFO thread awaiting on standby

Pangea · 03-02-2012 10:37pm

Well if its not the northern lights I have no idea what it is then ha.
Its not a matter of proving you wrong, the lights are here in the northern sky whether you believe me or not,showing you a video of flashing sky is not going to prove you are wrong, its just going to prove that there are lights in the northern sky, its what they are is the question!
Have camera on standby but as I said it will be hard to get it on camera at night time.
So its not possible at all that they are the northern lights then? It was a cool display whatever they are, never seen anything like it.
Its not really a flash, more of a dancing wavey light.

muckish · 03-02-2012 11:48pm

Pangea,
I think the Silver Tassie has one of those strobe lights going these days. That probably explains it. There's no aurora on at the moment. Even the webcams in Sweden etc aren't showing anything.
Sorry I'm afraid, you'll have to wait for another night.

Pangea · 03-02-2012 11:50pm

muckish wrote: »

Pangea,
I think the Silver Tassie has one of those strobe lights going these days. That probably explains it. There's no aurora on at the moment. Even the webcams in Sweden etc aren't showing anything.
Sorry I'm afraid, you'll have to wait for another night.

Thanks guys for letting me know its definitely not the northern lights, well it definitely was something anyway, and the silver tassie is over 80km from here so it definitely wasnt that ha! My family members seen it also and have no explanation for it, one of those things you cant explain!

V_Moth · 03-02-2012 11:57pm

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks guys for letting me know its definitely not the northern lights, well it definitely was something anyway, and the silver tassie is over 80km from here so it definitely wasnt that ha! My family members seen it also and have no explanation for it, one of those things you cant explain!

Best guess would be distant thunderstorm.

muckish · 04-02-2012 12:01am

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks guys for letting me know its definitely not the northern lights, well it definitely was something anyway, and the silver tassie is over 80km from here so it definitely wasnt that ha! My family members seen it also and have no explanation for it, one of those things you cant explain!

Sorry Pangea, got my locations mixed up and thought you were in Letterkenny for some reason. My bad! Not the tassie then. Still not the Northern Lights though. No distant thunder storms here either. So I'm none the wiser...

V_Moth · 04-02-2012 12:08am

muckish wrote: »

Sorry Pangea, got my locations mixed up and thought you were in Letterkenny for some reason. My bad! Not the tassie then. Still not the Northern Lights though. No distant thunder storms here either. So I'm none the wiser...

Just to clarify, I didn't mean audible thunderstorm, but rather the reflected light which can travel very long distances. It can be surprisingly bright.

In German it is known as Wetterleuchten (http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blitz#Wetterleuchten), but there doesn't seem to be any corresponding word in English.

Pangea · 04-02-2012 12:11am

muckish wrote: »

Sorry Pangea, got my locations mixed up and thought you were in Letterkenny for some reason. My bad! Not the tassie then. Still not the Northern Lights though. No distant thunder storms here either. So I'm none the wiser...

Thanks, if it is some sort of strobe light im sure il see it again in the future but I doubt it was, the nearest village is over 16kms and I cant imagine any big lights from there and even if there was I cant imagine me seeing lights from there all the way to here.

eskimocat · 04-02-2012 4:00pm

Any chance it was noctilucent clouds..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noctilucent_cloud

no time to read if it was possibly what you saw but perhaps

muckish · 07-02-2012 10:29pm

Keep an eye on the KP index tonight. Currently it's reading 4. KP5 should be visible on the North coast. The IMF is trending south as well. now if only the clouds would clear off!

vonbarracuda · 08-02-2012 9:24am

muckish wrote: »

Keep an eye on the KP index tonight. Currently it's reading 4. KP5 should be visible on the North coast. The IMF is trending south as well. now if only the clouds would clear off!

Not sure If I was seeing things but around 10.10pm last night there was a good bit of green in the sky in the east

muckish · 09-02-2012 11:37pm

vonbarracuda wrote: »

Not sure If I was seeing things but around 10.10pm last night there was a good bit of green in the sky in the east

KP didn't go above 4 in the end, so I doubt it was an aurora. Again you were seeing the green in the East. Aurora appear in the Northern Skies. It stayed cloudy that night in Donegal so couldn't even see the stars or the near full moon.

Hooter23 · 13-02-2012 12:40pm

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2100082/Massive-sunspot-DOUBLED-size-recent-days-send-solar-storms-careering-Earth.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

As usual the daily mail make it sound like its the end of the world

Davaeo09 · 13-02-2012 1:52pm

One of my mates on facebook says he got an email from some site or some thing that says the KP could read 5 or even 6 over the next 1-3 nights?

judging by the link above it sounds plausible

Any experts care to shed some of their wisdom to us less informed?

Iancar29 · 13-02-2012 2:57pm

Davaeo09 wrote: »

One of my mates on facebook says he got an email from some site or some thing that says the KP could read 5 or even 6 over the next 1-3 nights?

judging by the link above it sounds plausible

Any experts care to shed some of their wisdom to us less informed?

Yes your quite right, there is a 40% chance of Mid Latitude activity in the next 36 hours due to the possible arrival of a CME in the next day or so.

SO ye , best to keep an eye on www.spaceweather.com or www.solarham.com

muckish · 14-02-2012 8:17pm

Currently a beautiful Aurora in Abisko. Bring back memories Ian?
http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/

scoobymunster · 19-02-2012 5:22pm

Hi, apologies for a stupid question but this stuff goes way above my head. I've been keeping an eye on the Spaceweather website, today the KP index says 24 hr max level is 5.

Going by the above map, Irelands too far south to get the full view, but we're still within the blue outer zone. What does this mean? say if I went to Malin Head tonight, and it was a clear sky - would I see much/anything of note?

Thanks:)

Iancar29 · 19-02-2012 5:32pm

scoobymunster wrote: »

Hi, apologies for a stupid question but this stuff goes way above my head. I've been keeping an eye on the Spaceweather website, today the KP index says 24 hr max level is 5.
Going by the above map, Irelands too far south to get the full view, but we're still within the blue outer zone. What does this mean? say if I went to Malin Head tonight, and it was a clear sky - would I see much/anything of note?

Thanks:)

Hey There...

firstly the 24hr max is a record... so its got to level 5 in the last 24hrs.
The blue area is just the general magnetic field. The aurora wont show in that area. its usual visible when the yellow/orange is within about 50 miles or so.

Secondly the forecast for tonight is low... 10% chance for minor activity ( what ireland needs ) in the next 24hrs ... so your chances are slim. But yeah.. never give up hope

cheers

Ian

Duiske · 04-03-2012 3:07pm

55% chance M-class flares and a 5% chance of an X-flare during the next 24 hours from Sunspot 1429. Looks impressive.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2012/04mar12/hmi4096_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=hot3ck0a66e2ts54pejf053nt6

Narsil · 05-03-2012 1:59pm

Iancar, your photos on Flickr are amazing:eek:

We're going to Tromso on the 16th March and I was wondering if there is any way of knowing if the prospects for the Aurora are going to be good or if there is a good website to keep an eye on? Staying until the 20th so hoping to get at least one good night!

Aurora Prospects 2012

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