US Sports Thread (NBA, NCAA, MBL, NHL, NFL, etc.)

skeleton_boy

Lions up 3 with 2.30 left. Does -3 become a push if it ends this way?

Eire-Dearg

Yep.

skeleton_boy

Though so much just wanted to be sure. I'll take that all things considered

AdrianII

bills 31 - pats 31 sounds like a cracker

giants and eagles total points was 45 - i had 15 on over 46.5

no more bets for a while

Eire-Dearg

Jets down a TD. I sorta fancied Oakland to win, but of course I didn't bet on it. Long way to go yet though.

AdrianII

bills about to win against the pats (if field goal is good)

AdrianII

Bills beat Pats 34 -31

AdrianII

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Jets down a TD. I sorta fancied Oakland to win, but of course I didn't bet on it. Long way to go yet though.

level now, sanchez with a run in

EDIT
Jets up by 7 now LT

El Horseboxo

Great to see a team smart enough to take some kneels and kick the FG with no time on the clock. That TD that went under review probably got them the win. Brady in a 2 min drill would be difficult to stop.

CriticEyes

Washington Redskins At Dallas Cowboys

Im thinking of taking Dallas -3. What ye all think?

El Horseboxo

What worries me about the Cowboys is they are pretty banged up. Romo will play wearing a protective kevlar vest or something like that. Will add extra weight and i reckon the 'Skins O Line will be looking to get to him. Good chance he doesn't finish the game. Vick came back when he probably shouldn't have yesterday and looked way below par yesterday. Romo played on with the injuries last week and it paid off. That kind of success story 2 weeks in a row seems a little bit too fairytale-ish.

Kinda like the Under 45 and Washington to cover the spread. But i've been horrible the last 2 weeks in the NFL. So my opinion ain't holding much weight lately.

padraig_f

I was all set to go Redskins and then I saw the line today at 3.5, much lower than I was expecting. 3.5 I think is about right and would be a stay-away for me. At 3, I'm tending towards the Cowboys. They are banged up but that's built into the line, it would be around 6.5 if they were healthy. So I think there could be some value in -3 on the Cowboys. It's a must-win game for them, no team who started 1-2 or worse last year made the playoffs, and they'd be letting a division rival go to 3-0 if they lost. While the Redskins are 2-0, they've had 2 fairly soft games, at home against a Giants team with injury problems and a poor Cardinals team. I might still stay on the fence on this, but if the line is -3, think I prefer the Cowboys side.

I do really like the under 45 though. I think the Cowboys will try and protect Romo by running the ball a lot. This will tend to bring the total down and also the Cowboys have struggled running the ball this year (they rushed for only 64 yards against the Jets and 45 yards against the 49ers). Overs on MNF tend to be inflated as well which gives a bit of extra value to the under.

Will definitely bet the under, but probably stay away on the side. I notice bet365 still have it at -3.5, PP have it at -3, but at 10/13 instead of the usual 10/11, so you're paying for that important half-point.

El Horseboxo

While i don't think the Cowboys cover -3.5 i'm not confident enough to take a side in this game. The under will be my most likely bet. Really like it. Romo banged up. Jones not healthy and i don't rate him anyways. Austin out means no deep threat. Bryant while very good may be limited as i think he's being rushed back when not 100%. The Dallas D should play well under Rob Ryan.

CriticEyes

woeful game to watch! so bad. my -3 looks a bit foooooooooooooked! :mad: Wouldn't mind as much if it was a good game.

El Horseboxo

Leaning towards the Under 51.5 in the USF at Pittsburgh game tonight. I put the the game around the 42-47 mark. Pittsburgh will run, run and run tonight with Graham. Their QB isn't as versatile as Daniels for USF so they i reckon they will rely on running the ball a lot. USF run/pass offense is 53%/47% so they'll keep the ball on the ground a fair bit too. Want to look into the technicals and stats a bit more before taking the bet. But it has been raining a lot in Pittsburgh this week and the forecast is for heavy rain and thunderstorms later. 60% chance the weather sites give it. That usually makes for a lot of slips and falls which bodes well for the unders when teams that rush above 50% play.

padraig_f

Had a good weekend last week, going 4-1 and one push. Got a bit lucky in fairness, think I was 0-4 through 3 quarters of the 6pm games. The Lions were down 20 at half-time and I had them laying 3 points, the Saints were down by about 10 in the 4th quarter before coming back to cover the -4. The Panthers got a late TD to win as well. The Jets really blew the game against the Raiders, which is a reason I've picked the Pats today. Season total is 6-4.

6pm
Lions +1.5 @ Cowboys
Bears -6 vs. Panthers

9pm
Chargers -7 vs. Dolphins
Broncos +12 @ Packers
Patriots -5 @ Raiders

padraig_f

Thank you Detroit Lions! 2nd week in a row coming back from 20 points down, unbelievable.

Eire-Dearg

Thank you Detroit!

Megatron.

El Horseboxo

How the Lions won that game is beyond me. The Cowboys were a complete and utter joke in the second half. Second halves killing me today.

AdrianII

padraig_f wrote: »

9pm
Chargers -7 vs. Dolphins
Broncos +12 @ Packers
Patriots -5 @ Raiders

the useless broncos letting us down (i followed you)

AdrianII

PP just had the giants at 4/11 to win (in play) when they were 31-27 up with the ball and 57secs on the clock (no TO left either) ha ha nice one paddy

padraig_f

PP have an early line for next week, Lions -6 vs. Bears. I'm jumping on this right now at this because I think it gets bet up to -7.5. I watched some of the Bears tonight and they were lucky to win. The Panthers had 530 yards to the Bears 310 but somehow managed to lose by giving up a pick-6 and a kick-off return TD to Devin Hester.

Quick analysis of the game from a Bears blog:
http://beardownstats.wordpress.com/2011/10/02/quick-hitter-week-4-vs-carolina-w-34-29/

Dont' see a letdown effect from the Lions, it's a divisional game and a home game on Monday Night Football.

Lions -6 vs. Bears

Peyton Manning

padraig_f wrote: »

PP have an early line for next week, Lions -6 vs. Bears. I'm jumping on this right now at this because I think it gets bet up to -7.5.

Hindsight and all, but a -6 road favourite in a divisional rivalry game on MNF will almost certainly always get backed down to a more favourable spread, and that's before you even look at the two teams involved.

stingerro

As we don't have a NHL tipster here and maybe some of you are interested in making some bets, this guy was doing very well last season and was heavily praised on some US boards - http://guil0000.mysbrforum.com/blog/

stingerro

0:0 at HT in game between UNC and Luisville :eek:. Has to be some kind of record...

Eire-Dearg

I presume there's been quite a few 0-0s at HT over the years, but doesn't stop this being one of the most boring games to ever have bet on.

NC 14-0 up.

El Horseboxo

Probably been a few scoreless games at the half. Remember one not too long ago where the first point was a field goal scored at in the 3rd quarter. Think it was a Rutgers game.

The lowest scoring game i've ever watched was Auburn at Mississippi State. Auburn scored a field goal before the half and then Miss. St. got a safety in the 4th i think.

padraig_f

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Hindsight and all, but a -6 road favourite in a divisional rivalry game on MNF will almost certainly always get backed down to a more favourable spread, and that's before you even look at the two teams involved.

The Lions are the home team, still very surprised at the line move (although the difference between -6 and -5 is very little as they're pretty dead numbers). Interesting to see what it is at kick-off, I still think it climbs back up. Won't hit 7.5 now but maybe 6.5 or 7.

Still don't understand the line. Lions are 4-0 after 3 road games. Bears 2-2 after 3 home games. Lions 34 ppg (19 allowed), Bears 23 ppg (24 allowed), Jay Cutler: 5 TDS/4 INTs/15 sacks, Matt Stafford: 11 TDs/3 INTs/5 sacks. So I'm not sure how it's stayed at 5 with the Lions playing at home.

podge57

just posted this in another thread, didn't see this one.

I have come close on CFB accums for the last few weeks, hit the jackpot last night

I had :


Baylor (-15.5) @ 10/11
Alabama (-29.0) @ 10/11
Georgia (-3.0) @ 20/21
TCU (-5.0) @ 10/11
Michigan (-7.0) @ 10/11
Houston (-11.5) @ 10/11
Notre Dame (-14.0) @ 10/11
Illinois (-14.0) @ 10/11
West Virginia (-20.0) @ 10/11

padraig_f

My bets this week.

6pm:
Eagles -3 @ Bills
Vikings -3 vs. Cardinals
9pm:
Jets +9 @ Pats (moved to +7 now)
SNF:
Packers -4 @ Falcons
MNF:
Lions -6 vs. Bears
Under: 47.5

Last week: 3-2. To date: 9-6.

Was looking at Super Bowl odds, and had a punt on the Cowboys at 33/1. They're 2-2, could be 4-0 with a bit more luck. Been carrying injuries to key players, but should see some of those clear up after the bye week. The longer Rob Ryan is there, the better the defense should get. Team with a big upside.

Eire-Dearg

Titans +3
Texans -4.5

Eagles -3
Giants -10

Eagles -3
Patriots -7
Lions -5
Packers -5.5
Chargers -3.5

AdrianII

gone with these for the early matchs, if they come off then i will throw everything on Pats -7 to beat the Jets

AdrianII

My luck was in today, won with the overs in the previous post, lost the accy and threw some on new england at -7.5 at 9.15pm, i got a bit nervous in the 4th quarter and decided to cover my bets so i did the jets at +9.5(they were down by 12 i think).

patriots won by 9 which meant that orginal bet and the cover both came in :eek:

El Horseboxo

If you take a bet before the game and then watch the game and betting site in play you can get some good middle opportunities. Works well with basketball more so than football.

Adamcp898

Bears +7 is starting to look mighty tempting

padraig_f

As I expected, all the money going on the Lions today, were -5 yesterday, currently -7, and the way it's going, could be over a touchdown before kick-off. Bookies will be rooting for the Bears tonight.

padraig_f

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Bears +7 is starting to look mighty tempting

I'm on the Lions -6 but if you like the Bears, I'd say wait a few hours, a chance it goes to +7.5 now.

Adamcp898

padraig_f wrote: »

I'm on the Lions -6 but if you like the Bears, I'd say wait a few hours, a chance it goes to +7.5 now.

Yeah I'm kinda starting to go on the opinion of the law of averages says they have to lose at some point, not the soundest betting philosophy to follow but the Lions will either lose or blow them away but they surely can't scrape another

El Horseboxo

I quite like the over 47 in this game. Detroit pass on 62% of their plays on average this season. Means the clock stops a lot allowing more time for scores. Chicago run the ball even less. They pass on average 64%. 2 pass heavy teams, both teams are in the top 5 for scoring defense and Chicago are in the top 3 for special team scoring. Also MNF game have a habit of going over.

Cue a low scoring game.

padraig_f

For the record, the line goes off at Lions -6.5, sorry if I put you off that Bears +7 (though it was still available for much of the day).

I'm on the under because I've little confidence in the Bears offense. Devin Hester's brilliant and all but he's not gonna run in a kick-off return every game.

Adamcp898

Lucky I decided to give it time to see if it would get higher than 7, when I checked again it was 6.5 so I left it

padraig_f

padraig_f wrote: »

My bets this week.

6pm:
Eagles -3 @ Bills
Vikings -3 vs. Cardinals
9pm:
Jets +9 @ Pats (moved to +7 now)
SNF:
Packers -4 @ Falcons
MNF:
Lions -6 vs. Bears
Under: 47.5

Last week: 3-2. To date: 9-6.

Had a good week, 4-1-1, brings season total to 13-7.

Trying to get on lines earlier in the week as I think there's better value then (getting +9 on the Jets last week got me a push, if I took the +7 that it was at kick-off, I'd have lost).

Some early picks this week:

6pm:
Eagles +0 @ Redskins
Bills +3 @ Giants
Lions -4 vs. 49ers

9pm
Ravens -6.5 vs. Texans (gone to -7.5 today)

MNF:
Jets -7 vs. Dolphins

A few I'm waiting for possible line moves before betting on:

Bears -3 vs. Vikings (waiting for -2.5)
Cowboys 7 vs. Patriots (waiting for +7.5)
Cowboys ML @ Patriots (wait for slightly better than 5/2)
Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers (not sure it goes to -3 but let's see)

Peyton Manning

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

Adamcp898

Cam Newton wrote: »

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

Cheers for the heads up on that one Tommy, would nearly be half tempted to go big on Ok State

Peyton Manning

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Cheers for the heads up on that one Tommy, would nearly be half tempted to go big on Ok State

It's a fascinating statistic. I actually think the Panthers could well win straight up this weekend, never mind the spread!

Adamcp898

Cam Newton wrote: »

It's a fascinating statistic. I actually think the Panthers could well win straight up this weekend, never mind the spread!

Was replying in the wrong thread to your double on Ok State/Georgia Tech but that's another interesting one on Cam. You can't go too long with some of his stats without eventually stumbling upon a win

JONJO THE MISER

First bet of the hockey season for me tonight.
Going with Vancouver to beat Philly at 11/10.

stingerro

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

First bet of the hockey season for me tonight.
Going with Vancouver to beat Philly at 11/10.

Read some analyses suggesting going under in this match - 2 good goalies, string defenses, potential for high level and close match in play off style.

JONJO THE MISER

Was thinking about going with unders but went with straight out bet.
The unders is 5.5 which is a good bet but i feel Vancouver will win this one out.

stingerro

4:5 10 minutes before end of regular time. Quite far away from under 5.5 I expected