Upcoming bye-election discussion - Mod instruction post #6. Please read carefully.

Arciphel

Is this the appropriate forum to have a thread on the upcoming bye-election? Would be great to have a thread to compare election pre-election promises, discuss the candidates manifestos etc?

I read today that FF candidate David McGuinness is against the selling-off of parts of the ESB, wonder what people think of his views?

- http://www.davidmcguinness.ie/time-for-labour%E2%80%99s-patrick-nulty-to-clarify-position-on-sale-of-esb-%E2%80%93-mcguinness#comments

godscop

You lost me on FF candidate....

kenon

Theres quite an active thread about the bye-election on the politics forum.

In short, David McGuinness hasn't a hope so it doesn't really matter what he believes.

JupiterKid

I would reckon Labour would be most likely to pick up a seat here. Joan Burton is a Senior minister so the party would see a good chance of getting a second seat in Dublin West.

Castleknock however would be most likely to plump for Fine Gael and Ruth Coppinger of Joe Higgins's Socialist Party would be popular in the working class areas like Corduff and Whitestown.

FF can forget about a seat here.

jack presley

Arciphel wrote: »

I read today that FF candidate David McGuinness is against the selling-off of parts of the ESB

Of course he is, he's part of the opposition. It their job to disagree with everything the Government do.

Zaph

As with the 2011 General Election discussion thread, we would expect anyone with connections (including family/personal friend/canvasser) to any candidate to declare this in the interests of full disclosure. Should we discover that you have failed to do so you can expect a ban from this forum.

Luttrell1975

Weary of politics. Local issues mean nothing. Nobody you send to the Dail does anything different. Not in Dublin West anyhow.

athtrasna

So not in the mood for any election now, not sure why I should vote for any rejects from previous elections...gonna wait and see when all the candidates are declared.

Morag

The only person out of the lot of them who'd I'd consider would be O'Gorman even if he is a Green, purely to give a young lad a chance and his previous campagains have been a hell of lot better in terms of answering emals and web presence. Besdies I reckon it would be fun to have a Green back in the Dáil, better a Green then a FF/FG/SF or Lab atm.

Murt10

Sharrow wrote: »

The only person out of the lot of them who'd I'd consider would be O'Gorman even if he is a Green, purely to give a young lad a chance and his previous campagains have been a hell of lot better in terms of answering emals and web presence. Besdies I reckon it would be fun to have a Green back in the Dáil, better a Green then a FF/FG/SF or Lab atm.

If he runs, he gets my No 1 as well.

chucknorris

Zaph wrote: »

As with the 2011 General Election discussion thread, we would expect anyone with connections (including family/personal friend/canvasser) to any candidate to declare this in the interests of full disclosure. Should we discover that you have failed to do so you can expect a ban from this forum.

Let me get it out now. I have a connection to David McGuinness but all of the usual posters from the previous 2011 GE thread have already jumped on this one and they know my view's.

KEEP IT CLEAN and fair

Godge

First count prediction:

1 Dennison (FG)
2 Nulty (Labour)
3 Coppinger (Socialist Party)
4 Donnelly (SF)
5 McGuinness (FF)
6 O'Gorman (GP)

I only expect FG to top the poll because Mitchell is a Dublin candidate and the Mitchell name is known in Dublin West. without the Presidential election, Nulty would probably top the poll.

Dublin West has two council wards - Castleknock and Mulhuddart (plus a bit of a Swords ward). Only O'Gorman is from the Castleknock ward. Expect that FG will take the votes from that ward. Probably not be enough to win the seat though.

Nulty or Coppinger, whichever is second come the last count is the best bet for the seat. A small possibility for Dennison would be Nulty finishing third and a section of transfers going to him from Nulty because of the coalition thing. Other way round (nulty 2nd) would almost certainly see Dennison lose out.

FF will suffer from being FF, not having a Presidential candidate, McGuinness' extremely poor showing in the general election and picking someone from the Mulhuddart end where there are strong rivals. It is possible, though unlikely that FF could finish 6th (on the basis of O'Gorman being the only Castleknock candidate). That could change if there was a strong independent based in the Castleknock end.

Not a foregone conclusion but you would have to see Nulty as favourite. Of the three main candidates for the seat (Coppinger/Dennison the others), he is the only one who will pick up transfers from both. His main danger is a strong showing from SF who then transfer to Coppinger to keep her ahead of Nulty.

Still a long way to go and the government's economic plan and other developments in the euro could have a big impact.

oblivious

Godge wrote: »

Not a foregone conclusion but you would have to see Nulty as favourite. Of the three main candidates for the seat (Coppinger/Dennison the others), he is the only one who will pick up transfers from both. His main danger is a strong showing from SF who then transfer to Coppinger to keep her ahead of Nulty.

Still a long way to go and the government's economic plan and other developments in the euro could have a big impact.

Yea i could see Nulty may pull some of the old FF vote, but i think we may see if SF are going to be a major national party if the get a major bump from a positive reception of Presidency candidacy

dtf

Godge wrote: »

First count prediction:

1 Dennison (FG)
2 Nulty (Labour)
3 Coppinger (Socialist Party)
4 Donnelly (SF)
5 McGuinness (FF)
6 O'Gorman (GP)

Has Dennison been confirmed as the FG canditate?

wildlifeboy

1 O'Gormain
2 Nulty

chucknorris

dtf wrote: »

Has Dennison been confirmed as the FG canditate?

Nope!

Arciphel

They are leaving it a bit late aren't they? Are they seriously considering running Eithne Loftus, think it wouldn't be a good move.

chucknorris

Arciphel wrote: »

They are leaving it a bit late aren't they? Are they seriously considering running Eithne Loftus, think it wouldn't be a good move.

Eithne Loftus looks the favorite to run. This would surely be to take advantage of the Castleknock vote. This vote will decide it all.

dtf

chucknorris wrote: »

Eithne Loftus looks the favorite to run. This would surely be to take advantage of the Castleknock vote. This vote will decide it all.

Loftus selected at FG convention last night

Godge

dtf wrote: »

Loftus selected at FG convention last night

yes, had assumed Dennison as I knew nothing about internal FG politics and he was the general election candidate. She probably has a better chance than Dennison of topping the poll but will she pick up enough transfers?

Arciphel

Smooth moves from Leo, go for Loftus who will only serve one term if she gets in, no competition for him in the next general election.

chucknorris

Arciphel wrote: »

Smooth moves from Leo, go for Loftus who will only serve one term if she gets in, no competition for him in the next general election.

It's to hoover up Castleknock votes too

Arciphel

Risky strategy though, switching this close to the election and everything. I wonder if the Castleknock crowd are going to swing it, is there not just as many potential votes going in the newly incorporated area to the North of D15 towards Swords?

Dec1981

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7ecv53OfDY

what's your view on this "flip flop answer"??

Zaph

Dec1981 wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7ecv53OfDY

what's your view on this "flip flop answer"??

Care to disclose your connection with any of the other candidates?

Dec1981

Zaph wrote: »

Care to disclose your connection with any of the other candidates?

Zaph

I don't have a connection to any candidate running and after a recent move into Area I am not yet registered to vote in electon

Zaph

Dec1981 wrote: »

Zaph

I don't have a connection to any candidate running and after a recent move into Area I am not yet registered to vote in electon

You don't have to be registered to vote in the area to have a connection. So would you like to reconsider your reply to my question. Bear in mind that as an admin I have access to a lot of tools that effectively serve as a lie detector, so last chance to come clean.

chucknorris

Zaph wrote: »

Care to disclose your connection with any of the other candidates?

In fairness Zaph, no one else has been asked the same question on this thread after they posted their comments. Dec1981 (whom I cannot be sure who it is) hasn't attacked anyone and simply asked a question. There are hundred's of marauders on boards.ie

Dec1981 wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7ecv53OfDY

what's your view on this "flip flop answer"??

My answer to this video is fairly straight forward. All candidates will be well coached in the next few weeks on what to say and what not to say.

On this occasion, Nulty was caught offside. His position is admirable but he in a party that has a different view. He will need to be very clear when he comes across the likes of Vincent Browne.

On the video it's self. It is not possible to vote with Labour and also be confident to have his party change their entire position on those charges.

The newer younger candidates have a steep learning curve over the next few weeks and Patrick will realise that the last few years in opposition is allot easier than running in an election where his party is in power. Being against everything is as I say admirable but he will be pulled apart by everyone if he doesn't get some serious coaching and soon.

PS: I believe the writ is to be lifted on Monday or possibly Tuesday.

:rolleyes:

Zaph

chucknorris wrote: »

In fairness Zaph, no one else has been asked the same question on this thread after they posted their comments. Dec1981 (whom I cannot be sure who it is) hasn't attacked anyone and simply asked a question. There are hundred's of marauders on boards.ie

True, but no-one else has come into the thread and with their first ever post on boards posted something questioning one of the candidates. When someone does that I start digging, and while I know the answer already, I'm giving Dec1981 the opportunity to pin his colours to the mast before I'm forced to ban him from the forum for the duration of the campaign.

chucknorris

Zaph wrote: »

True, but no-one else has come into the thread and with their first ever post on boards posted something questioning one of the candidates. When someone does that I start digging, and while I know the answer already, I'm giving Dec1981 the opportunity to pin his colours to the mast before I'm forced to ban him from the forum for the duration of the campaign.

Dec1981 - come clean on who you know from the candidates. There is allot of people here who clearly have their own leanings.

PS: There is nothing wrong with coming out

The Waltzing Consumer

Dec1981 wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7ecv53OfDY

what's your view on this "flip flop answer"??

Well that is typical Nulty to be fair.

He acts like he is in opposition yet his party are in Government.

Would he have the balls to resign from Labour based on his own views if they are completely against Government policy? No, no he would not. Tells you all you need to know. He will moan like Joe Higgins now, but if he gets elected, he will flip flop on everything.

He is a populist. Nothing else.

If people fall for it, well, they are stupid then. It is pretty obvious.