Winter Charts 2011/2012

Harps

The GFS Operational Run is still mostly on its own in building this high, odd that its consistently well above the ensembles over the past couple of days. Most likely result will probably be continued zonality

Conor30

The forum is so quiet!!!

So much for the gulf stream changing course, the sun being 'dead' and a mini ice age coming! LOLOLOL It'll probably go down as being a very average, if not mild, winter!

Musicman2000

Conor30 wrote: »

The forum is so quiet!!!

So much for the gulf stream changing course, the sun being 'dead' and a mini ice age coming! LOLOLOL It'll probably go down as being a very average, if not mild, winter!

Its early days yet Conor, But a mini ice age, I agree with you pure rubbish, Things could start to get very intertesting come mid January to many people saying winter is finished anyone that says that is talking pure rubbish, and another update from James Madden I dont know what models he is reading:rolleyes:

Sunday 18th December 2011
White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow
After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.
Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.
As I stated in my 4th December update
I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings.
A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.
The following MSN article from the 25th Novemberalso stated
What is The Big Question?
Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February.
I also made a definition of what a white Christmas officially consists of, as snow showers could literally be possible anywhere within the UK, although I have emphasised that the regions of Scotland and Northern England are the most likely to see any notable accumulations on the actual day.
All of the following statements still stand and were made before any other professional meteorologists or weather organisations, who are still being noncommittal on the outcome at this late stage, and as they will continue to do so, until a few days before.
May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and thank you all for reading my forecasts and your continued support.
Don't forget to enter our free white Christmas competition to win yourself a free scientific weather station/junior weather station kit.

Caff Caff

Conor30 wrote: »

The forum is so quiet!!!

So much for the gulf stream changing course, the sun being 'dead' and a mini ice age coming! LOLOLOL It'll probably go down as being a very average, if not mild, winter!

Based on??... I expect that mild to have its day just after new years and perhaps a return to colder conditions. The mild is somewhat unsusual for Jan which is generally the coldest month of winter. we've two and a half months of the meteorological winter left so i wouldn't write it off just yet. patience

jimmynippy

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Its early days yet Conor, But a mini ice age, I agree with you pure rubbish, Things could start to get very intertesting come mid January to many people saying winter is finished anyone that says that is talking pure rubbish, and another update from James Madden I dont know what models he is reading:rolleyes:

Sunday 18th December 2011
White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow
After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.
Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.
As I stated in my 4th December update
I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings.
A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.
The following MSN article from the 25th Novemberalso stated
What is The Big Question?
Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February.
I also made a definition of what a white Christmas officially consists of, as snow showers could literally be possible anywhere within the UK, although I have emphasised that the regions of Scotland and Northern England are the most likely to see any notable accumulations on the actual day.
All of the following statements still stand and were made before any other professional meteorologists or weather organisations, who are still being noncommittal on the outcome at this late stage, and as they will continue to do so, until a few days before.
May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and thank you all for reading my forecasts and your continued support.
Don't forget to enter our free white Christmas competition to win yourself a free scientific weather station/junior weather station kit.

He must be reading the charts upside down or through a mirror

maw368

Thought I'd post a picture from last winter. Because this is a fantasy chart I am posting what I want a repeat of this year.

That is my walking stick fully extended over a metre long. I was walking the mountain between Merthyr Tydfil and Brecon Beacons and these drifts were every few metres. My poor boxer dog wasn't very pleased having his nipples constantly in the snow.

alfa beta

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Sunday 18th December 2011
White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow
After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.
Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.

wow - just wow, widepsread snowfall (including the south of the uk) over the next 10 days - James, dear boy, you've just outdone yourself...

gally74

Any hope at all in f I land? I could use some, even some nice dry frosty weather

Su Campu

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Its early days yet Conor, But a mini ice age, I agree with you pure rubbish, Things could start to get very intertesting come mid January to many people saying winter is finished anyone that says that is talking pure rubbish, and another update from James Madden I dont know what models he is reading:rolleyes:

Sunday 18th December 2011
White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow
After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.
Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.
As I stated in my 4th December update
I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings.
A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.
The following MSN article from the 25th Novemberalso stated
What is The Big Question?
Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February.
I also made a definition of what a white Christmas officially consists of, as snow showers could literally be possible anywhere within the UK, although I have emphasised that the regions of Scotland and Northern England are the most likely to see any notable accumulations on the actual day.
All of the following statements still stand and were made before any other professional meteorologists or weather organisations, who are still being noncommittal on the outcome at this late stage, and as they will continue to do so, until a few days before.
May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and thank you all for reading my forecasts and your continued support.
Don't forget to enter our free white Christmas competition to win yourself a free scientific weather station/junior weather station kit.

Eh sorry, is this from this year or last year? He can't possibly be talking about Xmas 2011....can he? :eek:

Mr Madden, you have officially lost it.

derekon

Su Campu wrote: »

Eh sorry, is this from this year or last year? He can't possibly be talking about Xmas 2011....can he? :eek:

Mr Madden, you have officially lost it.

Would you believe James Madden is speaking about this Christmas? I think he is deluded...................:D

D

Deep Easterly

The very intelligent Bill Hicks gives his opinion on some trash film.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrTifComO7U

His advice could apply in this case as well I think.

fizzycyst

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The very intelligent Bill Hicks gives his opinion on some trash film.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrTifComO7U

His advice could apply in this case as well I think.

My favourite comedian of all time, class act.

dsmythy

Su Campu wrote: »

Eh sorry, is this from this year or last year? He can't possibly be talking about Xmas 2011....can he? :eek:

Mr Madden, you have officially lost it.

Don't worry he'll just say it's delayed and keep saying that until it happens

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

If that high becomes a permanent fixture then this forecast posted on the winter 2011-12 thread will turn out to be very accurate :mad:

Above posted November 2nd:
Who made this forecast? With the high becoming stationary over Europe this forecast will be very accurate I think.
(In the winters of 88-9, 91-2 and 97-8 HP was more or less stationary over Europe for weeks on end.)

Su Campu

A nice snowy 24 hour period showing up for the western half of the country on the 5th.

pistolpetes11

Hi Su ,


Would you say that has something to do with strat warming as in this chart , very cool temps over us at 10Hpa levels, (how high is that ?)

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Above posted November 2nd:
Who made this forecast? With the high becoming stationary over Europe this forecast will be very accurate I think.
(In the winters of 88-9, 91-2 and 97-8 HP was more or less stationary over Europe for weeks on end.)

Its says for Uk and Ireland , Less snowfall than last year , even give me half of what we got last year and I would be a happy boy

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Hi Su ,


Would you say that has something to do with strat warming as in this chart , very cool temps over us at 10Hpa levels, (how high is that ?)

At that point there seems to be the start of a split vortex, but the actual conditions on the ground here then will just a cold airmass from the northwest, like we had last week. It does look to be more promising a few days later though, with the
vortex split over Greenland.

The 10 hPa level is around 27-28 km over the Pole at the moment.

maquiladora

ECM presents The Phantom Menace...

WolfeIRE

GFS

Nabber

Brewing up a storm

Kippure

The first signs. Split polar vortex. A Beast of some sort heading into europe.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

WolfeIRE

Kippure wrote: »

The first signs. Split polar vortex. A Beast of some sort heading into europe.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

An easterly/ne will do just nice after that cold becomes entrenched over Europe and Scandanavia

Simon Keeling update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wHZE_U_zn8

Kippure

WolfeIRE wrote: »

An easterly/ne will do just nice after that cold becomes entrenched over Europe and Scandanavia

Simon Keeling update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wHZE_U_zn8

Now is the time to be looking at the signs in FI. Yes cold in mainland europe will do us nicely. I think this is the models trying to include a strat warming in the runs. Many more outcomes over the christmas period. Seems we are heading some where Negetive at last....

I,d say there will be spectacular 18z over the christmas that will have this forum in meltdown. lol

TheMilkyPirate

Kippure wrote: »

Now is the time to be looking at the signs in FI. Yes cold in mainland europe will do us nicely. I think this is the models trying to include a strat warming in the runs. Many more outcomes over the christmas period. Seems we are heading some where Negetive at last....

I,d say there will be spectacular 18z over the christmas that will have this forum in meltdown. lol

Sher it wouldn't be christmas without one!

200motels

Happy Christman everyone.

jimmynippy

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-324.png?6

jimmynippy

jimmynippy wrote: »

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-324.png?6

There are a few interesting ensembles with pressure building in the mid atlantic.

Trogdor

Something to keep the hopes up

Trotter

Following the apparently general rule that FI charts never happen, I'll have my rain jacket ready for the 9th

Has an FI chart worked out to happen in Real Island with any accuracy in the recent past out of curiosity?