Laying on Betfair

PeterB11

Alright so for the last two days I've been trying this out on paper and its been very profitable it seems. Although, its on paper, no doubt when I put it into practice next week it will go tits up. Anyway maybe if I decide to give this a go I might keep a laying diary or blog on this. We'll see..

Started with a "bank" of €300 on the american racing Tuesday night, using €20 and €30 stakes on 3rd favourites and above, but not exceeding 12.5.
Ended up at the end of the night €650 in bank after commission. €350 profit not bad for a night watching telly and it seemed to be easy picking losers in the amercan races. although the liquidity is alot less I might have trouble getting my bets match for real.

Today I've kept my details of the races at Yarmouth. Again, starting bank of €300. I will keep the full €20 stake that I win (in reality its going to be less, 5% commission from Betfair) and at the end, my profits (if i'm profitable) i will deduct 5% from the end total profits.

Yarmouth:
14:10 Layed chalk and cheese for €20 @ 9.8 my liability was 176 (bal: €320)
14.40 Layed Tafawak for €20 @ 13.5 liability was 250 (€340)
16.10 Layed A boy named suzi for €30 @ 10 liability was 270 (€370)
16.40 Layed Motirani for €30 @ 9.8 liability was 264 (€400)
17.10 Layed Till Dawn for €40 @ 9.8 Liability was 352 (€440)
Profit of €140 today then.

My liability, is of course high, but I am studying these horses and picking ones I feel will DEFINITELY NOT win. Although "A boy named Suzi" challenged the winner and was beaten by a neck that would have effectively cleaned out my starting bank quite substantially. Again, this is only an experiment and I am considering putting this into action in the coming weeks.

My target is to double my starting bank of €300 to €600 so I can withdraw my original money so all in all if i double my cash I essentially won't be losing anything really. And if I profit, happy days

I certainly wouldn't mind making €140 3 out of 7 days a week. And only picking races and horses I am CERTAIN I will profit from.
A lot say it's the quick way to the poor house, and I do not doubt that for a minute but it's only for a bit of fun at the minute

PeterB11

Kempton next, here's my lay selections we'll see how I fair out with a starting balance of €440..

5.40 Inquisitress lay €30 @ 9.2 liability of €246 (€470)
6.10 Lay Flying Cherry €20 @ 15.5 liability of €290 (€490)
7.10 Lay Fairest Isle €40 @ 11.5 liability of €420 (update to follow) Last Lay Of The Day ..

Nice to see a lay log, I hope it goes well for you. Realistically though the odds are against you on Betfair, yokes that go off 9 or 10/1 SP would be trading at 13.0/14.0 on Betfair, it's too much of a margin of fat really.

Also every runner has a chance of winning unfortunately (or fortunately depending how you look at it).

In saying that you would have a decent chance of doubling €300, if you keep going though you'll get caught eventually.

PeterB11

Yeah all this is quite true, and I know i'm gonna get burned soon and it could very well be this next race I have "layed".. this is all on paper and just more of an experiment than anything and eventually as always luck will run out..

And I agree 100%. Betfair is a backers market really.

Thanks for your input

PeterB11

starting balance of €440..

5.40 Inquisitress lay €30 @ 9.2 liability of €246 (€470)
6.10 Lay Flying Cherry €20 @ 15.5 liability of €290 (€490)
7.10 Lay Fairest Isle €40 @ 11.5 liability of €420 (530)

Brings todays total balance of €530
€503 after Betfairs 5% Commission.

All in all €203 euro profit. Not bad. But very optimistic.

Going to limit the lays to only FIVE chosen races to minimize destruction

Tomorro should be interesting. Only €100 needed before I withdraw my original €300 and it should either be free money from there or lose all which if I bank €600 and withdraw my original cash it won't really matter

Good luck

MrJoeSoap

Have to say I agree with RoverJames but congrats on the wins so far, you've been pretty level-headed and realistic which is key. Like any system, if it was that easy everyone would be doing it and you will get caught eventually. But enjoy your run of winners while they last!

PeterB11

PeterB11 wrote: »

................... this is all on paper and just more of an experiment than anything and eventually as always luck will run out..

And I agree 100%. Betfair is a backers market really.

Thanks for your input

PeterB11 wrote: »

..................
Tomorro should be interesting. Only €100 needed before I withdraw my original €300 and it should either be free money from there or lose all which if I bank €600 and withdraw my original cash it won't really matter

Good luck

I'm just wondering, is this a paper trade still or have you started with cash, if it's a paper trade I'm a tad lost as to why tomorrow is important

PeterB11 wrote: »

..........

And I agree 100%. Betfair is a backers market really.

........

I never said that

PeterB11

Tomorrow will be "interesting" not important as you put it, as its on paper only and if there was real money involved, another €100 would see me withdrawing my original €300 I put in, thus giving me free money to gamble with. It's just an experiment for now..

No you didn't, I did I said i agree 100%. And I said its a backers market really

paddyscot

aye guys ive been in the uk the last month working with a few mates they are in a consortium a couple o the guys have been making a living a very healthy living and thier sport of choice.. cricket they are cleaning up 2 of them have given up thier jobs accountants IT guys im just getting into it myslef im not a gambler and think this is the key dont let your mind run away be analytical and disiplined everyone thinks that betting is easy money but theses guys are putting in a 60 hour week aye theres loses and not everyone is cut out for it but when your long term unempoyed so ive nothing to loose i know its not that easy but keep the posts coming and i will keep a log myself once im up and running

cheers for the advice

PeterB11

Newbury 16th Sept. Starting balance: €503

14.00 Lay Amphora @ 9.4 for €20 liability €168 (€533) Had €10 on Swing It at 5/2 beaten by Mince at 10/1 .. Anyway..
14.35 Lay Great Shot @ 20 for €20 liability €380 (€553) Going for massive liability here, just because I feel like it :P Anyway, a higher odds horse won, Sour Mash, the reason I didn't pick him instead of Great Shot was simply because Dettori was the pilot and Ed Dunlop the trainer. Nuff Said. Moving on....

15.45 Lay Spoke to Carlo @20 for €20 liability €380 (€572.35) again another massive liability, but the 20-1 shot has already won at 14.35, can't possible happen again can it :P we shall see brings todays profits to a total of €69.35 if this one comes in leaving me with a total bank of €572.35

The next lay will be my last lay of the day, and I will try to hit my €600 target. At which, I will go back to laying with €300 having taken my original €300 so it's essentially "risk free" from here on in..... After this final lay, of couse...

After today, my target will be between €50-€100 a day from laying, but only laying certain races, and no more than 5 races a day.

18.00 Lay Pittodrie Star @20 for €30 liability €570 .. Biggest liability of the day, just to get me to the €600 mark. I should really quit as i've had a great day seeing €70 profit today. And if it was real money I would have stopped, but one last race :P

Pittodrie Star done me proud and lost, closing balance today is €600.85

Danny911

Looks interesting, have 500 to invest would like to double it you seem to be going well

good luck on your last horse might try this

PeterB11

Danny911 wrote: »

Looks interesting, have 500 to invest would like to double it you seem to be going well

good luck on your last horse might try this

you might want to "paper trade" first and see are your selections worthy, this is pure luck and it will run out


BUT

On a side note

€600 euro target hit !!

End of experiment :P

paddyscot

hi lads good info i used 10 euro today backed a couple of favorites then started laying at 2 euro a race and turned it into 105 by end of day just experimenting at the moment but fairly positive testing the water interesting though ...