RWC Pool C: Ireland vs Australia, Sat 17 Sep 9:30am; Pre/During/Post Match Thread

thomond2006

Ireland:
15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (c), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonny Sexton, 9 Eoin Reddan,
8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tom Court, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Denis Leamy, 20 Conor Murray, 21 Ronan O'Gara, 22 Andrew Trimble.

Australia:
15 Kurtley Beale, 14 James O'Connor, 13 Anthony Fainga'a, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia,
8 Radike Samo, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 James Horwill (capt), 4 Dan Vickerman, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Sekope Kepu.

Replacements:16 Tatafu Polota Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Ben McCalman, 20 Scott Higginbotham, 21 Luke Burgess, 22 Drew Mitchell.

Date: Saturday, September 17
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 21:30 (09:30 GMT)

Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Dave Pearson (England), Stuart Terheege (England)
Television match official: Graham Hughes (England)

Ireland meet Australia in Auckland on Saturday, in what is a likely decider of the winner of Pool C. After last weekend’s respective fixtures, Australia have been installed as clear favourites for this encounter. A win for Australia would seal a quarter final spot while a win for Ireland would be an enormous boost to their campaign, given their uneasy start to the World Cup. Australia simply need to continue in a similar vein of form to quash the Irish challenge. An Irish loss would mean a tricky decider against Italy in the final pool match to decide the runners-up of Pool C, in what could be a Lens ’99 situation all over again.

The big question surrounding the game is “Have we seen the best of Ireland?” Are the performances of the Six Nations (England aside), the warm-up campaign and the display against the US the best we can expect? Is there an element of waiting in the long grass for the real test to come this weekend? Ireland’s performance against the US may have been harshly criticised. In the first half Ireland were on top and only a few glaring errors prevented them from being 3 tries ahead at halftime. Rugby, like many sports, is a matter of small margins. It would have been a very different story had Ireland converted those chances. Indeed, it certainly would have been a different score line had the typically bleak New Zealand winter conditions not spoiled the quality of the game. With weather at such a magnitude, it becomes more difficult to accurately appraise Ireland’s showing. At the same time, the disappointing factor of the game was the last 20 minutes, where Ireland lost their way and couldn’t engineer a try bonus point.

It is fair to say the Irish players should know how to play in rainy conditions; it is commonplace throughout the northern hemisphere season. In attack the US Eagles offered little, only Todd Clever and Paul Emerick displayed some physicality which troubled Ireland. Their amazing speedster in Takudzwa Ngwenya was left anonymous without possession. As mentioned before, the conditions played a large part in making the game a dour spectacle but you would have thought USA would have tried to bring Ngwenya into the game as much as possible. Ireland’s defence held up well for the most part due to the lack of threat from the opposition but the Irish attacking play was at times unimaginative. The injection of an initiative and innovation into the Irish team is paramount for future success in the competition.

While Ireland may have a few tricks up their sleeve, it is hard to believe any number of new tactical moves will suffice to beat Australia. Their win over Italy was very indicative of what the men in gold can do. The first half was similar to a boxing match, where both packs attempt to take lumps out of one another. Italy were emotionally charged and gave it 110% to stay in the game, which to their credit they achieved as the halftime score was 6-6. The second half was a complete sea change; Australia took their foot off the clutch pedal and accelerated into life. Italy looked spent and they were routed as Australia scored four unanswered tries to seal an impressive win. It is a frightening prospect for Ireland, that Australia can turn it on at will. To go from shadow boxing (although that might be disrespectful to Italy) to landing numerous killer blows in an instant is incredible. In many of the games the ‘minnow’ side kept themselves in the game for a longer period, in this case when Australia decided to play their natural game, Italy were unmercifully annihilated and didn’t have a second wind.

THE COACHES

This game will be a watershed moment in the careers of both coaches.

Declan Kidney

The pressure now on 'Saint Deccie' is palpable. For 2 years he has escaped harsh criticism or judgement due to guiding Ireland to their first Grand Slam in 61 years. He then had free rein to retain (more or less) the same starting XV, regardless of form. Now his conservativeness has been badly exposed and it is not too far removed from a certain Italian football manager. He has allowed underperformance to go unpunished and has rigidly stuck to his guns. While his faith in certain players is admirable in some respects and has paid off in the past, it can also be considered blind. Questions now surround his proposed notion of "I'm building a squad for the World Cup".

Since the Grand Slam his treatment of certain positions has resembled the flogging of a dead horse. Waiting until the World Cup to jettison Tomas O'Leary from the squad was nothing short of a jest, O'Leary hasn't been the same player since breaking his ankle. This has left the 3 incumbent number 9s, in particular Conor Murray, short of match practice going into the tournament. Would Ireland's saviour at tighthead in Mike Ross have gotten his opportunity if John Hayes and Tony Buckley were fit back in February? How many shockers must Gordon D’Arcy have before he is dropped for non-performances? Of course all will be forgiven if Kidney can mastermind a victory over Australia and earn a facile opponent for the quarter finals. However you can expect a media backlash similar to 2007 if Ireland fail to deliver. There's plenty of ammunition to go around. The faith of the Irish supporter is quickly dwindling.

Robbie Deans

The former Crusaders boss is the man who has built a team whose style of play illuminates world rugby. In effect Deans has conceived the Barcelona of rugby and used all the brilliant talent at his disposal. He has created a side that possesses a perfect balance, an appreciation of time and space and most importantly an almost innate positivity around how the game should be played. The word “panache” sums up the Wallabies’ mode de vie.

Deans’ eye for young talent meant the national side quickly plugged the holes left by the departure of Aussie legends like Gregan, Larkham and Latham. The Australian squad has the lowest average age of all the squads in the competition with only three oldies in Sharpe (31), Vickerman (32) and Samo (36). Therefore, only those 3 players are the ones likely not to be around for the next World Cup in 2015. When you compare that to Ireland’s age profile, where most of the key players are 30+, it’s quite frightening.

The most admirable quality about Deans is his no nonsense selection policy. Reputation means nothing to him, the best man for the job is a player in form, and being experienced (for the most part) isn’t a deciding factor. Evidence to support this is ubiquitous. Deans dropped George Smith and Phil Waugh, Wallaby stalwarts for many years and legends of Australian rugby, out of the squad when it was clear David Pocock was the best option available. He handed James O’Connor his first cap just after his 18th birthday. At first O’Connor was raw and naive, now he is one of the most dangerous backs in world rugby. If Australia are victorious at this world rugby, Deans’ modus operandi may become the norm in rugby circles since everyone emulates winners. If so, everyone should cheer on the Wallabies who have set the bar for entertaining but ultimately effective rugby.

THE SELECTIONS

The Irish management have kept faith in largely the same team that faced USA. There are four changes to the starting XV, with Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien and Rob Kearney returning from injury while Eoin Reddan replaces Conor Murray at scrum-half. Sean Cronin is in line to make his World Cup debut from the bench after Jerry Flannery was forced to pull out of the squad due to injury. The lineup is as expected, it would have been a surprise had any major surgery taken place. A lack of viable alternatives means Gordon D’Arcy retains his place at 12. Andrew Trimble can feel very hard done by, he was the shining light of a dismal warm-up campaign and deserved to be one of the first names on the teamsheet. Jonny Sexton must justify his selection over Ronan O'Gara, many fancied the Munster maestro to take the number 10 shirt.

Australia make just one change to the starting lineup that defeated Italy. James O'Connor replaces the injured Digby Ioane on the left wing and Drew Mitchell returns after a long injury layoff to a place on the bench. After an excellent second half performance against Italy, there was never going to be many changes. O'Connor for Ioane doesn't weaken the side, in fact it strengthens them since O'Connor will take the place kicks ahead of the sometimes erratic Cooper.

KET TO AUSTRALIA: WILL GENIA AND QUADE COOPER

As a 9 and 10 partnership, Genia and Cooper are unmatched.

While Dan Carter remains the number one outside half in the world, there’s no doubt the most proficient halfback pairing in rugby is Will Genia and Quade Cooper. Together they possess an unrivalled reserve of vigour, vivaciousness and flair. Genia, touted as the next George Gregan, has installed himself as the undisputed number one scrum-half in the world. One of the strongest in the Wallaby squad when it comes to gym sessions, Genia is immensely physical and terrifies defenders when in possession. Kicking has become a staple word for boring rugby but while Genia kicks a lot of ball from the base, his box kicks are measured to perfection and facilitate the regathering of possession, not brain-dead hoofs in the air that we associate when an Irish number 9 decides to box kick. He provides the environment for Quade Cooper and the outside backs to work their many machinations, normally before passing the ball wide he fixes the first or second defender and puts the defence on the back foot. Unlike ‘stepping’ scrum-halves who sap the pace from an attack, Genia’s movements before passing are purposeful and effective.

What more can one say about Cooper? If he was an actor, he would be a Hollywood icon with numerous Academy Awards. Capable of almost anything at anytime from anywhere, he is a joy to watch and worth the ticket price alone. While he is a potential flaw in the Australian outfit due to his capacity to be over-exuberant at the worst of times, his positives far outweigh his negatives. His eagerness to try daring plays and think outside the box makes him a fascinating player. His unwillingness to tackle is no secret, so he is normally put in the back three for defensive set plays. While his temperament can be an issue (just ask Richie McCaw), for the most part he has developed into a mature player. New Zealand managed to get into Cooper’s head when the sides met in Auckland in the Tri-Nations, it is imperative Ireland similarly make the Queensland star express his weaknesses.

KEY TO IRELAND: THE BACKROW

Ferris, O'Brien & Heaslip: A monumental performance will be required from Ireland's loose forward trio for any hope of victory.

On paper, this is one of the most talented backrow combinations in the world. While there is no 'groundhog' among these three, their ball carrying capacity is enormous but their form is a concern. Ferris looks to have proven his fitness, he showed up well against USA but he is capable of much more and his performance levels should improve with more gametime. Sean O'Brien is back in the side after almost a month out through injury. During the warm-ups he was the 'go to' man when Ireland need front foot ball. With David Wallace injured, O'Brien has stepped to the plate and become a key component of the Irish pack. Heaslip hasn't displayed any form since Leinster's Heineken Cup win. He was struggling with fitness over the warm-ups but he has had enough gametime at this stage to shake off the cobwebs. On Saturday he must live up to his reputation as one of the top number eights in Europe and take the game to Australia.

The Irish backrow face a massive test against their Australian counterparts. The combination of Elsom, Pocock and Samo is balanced and very effective. If Richie McCaw struggles to keep Pocock quiet at the breakdown, then there's little hope for Ireland in that department. Perhaps a tactic would be to designate one of the Irish trio to clear out Pocock at every ruck, before he sets himself to steal the ball. Once Pocock gets his hands on the ball and begins to grapple, the contest for possession is effectively over.

PREDICTION

Ireland need to step up in every department to live with Australia. On paper if both sides turn up there is only one winner. If Australia are allowed to play their natural game, then Ireland's challenge won't last long. If the Irish go out with an attitude of "We'll give it a lash" and get in the faces of the Wallabies early, they could cause problems. The decision making between kicking, running and passing will prove crucial. Australia are too naturally talented and no matter how much pressure they are put under, they will create chances and score tries. Ireland have been written off but they still have the capacity to spring a surprise. Still it's an unlikely event here: Australia to win by 10-15 points.

Eden Park, Auckland. Capacity: 60,000

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IRFU logo taken from www.IrishRugby.ie. RWC logo taken from http://ninetyninecall.files.wordpress.com. Wallabies logo taken from munsterfans.com

Player images taken from Sky Sports/Planet Rugby. Declan Kidney (thisisdorset.net), Robbie Deans (sailsburyjournal.co.uk). Eden Park (portfolio.populous.com)

Lineups/Refs/Date&Time taken from PR:
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3558_7175488,00.html
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16024_7177828,00.html

Everything else is my own work.

JustinDee

Australia

thomond2006 wrote: »

IRFU logo taken from wikipedia

Always a nice read. Cheers.

I'll point out that the logo is actually from www.IrishRugby.ie, even if pasted from wikipedia.

thomond2006

Matt Williams

JustinDee wrote: »

Always a nice read. Cheers.

I'll point out that the logo is actually from www.IrishRugby.ie, even if pasted from wikipedia.

Thanks for pointing that out, I'll edit that in.

Quint2010

Matt Williams

Great preview as ever. The only hope I am clinging to is that everyone (particularly here) has written Ireland off. Thats when we can be at our most dangerous. My head is predicting a 15 point defeat and my heart is predicting a heroic 3 point defeat. But we won't win.

part time punk

Great preview. Think the under-dog factor is a big one, we nearly always play better when not favourites. Any idea what the crowd will be like, any Kiwis will be cheering Ireland but will the stadium be more green than gold? As you said it's crucail for our backrow to play as we know they all can. Heart says Ireland with a good start, rattling Oz, getting a few points ahead, keeping it tight and making no mistakes and we'll win with a last minute drop goal. Head unfortunately says Australia by 15 -20. Hopefully my head is wrong !

KidMonT

Matt Williams

Ireland looking great on paper but it's all Australia when we're talking about the ability to perform. This game should be an epic if Ireland turn up. I hope to god the Irish back row wreaks havoc. Can't wait!

pajunior

Beautiful write up as always.

Looking forward to this one quite a lot. I don't know why but for some reaon I expect a really big performance from Ireland and for the game to turn into a classic. Still Australia by 10 for me.

marco_polo

part time punk wrote: »

Great preview. Think the under-dog factor is a big one, we nearly always play better when not favourites. Any idea what the crowd will be like, any Kiwis will be cheering Ireland but will the stadium be more green than gold? As you said it's crucail for our backrow to play as we know they all can. Heart says Ireland with a good start, rattling Oz, getting a few points ahead, keeping it tight and making no mistakes and we'll win with a last minute drop goal. Head unfortunately says Australia by 15 -20. Hopefully my head is wrong !

It was a sell out. As for the Kiwis I think it is safe to say they won't be waving mini aussie flags or wearing Quade Cooper t-shirts

pajunior

marco_polo wrote: »

It was a sell out. As for the Kiwis I think it is safe to say they won't be waving mini aussie flags or wearing Quade Cooper t-shirts

No we should get a bit of support from the Kiwis.

Otacon

Loving the write-up. Always brilliant.

BTW Flannery is still on your bench

thomond2006

Matt Williams

Otacon wrote: »

BTW Flannery is still on your bench

*stops living in denial*

totallegend

Australia

pajunior wrote: »

Beautiful write up as always.

Looking forward to this one quite a lot. I don't know why but for some reaon I expect a really big performance from Ireland and for the game to turn into a classic. Still Australia by 10 for me.

+ 1 on all of that

- Takes a lot of effort to write such a thorough preview, good man Thomond.

- I also think Ireland are going to pull a decent performance out of the bag here; it's rare enough that we play really badly against the top sides and I think we can raise our game again this weekend. We need early scores to do it though, chasing the game against this Australia team is asking for trouble.

Hopefully we can take advantage of their 5-2 split on the bench by Ferris and O'Brien taking a couple of the Aussie backs out of commission (cf: David Skrela a few weeks ago).

maddness

Great post, thanks for the effort.
It all looks like Australia by about 20 points but I think we will score a late try or two when the Aussies take the foot off the gas in the last 20.
In spite of the inept management team I think it will be closer than people might think.
Comon Ireland.

Hype710

I think we have parity in the second row, back row (unless we let Pocock wreak havoc) and centres. They are markedly better in the front row, at half back and in the back three. However we are massive, massive underdogs and I can see this one being close-ish, lets say 25-18 to Australia

Ardillaun

Matt Williams

What if D'Arcy and Earls find themselves together out wide, defending a spectacular assault without BOD to guide them? At some point it probably will happen. Do they trust each other enough to be effective? Trimble may be missed in such a situation.

stephen_n

Call it blind faith because there is nothing in the performances that would suggest it but I think we might do this. A lot is going to rest on SOB's shoulders and how he can match up to Pocock on the deck. It will take a supreme effort from Ireland to win this and it certainly won't be from playing running rugby as our backline clearly hasn't got it or it has been coached out of them which ever way you want to look at it. Back in our favourite position of underdogs I think we might just pull out a great defensive performance.

LostGirly

Matt Williams

Ridiculously excited for this game! Brilliant write up Thomand2006, first one I'v ever read as I'm new in these parts but that is excellent! Head says Australia by 9/10 and heart really really wants Ireland to do it! I think they'll put up an excellent performance for some reason (I've nothing to back that statement up) but I don't think it will be enough! I hope I'm wrong (although my prediction pool score would like for me to be right )

stephen_k

Matt Williams

I hate myself for saying it but I just can't see us winning this, my prediction is we'll stay with them (within 10 points) for 60 mins and then leak a couple of late tries... Aus by 24

The_Kew_Tour

Aussie to give us a lesson I am afraid 20-25 points

scriba

Australia

I'd say we'll be within seven points, we normally hang in there with the Aussies. I voted an Ireland win in the poll though! Come on Ireland! Can't wait for Saturday (due to excitement, dread and hope in equal measures).

Kiwi_knock

Australia

The game is going to be a lot closer than people think, I believe Ireland can eke a narrow 3 point win. . It is going to take a massive performance to win but victory is achievable.

Hermy

Australia

Ireland to click like they did against England in this years Six Nations and put Australia to the sword.

onlyrocknroll

Is anybody else not voting because they harbour irrationally optimistic hopes of winning but don't want to embarrass themselves.

JRant

Excellent analysis as always from Thomond.

If our pack can at least give us parity then the Reddan/Sexton partnership can flourish. It is the most important axis for creating the much needed space for our backline, which has been sadly lacking of late.

We always play well against the aussies historically and I don't see this being any different. Think this game will be close and may depend on how Bryce refs the breakdown so place kicking might be vital.

4wardpass

First posting and thanks for such an excellent and thorough write up Thomond.
I'm a massive Wallabies fan (so it always sucks when we have to play them).
I've gone over this match in so many different permutations and combinations and I keep ending up with the same result.
Ireland have incredible talent in most positions. Looking at the selected team I would have only made one change (Starting Trimble). On paper we should be able to hold our own against them.
But we are on abysmal form and are ranked our lowest ever(8th below Scotland). We aren't matching our performance to our talents. I think we played quite well against USA considering the conditions but not well enough to improve confidence. The scoreboard is what matters in a world cup not performance I suppose. In my opinion we are the most potent attacking team in the northern hemisphere (when we click) and our defense is excellent.
But..and it really kills me to say this, I can't see us beating Australia. I know they are usually tight affairs but. I just can't see it happening. Australia are playing sublime rugby.
Really thrilling to watch . I have no doubt that conditions allowing, it will be one of the games of the tournament. Ireland have too much to lose to put in a lacklustre performance, but everything leading up to this match suggests Australia will beat us. I just hope it won't be embarrassing. Even as a supporter of Ireland I have noticed that everytime they get the ball in hand I get worried and EXPECT them to mess up. I hate saying that and I'm normally so positive.
Australi to win comfortably but with a respectable Irish performance.
I don't see us falling to Italy or Russia and thus ending up second and probably playing Boks (or maybe Samoa!) who we have the ability to beat. After that-who knows?
Our teams a bit like our weather: Unpredictable.

davegrohl48

Not sure Australia are alot better in front row. Healy/Ross usually hold their ground and Healy on the world stage is underrated in the loose.
We have five ball carriers who can make reasonable ground. Healy, Ferris, Heaslip, OBrien and Bowe.
Kearney can make ground but will likely just mind the house against a dangerous backline like Australias. I think we may look to work dropgoals. Logically it is hard to see us beating Australia on the try count. All form going a long way back points to the fact that is is unlikely we can score more tries than them. On a wet day we could come out on top with a converted try, two drop goals and taking our penalties. If we have pressure on them upfront few penalties should result.
Amazed it isn't used more often in Irish setup? Even against weak opposition we don't exactly ever blitz anyone scoring tries? We're not clinical.

Conas

I've the goosebumps I'm so excited. I'm also really really nervous. I know we can win this one if we play to our full potential. I'm critical of D'Arcy and also Earls selection over Trimble, but I hope these guys can have a stormer. I pray they do. Our backrow playing at 100% is the best in the World. It's going to be some match.

SomeFool

Australia

Nice job on the op Thomond
Personally I think they will win this game, I'm sure it's been at the back of every players mind for the last six months so I'll be expecting them to go at it like the France game in 09 - great performance and result that few saw coming
COME ON IRELAND!!!!!!!

Reloc8

The heart says x the head says y.

I am happier looking at the Irish 15 on paper than I could possibly be when I look at the same team on the pitch...

At this stage, just very much looking forward to the match. If there is a road-map for Ireland it is :-


(brilliant OP btw)

.ak

Great post Thomand! As usual!

bleg

Australia

Biggest game of the careers of many of these Irish players.

Ireland by 5!!!