Winter Charts 2011/2012

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I might be wrong but the ensembles take the highest and lowest possible outcomes and the black line is the mean , i might be picking this up incorrectly.

I meant the mean on this chart !

BEASTERLY

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I meant the mean on this chart !

The black line shows the the observed data. Which I think is wrongly showed going negative very quickly in the last couple of days in that chart, just a mistake, this can be seen by the bar chart which I posted. The red lines are the various forecast ensembles. Only one of which is going negative and is an outlier, the rest forecasting the AO to stay above average. The forecast mean is below average but don't take any heed of this as it just being skewed by the outlier. For the best indication for the most reliable forecast look at where most of the red lines are bunched.

Su Campu

These are the 500 hPa height anomalies for the next 15 days, showing negative anomalies to our north and positive to our south, keeping the NAO positive all the way. So persistent westerlies in that setup.

This is for Dec 21st.

Speak Now

Stormy outlook :eek:

pistolpetes11

No update on AO and NAO today ?

pistolpetes11

Well seems I have no AO or NAO charts to put up today il throw this in form NW



I have looked at today's GFS charts and I have to say I am surprised by what I see. It appears that the elongation of the vortex from the Atlantic to Pacific is now continuing to such an extent that a split seems to be occurring up to the 70 hPa level. This in my opinion will be due to local upwelling wave activity from the troposphere into the stratosphere but I am surprised to see this with a strong vortex scenario.
It is still early days and I have seen these early splits come and go in the forecasts but worth mentioning nonetheless.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Awh Yeahhhhhhhh :pac:

leahyl

t|nt|n wrote: »

Awh Yeahhhhhhhh :pac:

If only!:pac:

pistolpetes11

After today update its not looking so great , heading downward then jumps back up again on the AO

iRooter

Snowing in leitrim, not sticking.. to lazy to upload pic, maybe later

popflop

iRooter wrote: »

Snowing in leitrim, not sticking.. to lazy to upload pic, maybe later

Wrong thread buddy.

maquiladora

Caff Caff

maquiladora wrote: »

Tuesday!! Lamb of Jayzis! Where's me wellies?!!
:eek:

maquiladora

Caff Caff wrote: »

Tuesday!! Lamb of Jayzis! Where's me wellies?!!
:eek:

I think yer wellies would be the least of your worries if that happened!

Don't worry though, that ^^, won't happen. This is the fantasy charts thread!

Caff Caff

maquiladora wrote: »

I think yer wellies would be the least of your worries if that happened!

Don't worry though, that ^^, won't happen. This is the fantasy charts thread!

But it's 4days out! Not ABSOLUTE fantasy...surely

maquiladora

Caff Caff wrote: »

But it's 4days out! Not ABSOLUTE fantasy...surely

It's only from a GFS ensemble member, it's an extreme variation of the operational output.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

Caff Caff wrote: »

Tuesday!! Lamb of Jayzis! Where's me wellies?!!
:eek:

I think yer wellies would be the least of your worries if that happened!

Don't worry though, that ^^, won't happen. This is the fantasy charts thread!

It's for Tuesday though - not that far off!

maquiladora

hawkwing

maquiladora wrote: »

Have ye no homes to go to says the barman,ahm no not anymore :eek:

only one

From that pic it looks like the south will be hit nicely! I think anyway I'm no pro lol. And Im sure I read something back along that snow might be with this as well?

maquiladora

(edit : didn't permalink, sorry!)

John.Icy

Now...thats a storm

Yahew

Storm is so tightly packed it is impossible to see Ireland and Britain.

nacho libre

Yahew wrote: »

Storm is so tightly packed it is impossible to see Ireland and Britain.

It will be a fairly intense low, but not quite as deep as that in all likelihood. What he posted there was the worst case scenario, which only one member of the gfs ens members was going for, most have it pegged at between 935-945 mph

garyha

maquiladora wrote: »

Those who are about to die, we salute you...

aurora 527

maquiladora wrote: »

Those who are about to die, we salute you...





[ There is no way I believe it will be that bad. ]

That really made me laugh.. thanks..:D

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

Those who are about to die, we salute you...





[ There is no way I believe it will be that bad. ]

It's even funnier now seeing as you only copied the link! :P

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

It's even funnier now seeing as you only copied the link! :P

:pac: Thats pretty hilarious alright.

Gonzo

am I the only one thats fed up of these northwesterly wind/rain storms... all i want is calm conditions with loads of easterly snow pounding the east coast with no isle of man shadows (asking for almost the impossible). Ive had enough wind over past 4 months to last a lifetime.

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

:pac: Thats pretty hilarious alright.

The slack NW flow is a real killer all right. :P