Most likely starships

ciaranmac

Rubecula wrote: »

You can not predict the future.

You may be able to forecast the future to a degree, but it is not right to say ""XXX will happen by XXX date" Nobody can predict these things.

Of course they can predict things. Just not the things that actually happen :rolleyes:

They predicted free electricity, nuclear powered cars and colonies on the moon. They didn't predict Facebook on smartphones.

Rubecula

ciaranmac, you are right of course, and it is my mistake. I predict a great future for you in picking up my mistakes ....

Yes, there have been some pretty wild predictions of the future. Not sure I can come up with any valid ones that have come true mind you.

keane2097

Pretty sure Kurzweil's predictions about the latter half of the last century were fairly accurate.

Rubecula

I would tend to count them as forecasts rather than predictions though.

keane2097

Rubecula wrote: »

I would tend to count them as forecasts rather than predictions though.

Good for you!

forecast
past participle, past tense of fore·cast
Verb:
Predict or estimate (a future event or trend).
Synonyms:
predict - prognosticate - foresee - foretell - anticipate

Rubecula

What I mean is to me a forecast say what MAY happen if things go the way they can, whereas a prediction say what WILL happen, and you can not avoid it.

keane2097

Rubecula wrote: »

What I mean is to me a forecast say what MAY happen if things go the way they can, whereas a prediction say what WILL happen, and you can not avoid it.

Well, whatever way you want to mangle the English language to try and prove a point the documented fact of the matter is he predicted technology developments in the last century with a somewhat impressive degree of accuracy.

Simply redefining what you choose the words to mean is a strange practise and doesn't change or diminish the "achievement" in the slightest.

Rubecula

Not trying to mangle anything. I simply point out that predictions are not ever truly correct. But you are as entitled to your beliefs as I am myself. No argument.

keane2097

There's no argument because the statement "predictions are not ever truly correct" is demonstrably and obviously false.

I predict I will make another post in this thread before 3pm.

keane2097

Prediction 100% "truly" (whatever that means) correct.

QED.

Rubecula

????

Like I said "No argument"

Capt'n Midnight

Predictions for Semiconductor still continue to defy obvious manufacturing limits.

However, they are by the same people who set all the previous 'impossible' targets and based on the industry experience those that are likely to be achievable in the foreseeable future given current knowledge and techniques.

http://www.itrs.net/

The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, known throughout the world as the ITRS, is the fifteen-year assessment of the semiconductor industry’s future technology requirements. These future needs drive present-day strategies for world-wide research and development among manufacturers’ research facilities, universities, and national labs.

The latest 'cheat' is 3D chips. For stuff like memory and cache you can stack smaller subunits on top of each other with a common bus. This means you can improve yield since smaller chips are less likely to have defects, the common bus can be made using previous generation technology. A little improvement but it's effects will trickle through our civilization.


For spacecraft it means that the mass and power requirements for computing are reducing all the time.

By 2017 accelerometers 1mm3 using 15uw of power , at a cost of 20c
By 2026 DRAM 1/2 pitch 6.3nm (32 nm now) - so memory per mm2 will go up by a factor of 25, a Terabyte of RAM is in the offing.


Now back to ET.

ET doesn't need quantum mechanics to build generation ships. Even nuclear reactors could have been built by trial and error. Heck if they had something like the Oklo reactor on their planet they could have breed one.

So ET may not have lasers or advanced semiconductors, which means we could reverse engineer, desiminate information and implement their technology faster than they could assimilate ours. Of course they could use microminature mechanisms.

ET might not have such rapid social change for these reasons and may be like Imperial China or Ancient Egypt with grand schemes that take many lifetimes

Rubecula

Purely from my own point of view, I dislike the idea of Generation Ships. They may turn out to be the only really viable way of getting to the stars, but I think that putting unborn generations into a spacecraft without their permission somehow immoral. The first generation may have chosen to go into Space, but their offspring won't have been given the choice.

If it is ever found to be possible my first choice would be some form of FTL.

My second choice would be suspended animation.

As for probes. I think they are all very well and good, but I think it is more in human nature to want to go out there in person.

Not sure what other Boardsies feel and I am only speaking for myself on this, but does anyone agree?

shizz

Rubecula wrote: »

Purely from my own point of view, I dislike the idea of Generation Ships. They may turn out to be the only really viable way of getting to the stars, but I think that putting unborn generations into a spacecraft without their permission somehow immoral. The first generation may have chosen to go into Space, but their offspring won't have been given the choice.

If it is ever found to be possible my first choice would be some form of FTL.

My second choice would be suspended animation.

As for probes. I think they are all very well and good, but I think it is more in human nature to want to go out there in person.

Not sure what other Boardsies feel and I am only speaking for myself on this, but does anyone agree?

Well I can see where you are coming from with generation ships, but I was always under the impression that that idea was from having to pretty much relocating the human race. In that case I don't see it as so.

keane2097

Probably no more immoral than people who left Europe for an uncertain future in the New World really.

seamus

We're all subject to the decisions of our ancestors, so I don't really see an issue there.

The problem I could see with generational ships is that while subsequent generations will grow up on the ship and so will be less susceptible to cabin fever, at the same time they will spend most of their life knowing that they're just a link in a chain and are unlikely to accomplish anything new or experience anything new.

A generational ship is great for the first generation and the last, but for all the generations in between, it could be a bit of a dull existence.

Which could lead to someone going postal or other social issues on board.

shizz

seamus wrote: »

We're all subject to the decisions of our ancestors, so I don't really see an issue there.

The problem I could see with generational ships is that while subsequent generations will grow up on the ship and so will be less susceptible to cabin fever, at the same time they will spend most of their life knowing that they're just a link in a chain and are unlikely to accomplish anything new or experience anything new.

A generational ship is great for the first generation and the last, but for all the generations in between, it could be a bit of a dull existence.

Which could lead to someone going postal or other social issues on board.

Yeah it does seem like a big issue. But that notion could be kept from the majority and probably would be. How would they know any different?

It's a pretty cool thought though. Somewhere there could be a generation ship just endlessly floating through the galaxy.

Rubecula

keane2097 wrote: »

Probably no more immoral than people who left Europe for an uncertain future in the New World really.

Very true, I had not thought of it in that way.

seamus wrote: »

We're all subject to the decisions of our ancestors, so I don't really see an issue there.

The problem I could see with generational ships is that while subsequent generations will grow up on the ship and so will be less susceptible to cabin fever, at the same time they will spend most of their life knowing that they're just a link in a chain and are unlikely to accomplish anything new or experience anything new.

A generational ship is great for the first generation and the last, but for all the generations in between, it could be a bit of a dull existence.

Which could lead to someone going postal or other social issues on board.

Good post and good points.

shizz wrote: »

Yeah it does seem like a big issue. But that notion could be kept from the majority and probably would be. How would they know any different?

It's a pretty cool thought though. Somewhere there could be a generation ship just endlessly floating through the galaxy.

Endlessly floating through the galaxy sounds a bit scary to me. I would rather have a set destination in mind. But I think it may appeal to some.

shizz

Rubecula wrote: »

Endlessly floating through the galaxy sounds a bit scary to me. I would rather have a set destination in mind. But I think it may appeal to some.

Well endless to most.

Capt'n Midnight

Rubecula wrote: »

The first generation may have chosen to go into Space, but their offspring won't have been given the choice.

As long as you get the parents to sign the waivers

If it is ever found to be possible my first choice would be some form of FTL.

My second choice would be suspended animation.

FLT would be nice, if you aren't worried about tearing the universe a new arse.

Suspended animation is going to be very difficult.
vertebrates don't survive freezing, yes some can withstand ice crystals in their cells, but brains and stuff use anti freeze , so cellular mechanisms will still happen , although more slowly, diffusion would handle oxygen requirements. every 10 degree drop halves reaction rates, so presumably would double life expectancy. 0 degrees would mean 2^4 so age 1/16th as fast during the time you sleep, to get vastly longer times you would have to stop metabolism and hopefully the levels of neurotransmatters wouldn't change.

Pity we are mammals, otherwise seed ships would be so much easier.

As for probes. I think they are all very well and good, but I think it is more in human nature to want to go out there in person.

Probes first, it's just insurance. Since the probes don't necessiarilay have to slow down they can travel much faster and so they won't delay things too much.

Rubecula

Do you think that in time there will be a sort of Interstellar Commonwealth? If so, do you think it will happen in the lifetime of the human race?

(If it hasn't already happened somewhere out there)

EDIT: After all, to have such a thing would require some form of Interstellar travel capabilities.

Capt'n Midnight

Rubecula wrote: »

Do you think that in time there will be a sort of Interstellar Commonwealth?

Rubecula

Capt'n, that is not only true but bloody funny.

FreudianSlippers

Rubecula wrote: »

3. Space warp, where the space around us is 'warped' to allow travel to distant places.

IIRC, the most likely to be possible based on our current understanding of physics is the concept of "warp" technology. Somehow we make the space in front of the vehicle compacted and the space behind the vehicle expanded. Theoretically the vehicle does not move, but the space around the vehicle moves at (or possibly faster than) the speed of light. I can't exactly remember, but there was some science put forward to explain how this fit into modern-day mathematics and physics.

corpo3030

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive

I think this is what you mean?

ThunderCat

Interesting concepts a lot of you have put forward, and of course travelling to other star systems in search of life/intelligent life is what we as humans ultimately strive to achieve but given the sheer vastness of the Universe I often wonder is the Universe designed in such a way that star to star travel is just not possible. The distances involved are mind boggling even if we are ever able to encorporate light speed into a craft, not to mention the technology involved to actually manufacture such a craft and incorporate such a technology. Is such a thing beyond us? Quite possibly it is. I'm not sure if we could ever evolve to such a level. Of course it's the fact that there is so much we as humans don't understand and are yet to discover that gives us hope but what we are talking about here almost certainly wont be remotely possible in our own lifetimes I feel.

Technology as it stands, logistics aside, would be able to get us to the nearest star in tens of thousands of years so I suppose based on the OP's post, Generation crafts are possibly our best bet but I cant see them working as the hunger for answers and for discovery would soon die out after a few generations and the many many generations that follow would never understand the quest at hand as they would never have lived on Earth and will never reach the destination in their lifetimes either. When you finally get to the generation who will experience entering the solar sytem of the nearest star, what exactly will it mean to them - very little im sure having only ever lived their existance on a craft and knowing nothing of living as a human on Earth.

shizz

ThunderCat wrote: »

Technology as it stands, logistics aside, would be able to get us to the nearest star in tens of thousands of years so I suppose based on the OP's post, Generation crafts are possibly our best bet but I cant see them working as the hunger for answers and for discovery would soon die out after a few generations and the many many generations that follow would never understand the quest at hand as they would never have lived on Earth and will never reach the destination in their lifetimes either. When you finally get to the generation who will experience entering the solar sytem of the nearest star, what exactly will it mean to them - very little im sure having only ever lived their existance on a craft and knowing nothing of living as a human on Earth.

This is certainly a concept to consider if we are just going for the lulz. The fact is that the likely scenario for this is that our solar system is in jeopardy and we need to relocate to another system and find a habitable planet. In that case why would it matter? It would be for the continuation of the species.