Winter Charts 2011/2012

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

Weathercheck, are you ok?
Post if you are ok.


:P

I'm more concerned about the lack of a darkman thread after two runs with cold at the end of them!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Call the Guards !!!! We must look in on our neighbours at their time of need

Speak Now

thetonynator wrote: »

A week of easterlies before christmas last year gave me 1.0cm snow . . .actually only 0.5cm of that came from an easterly the other 0.5cm came from a northerly!

I'll take my chances with the northerly for now! The easterly cold is too far away at the moment to be of any use, wait til it gets to scandi properly.

That wasn't a typical easterly IMO, the late Nov/early Dec surely delivered for you. That one before xmas was very unusual alright, PV came south and cold digged in over us while a low pressure south of delivered streamer after streamer down the east coast. First time i ever saw a set up like that. Northerlys usually break my heart staying up lamp post watching all night while the radar shows the band fragmenting while it moves south

thetonynator

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

That wasn't a typical easterly IMO, the late Nov/early Dec surely delivered for you. That one before xmas was very unusual alright, PV came south and cold digged in over us while a low pressure south of delivered streamer after streamer down the east coast. First time i ever saw a set up like that. Northerlys usually break my heart staying up lamp post watching all night while the radar shows the band fragmenting while it moves south

The other one delivered all right, but the coldest week in the last 50 years didn't.

pad199207

thetonynator wrote: »

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

That wasn't a typical easterly IMO, the late Nov/early Dec surely delivered for you. That one before xmas was very unusual alright, PV came south and cold digged in over us while a low pressure south of delivered streamer after streamer down the east coast. First time i ever saw a set up like that. Northerlys usually break my heart staying up lamp post watching all night while the radar shows the band fragmenting while it moves south

The other one delivered all right, but the coldest week in the last 50 years didn't.

I had around 10 inches of snow here last Xmas morning with a low of -16.1c at 06.55

only one

I just want a a lash of snow to hit the south east like 63 winter! From what I read today about the winter back then cork and Waterford got a great dumping of snow

thetonynator

pad199207 wrote: »

I had around 10 inches of snow here last Xmas morning with a low of -16.1c at 06.55

Had a low of -16.7, but only 1 cm of snow.

pad199207

thetonynator wrote: »

pad199207 wrote: »

I had around 10 inches of snow here last Xmas morning with a low of -16.1c at 06.55

Had a low of -16.7, but only 1 cm of snow.

Such a coincidence that Xmas morning was the coldest last dec . I don't think it will be this year

Calibos

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

That wasn't a typical easterly IMO, the late Nov/early Dec surely delivered for you. That one before xmas was very unusual alright, PV came south and cold digged in over us while a low pressure south of delivered streamer after streamer down the east coast. First time i ever saw a set up like that. Northerlys usually break my heart staying up lamp post watching all night while the radar shows the band fragmenting while it moves south

It didn't deliver for everyone on the east coast.



Giant Streamer constantly replenished from Wales to my North and the Eye of the depression constantly rotating over Wicklow/Arklow/Gorey to my south

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Calibos wrote: »

It didn't deliver for everyone on the east coast.



Giant Streamer constantly replenished from Wales to my North and the Eye of the depression constantly rotating over Wicklow/Arklow/Gorey to my south

That pic cracks me up every time !!! :pac:

pad199207

Kildare always does very well in Easterly streamers:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pad199207 wrote: »

Kildare always does very well in Easterly streamers:D

I agree cause im in Sallins :pac:

MiNdGaM3

The 06z 850hPa ensemble mean is now below 0C from the 26th until the end of the run

john mayo 10

nice chart only a week away too

john mayo 10

thetonynator

john mayo 10 wrote: »

Only brings 850 uppers of 0 to -2.

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

Windy at 144hrs in the GEM.

00z GEM has put this storm north, but strongest winds still over land.



Edit : linked it by accident, meant to upload it sorry!

Su Campu

thetonynator wrote: »

00z GEM has put this storm north, but strongest winds still over land.

That's Storm Carmen territory right there.

thetonynator

Su Campu wrote: »

That's Storm Carmen territory right there.

Yeah. GFS operational has it further north but the control run is going around the same as the GEM.

New run on the way now though!

dsmythy

thetonynator wrote: »

Yeah. GFS operational has it further north but the control run is going around the same as the GEM.

New run on the way now though!

A question I had been pondering. What's the control and operational charts?

maquiladora

dsmythy wrote: »

thetonynator wrote: »

Yeah. GFS operational has it further north but the control run is going around the same as the GEM.

New run on the way now though!

A question I had been pondering. What's the control and operational charts?

The control starts off with the same initial data as the operational but it is run at a lower resolution, the same resolution as the 20 ensemble runs which each have slightly tweaked initial data.

oisingeogho

how are they looking tonight?
none of the websites will load for me.

thetonynator

oisingeogho wrote: »

how are they looking tonight?
none of the websites will load for me.

12Z GFS operational is showing the euro high the whole way out into FI, with us stuck in westerlies and sw lies, with a half decent low passing to our north at 144hrs.
Control run shows much the same with low after low passing to the north of us, and the euro high firmly in place.

ECMWF has the euro high moving out a bit west, so we'd be in a swly flow, before it moves over central europe again.


GEM has a low to our near north at 132 hrs, but it doesn't strengthen properly until after it passes scotland, wouldn't be anything exceptional by whats there. Only out to 144hrs.

UKMO has the euro high firmly in place, with the low mentioned above way to the north.

thetonynator

18Z GFS has a brief N'ly from 156 hrs, no 850's lower than -4, hill sleet and snow at best.

Elmo5

Jet stream is just not cooperating

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Yeah !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Tom Cruises Left Nut

GFS going for a greenland high ?

Deep Easterly

The ECMWF Ensemble mean continues to show a tend towards cooler zonal type conditions towards the month's end:

850 hPa temp forecast for 216hrs:



If that does play out anything like is forecast and considering the time of year, could see plenty of heavy, possibly thundery showers with hail. The actual deterministic run is a little bit more extreme and shows the potential for some hill snow too.

Redsunset

t¦nt¦n GFS going for a greenland high ?

---

To get blocking you need heights to transfer like shown to shut off the Atlantic.
Or a Scandi linking up




Unfortunately it not going to happen.