Tropical Storm OPHELIA

sdanseo

Another something to follow in the Atlantic

000
WTNT31 KNHC 210250
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...12.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

NONE


NEXT ADVISORY

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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Source www.nhc.noaa.gov

I love Joan Burton

Bástard, well thats my barbie plans gone, im raging had a great line practiced and all: throw another shrimp on the barbie, mate! well balls

Weylin

September 21, 2011 – MIAMI - Tropical Storm Ophelia has strengthened as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday. In its 11 a.m. update, the hurricane center said Ophelia’s maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph. The storm was about 1,245 miles east of the Leeward Island and moving west at 16 mph. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, forecasters said, and Ophelia was expected to lose some strength during the next 48 hours. [Update 5:10 a.m. ET] Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed over the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said early Wednesday. At 5 a.m. ET, Ophelia had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was about 1,370 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The storm was moving west at near 13 mph. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said. -CNN



Few things about this hurricane system have been typical even if the number of category 5 hurricanes has been few and far between. Asia has been hammered by a string of cyclones that have rarely missed inland areas even in the midst of one of the wettest monsoon seasons on record. Storms in the Atlantic have likewise been mercurial, holding hurricane-watchers in suspense, even though most have steered clear of the U.S. mainland. Last night, a low-pressure system over the Atlantic morphed into the full-blown Tropical Storm Ophelia despite earlier forecasts by weather watchers that the system had little chance of intensification. –
Update 10:58 a.m. ET] Tropical Storm Ophelia has strengthened as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

In its 11 a.m. update, the hurricane center said Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph. The storm was about 1,245 miles east of the Leeward Island and moving west at 16 mph.

No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, forecasters said, and Ophelia was expected to lose some strength during the next 48 hours.

[Update 5:10 a.m. ET] Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed over the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said early Wednesday.

At 5 a.m. ET, Ophelia had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was about 1,370 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The storm was moving west at near 13 mph.

Gradual strengthening is expected over the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said.

gbee

I've a daughter named Ophelia, she's really tempestuous.

dsmythy

Looks like being a pretty weak storm. Not much potential for now.

bb1234567

is this supposed to hit ireland?

gbee

bb1234567 wrote: »

is this supposed to hit ireland?

It's only starting, but one way or another, the remnants will drop a little more rain and give a little extra puff to the wind.

Will this one be special? Five days more to have an idea ~ then another seven to ten days.

An above post says it won't be special..

dsmythy

Reduced to a tropical depression before it even reached the Caribbean. It's remnants should track north towards Bermuda. Moderate chance of a recharge on the way.

snowstreams

Looks like ophelia is back and looking a lot stronger this time.

dsmythy

She's a fighter alright. Might even make it to Cat 1.

Mountainsandh

I haven't a clue and the site may be inaccurate or over dramatic, but I like to check this every so often ... and Philippe seems to be catching up nicely (don't know about intensity !) on distance to Ophelia.
Now question is : could Philippe and Ophelia, hem... merge ? :D Does that happen sometimes ?

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php?area=eu

dsmythy

Phillippe and Ophelia won't be getting it on by the looks of things. She is more interested in Bermuda and Newfoundland. Could be another blowing for far eastern Canada.

Sponge Bob

Now Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia and on her way here Wednesday next as an extratrop.

Models have not picked this up yet, perhaps the 00z will.

dsmythy

Is that not the remains moving off Canada on the 18z?

uncle_sam_ie

Little Bermuda is dodging hurricane bullets left and right this season. There must be a lot of praying going over there. :eek:

dsmythy

Against all odds Ophelia has become a Category 3 hurricane.

GFS has her energy remains eventually pass over Ireland on Wednesday after combining with another low pressure system. Other models seem to have her battered away by high pressure.

gbee

For a storm that was considered dormant, what?

Sponge Bob

Vedur.is shows a slobbery wet mess of Ophelia coming in over Ireland on Wednesday Night.



Just as the Dodder level finally drops in Dublin, what

Mayo Exile

Now a category 4 according to the NHC. Looks impressive on this image (10pm).



Thermal IR image from 1am. TS Philippe to the southeast.

Sponge Bob

NHC says.

"THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER THE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES."

Vedur.is shows the following ECMWF forecast.

Tuesday 1800 Hours



Wednesday 1800 Hours ( misses us in this model run ...thankfully) but that can change.



GFS is broadly in agreement. UKMO ( is that Hirlam) is not projecting weds yet, here is tues night.

Sponge Bob

The overall cloud formation is about twice the size of the island of Ireland.

John.Icy

Impressive images from the Satelite......pity it looks like being too far North for us Storm lovers.

EDIT: http://www.wdsu.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

Similar path to Katia according to this, models seems bullish on it's positioning, interesting to see where it ends up.

dsmythy

Should bring a wet and windy Wednesday. Looks further north than Katia was. Behind it some cool northwesterlies. Depending on what models you believe either a ridge will come up over us or other lows will try fit into the gap instead. The latter I'd imagine.

Mountainsandh

There's an orange line that has it going straight for Northern Ireland ? Googled the initials (HWRF) and it says it's a computer generated type of tracking, is that of any value here ?
http://www.wdsu.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

edit : ... am googling and learning since don't have a clue about weather, but interested, and found this pic to somewhat answer my own question. Looks like it's not brilliantly reliable, about 48% accuracy up to 96 hours ? Am I reading this right ?

dsmythy

Mountainsandh wrote: »

There's an orange line that has it going straight for Northern Ireland ? Googled the initials (HWRF) and it says it's a computer generated type of tracking, is that of any value here ?
http://www.wdsu.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

edit : ... am googling and learning since don't have a clue about weather, but interested, and found this pic to somewhat answer my own question. Looks like it's not brilliantly reliable, about 48% accuracy up to 96 hours ? Am I reading this right ?

I'm not sure if it's accuracy, seems to be it's comparison to something else. Not sure though, someone else will hopefully be able to answer that. Models which are designed for tropical storm tracks tend to lose their value as the system loses it's tropical characteristics.

dsmythy

Potential for a very windy day in Denmark/South Sweden on Friday or so with a tightening of the isobars associated with ex-Ophelia.

Cantona's Collars

dsmythy wrote: »

Potential for a very windy day in Denmark/South Sweden on Friday or so with a tightening of the isobars associated with ex-Ophelia.

Just as The Star reports Ireland will get hit by "Hurricane Ophelia",Katia was a non-event for us in the South East and looks like Ophelia will be the same.

dsmythy

zerks wrote: »

Just as The Star reports Ireland will get hit by "Hurricane Ophelia",Katia was a non-event for us in the South East and looks like Ophelia will be the same.

Which is why I mentioned Denmark and left us out of it. Nice cold plunge for Scandinavia too.