The Official After Hours Presidential Election Thread **POLL RESET 23/10**

K-9

Morlar wrote: »

I know you would really really really like to, but I wouldn't rule out Martin McGuinness just yet. 'Many's the slip twixt cup and lip' and all that.

I predict Michael D will slip back a few points and Gallagher will also drop down a bit more once people look at the substance behind them and all the frenetic media scrutiny of Norris and McGuinness dies down a bit more.

Norris does seem to be gone, the chances of him revealing the exact amount in disability funds and revealing the letters would be his only hope at this stage I think. However he is not stupid, and there has to be a good reason why he has not revealed the letters up to now.

Mitchell & FG are rightly rewarded for the pure negativity and general slyness. Mitchell is not even getting FG voters support which says a lot. I think from here on in Mitchell will stop defining his proposed presidency in terms of his anti-McGuinness-ness and may claw back slightly but not enough. Davis and Dana were never that likely. Unless one of them comes out as a lesbian to pickup on some of those 'first non heterosexual President of Ireland' buzz voters they are gone too.

McGuinness needs to be topping the poll to stand a chance of getting elected. Even then I can't see him getting many Norris or Mitchell transfers and I'd say Davis and Dana's transfers will go everywhere. Higgins gathers transfers from everybody and Gallagher is doing well as well. It depends on if Gallagher can keep his support on whether McGuinness will finish second or third, both would be a respectable performance.

Kasabian

I think we should just go to a Monarchy, might be easier.
Anyone got a claim to the hill of Tara?

squod

Kasabian wrote: »

I think we should just go to a Monarchy, might be easier.
Anyone got a claim to the hill of Tara?

Bagsy first.

Kasabian

squod wrote: »

Bagsy first.

Shotgun!!

sensibleken

squod wrote: »

Bagsy first.

Kasabian wrote: »

Shotgun!!

Motherfu......!


whats that left me with. brehon? beats being king of leinster, turncoat ****!

Morlar

K-9 wrote: »

McGuinness needs to be topping the poll to stand a chance of getting elected. Even then I can't see him getting many Norris or Mitchell transfers and I'd say Davis and Dana's transfers will go everywhere. Higgins gathers transfers from everybody and Gallagher is doing well as well. It depends on if Gallagher can keep his support on whether McGuinness will finish second or third, both would be a respectable performance.

For McGuinness I'd predict either a narrow victory or 2nd place (no-cigar).

Higgins has basically surfed through this campaign with zero scrutiny of any sort due to FG negativity and the ongoing soap opera drama that has been the distraction of the Norris sideshow.

I wonder how many Higgins voters are aware of his '****' outburst and some of his other anti-american rantings ?

sensibleken

Morlar wrote: »

For McGuinness I'd predict either a narrow victory or 2nd place (no-cigar).

Higgins has basically surfed through this campaign with zero scrutiny of any sort due to FG negativity and the ongoing soap opera drama that has been the distraction of the Norris sideshow.

I wonder how many Higgins voters are aware of his '****' outburst and some of his other anti-american rantings ?

wasnt that when he called a wanker a wanker. that was awesome!

K-9

Morlar wrote: »

For McGuinness I'd predict either a narrow victory or 2nd place (no-cigar).

Higgins has basically surfed through this campaign with zero scrutiny of any sort due to FG negativity and the ongoing soap opera drama that has been the distraction of the Norris sideshow.

I wonder how many Higgins voters are aware of his '****' outburst and some of his other anti-american rantings ?

Don't think it would do him any major damage, indeed it might go down well as showing his human side. Anti American is a stupid term anyway, he called a certain Newstalk American journalist a wanker and criticised American policies, nothing wrong with that.

McGuinness will do well to get 25% first preferences and fall away with transfers. He's the least liked candidate by a mile, hence poor transfers.

Morlar

K-9 wrote: »

McGuinness will do well to get 25% first preferences and fall away with transfers. He's the least liked candidate by a mile, hence poor transfers.

From Today's www.independent.ie

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/presidential-election/sinn-fein-now-second-most-popular-political-party-2899583.html

By Independent.ie reporters

Friday October 07 2011

Sinn Fein is now more popular amongst voters than the Labour Party or Fianna Fail, according to a new opinion poll.

The Ipsos/MRBI survey was conducted for the Irish Times and shows that the party's support is now in line with that of its presidential candidate Martin McGuinness.

Fine Gael remains the most popular political party at 35% , down 3% since July. However, this support is not transferring to its candidate Gay Mitchell, who received just 9% support for his presidential bid.

Sinn Fein is on 18%, which is almost double the support they received in February's election. Mr McGuinness received 19% support in the same poll.

Lord TSC

Tbh, I think that's probably more down to how bad FF and Labour have been doing, rather than how well MMG is :P

Sam Vimes

Dionysus wrote: »

For "just another member" of the British Commonwealth - or "Commonwealth of Nations" as they're now dressing it up as since the collapse of the British Empire - it's fairly strange indeed that the British head of state is the only person who is, or can be, head of it. Given this reality, your comparison with Ireland's membership of the EU and UN is disingenuous.

The British Commonwealth is patently about Britain trying to cling on to a powerbase which it created through the British Empire; without the British Empire the British Commonwealth wouldn't exist. Fact. In its origin and present incarnation it is merely about British people of a more nationalistic bent deluding themselves that Britain is still a great world power. Embarrassing stuff altogether. As has been said already, it offers nothing to Ireland.

If you say so. The fact remains that being in the Commonwealth wouldn't make us any less independent and wanting Ireland to be in it does not make one a unionist

K-9

Morlar wrote: »

From Today's www.independent.ie

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/presidential-election/sinn-fein-now-second-most-popular-political-party-2899583.html

That's got nothing to do with what I said. McGuinness is getting the SF vote from that poll and probably some others.

Gallagher and Higgins are cleaning up the 26% or so FG'ers that wont vote Mitchell. It's basic common sense politics, not wishful thinking.

Morlar

K-9 wrote: »

That's got nothing to do with what I said. McGuinness is getting the SF vote from that poll and probably some others.

Gallagher and Higgins are cleaning up the 26% or so FG'ers that wont vote Mitchell. It's basic common sense politics, not wishful thinking.

You say McGuinness is 'the least liked candidate by a mile', the polls I have seen (including today) do not appear to support that. So I am not sure which of us is doing the wishful thinking here.

FetchTheGin

stonetrower wrote: »

Im 63 and I enjoy singing. I dont need a drink to sing Kevin Barry. I am well educated. I have not got a rebellious streak. I dont know what a fat frog is. I am not a member of any political party. I am not lower working class. I do not feel that the world owes me a life. I do not need to emigrate. However, having read your post I may just vote for Martin Mc Guinness. Thanks for helping me to decide.

I did not realise that there was an upper class, champaign skinny frog swilling, God save the Queen singing, fascist political party in the republic of Ireland.
I wondered what the term West Brit meant and now I know thanks to you. :P

Excellent post.

K-9

Morlar wrote: »

You say McGuinness is 'the least liked candidate by a mile', the polls I have seen (including today) do not appear to support that. So I am not sure which of us is doing the wishful thinking here.

It's about transfers. McGuiness just gets his party following support and a few others, basically people who'd vote for him anyway, to be expected. This is a Presidential election so likeability is a major factor and probably the deciding one with no clear leader.

The poll yesterday:

http://photos5.pix.ie/37/87/378797B82A1040B4B80410AB91376DF5-0000333355-0002575270-00800L-5A9AC0E6322745A1AA6907F4DB6CD6AC.png

And the candidate people would least like to see as President:

http://photos2.pix.ie/4E/EF/4EEFEB57DEEC4886A1B958834197A3F6-0000333355-0002575264-00800L-61A919F9DF7043FAAF783572998360B8.png

Hence why Gallagher and Higgins are doing well when people are asked about transfers and McGuinness poorly.

Even if he tops the poll, he'll fall away quickly as Higgins and Gallagher pick up transfers right, left and centre.

Lord TSC

Hadn't actually seen that poll of who people don't want to be president. Interesting.

I wonder...if the decision is made closer the time to reset the above poll, should be people be given, for example, three votes to spend on who their top three would be, in a bid to see what way transfers would work. Would MMG retain such a large overall percentage? Would Norris?

I will say that I'm just about ready to shift my vote over from Norris to Higgins. I always said I was voting Norris cause I thought he was the best bet to block MMG, and if it now is looking like Higgins has overtaken Norris, then I'm happy. Ultimatly it will be who is the favoirte on the day though...

cowzerp

Sam Vimes wrote: »

If you say so. The fact remains that being in the Commonwealth wouldn't make us any less independent and wanting Ireland to be in it does not make one a unionist

David Norris said his Mother was an Irish Unionist, His Da as we know is English and both are fine, so the fact he also has said he'd like to see Ireland been part of the Commonwealth points to him been a Unionist or a supporter of the Union

Did you see the interview where on his locker there was the picture of the King and Queen of Britain? it's clear he is a Royalist in fairness, Or maybe it's just his love of Queens!

dvpower

Morlar wrote: »

You say McGuinness is 'the least liked candidate by a mile', the polls I have seen (including today) do not appear to support that.

I think he's been described as the marmite candidate - people tend to either love him or hate him, which is why he's going to have a problem with transfers.

dvpower

cowzerp wrote: »

Or maybe it's just his love of Queens!

Why, oh why, oh why?:mad:

efb

Sure SF are pro gay marriage and march at pride so maybe I'll give them a pref, but alas they're not fielding a candidate.

Morlar

dvpower wrote: »

I think he's been described as the marmite candidate - people tend to either love him or hate him

I think you mean the marmalite candidate

Even so not 'the least liked' by a wide margin.

cowzerp

dvpower wrote: »

Why, oh why, oh why?:D

That is called Humour, i'm certainly not Homophobic and don't care what people do in there own bedrooms-i fixed your comment on it for u.

FetchTheGin

K-9

Morlar wrote: »

Even so not 'the least liked' by a wide margin.

Despite what the poll says! :eek:

Getting your own party supporters support is a minimum, obviously they don't hate McGuinness or I should hope not!

Mitchell is just meh, even his own supporters don't like him but he doesn't attract strong opposition either. McGuinness by a distance does, then Norris and Dana do.

Higgins will attract transfers from everywhere, McGuinness will not. The only people who hate Higgins are people who hate his "looney left" caricature and might be a bit worried that he's Anti American. Thankfully, there aren't too many of those!

Bergkamp 10

I've got two questions:

1. Firstly was the decision to hold this election on a thursday, another planned attempt by FG/Labour to stop young people voting. Since their candidates are mostly attracting an older vote according to the polls.

This after Enda Kenny said in recent years we would never have one on a Thursday again. More lies from a serial liar.

2. Why wouldnt Norris votes transfer to McGuiness? Yes two completely different men, but many ordinary people I've spoke to have both high on their preferences and dont rate the FG or Labour candidates.

K-9

Bergkamp 10 wrote: »

2. Why wouldnt Norris votes transfer to McGuiness? Yes two completely different men, but many ordinary people I've spoke to have both high on their preferences and dont rate the FG or Labour candidates.

He'll get some obviously, you'll also have the antithesis to posters on here who think Norris is a Unionist or West Brit, they wont transfer to a SF candidate.

The way it's going Norris is becoming a bit of an irrelevance anyway.

So he might get some transfers from Dana, Davis and Norris but Higgins and Gallagher will also all do well and probably better. Mitchell he'll get nothing from.

McGuinness just isn't doing anywhere near as well for transfers in the polls as Higgins or Gallagher and that's what'll win the election.

Bergkamp 10

K-9 wrote: »

He'll get some obviously, you'll also have the antithesis to posters on here who think Norris is a Unionist or West Brit, they wont transfer to a SF candidate.

The way it's going Norris is becoming a bit of an irrelevance anyway.

So he might get some transfers from Dana, Davis and Norris but Higgins and Gallagher will also all do well and probably better. Mitchell he'll get nothing from.

McGuinness just isn't doing anywhere near as well for transfers in the polls as Higgins or Gallagher and that's what'll win the election.

I cant argue with that, although I do feel Higgins may not get as many transfers as people think.

I would be happy though if Sean Gallagher won, very happy.

dvpower

cowzerp wrote: »

That is called Humour, i'm certainly not Homophobic and don't care what people do in there own bedrooms-i fixed your comment on it for u.

Fair enough. I just find the double entendres tiresome to the point of being irritating at this stage.

All the humour has long since been sucked out* of it

*see what I did there

efb

FF are laughing the whole way to the bank with Seanie G...

how many councillors have asked me to remember him, I'll give him 3.

1.Higgins (up 1)
2. Norris (down 1)
3. Gallagher (same)
4.McGuinness (Why not)

Bannasidhe

Letter in the IT today raised some interesting questions:

Martin McGuinness’s bank statements suggest the public record remains incomplete. Either that, or he lives in the dark! No utility bills in six months? Furthermore, according to Harry McGee’s (Home News, October 5th), his earnings from Stormont and Westminster are paid in full to Mr McGuinness who then transfers the funds to Sinn Féin. If that is the case, through which bank account does Mr McGuinness conduct these transactions and when can we expect to see the relevant statements? Is this the account through which he pays his utility bills?

http://www.irishtimes.com/letters/

I did wonder when I saw that McG had given his bank statements if he had only one account (I, like many people, have 2 - current and cashsave) but didn't actually look at the statements in any detail. The writer of the letter quoted above obviously did - and has raised some interesting points.