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Will house prices drop next year?

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  • 04-10-2011 4:37pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 677 ✭✭✭


    Hi, I have been informed that I am in receipt of an inheritance, enough to buy a cheap 3 bed house in finglas or balbriggan from what I can tell from Daft. By the time probate etc gets done it may be this time next year before the funds get released.

    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-, can anybody shed some light on this for me? Much appreciated.


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,990 ✭✭✭JustAddWater


    CarMe wrote: »
    Hi, I have been informed that I am in receipt of an inheritance, enough to buy a cheap 3 bed house in finglas or balbriggan from what I can tell from Daft. By the time probate etc gets done it may be this time next year before the funds get released.

    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-, can anybody shed some light on this for me? Much appreciated.

    Being honest, I think it'd be very unlikely they will rise in any form. At best, they will stay level if the market has bottomed out by then but I doubt it

    More than likely they will drop, so you should get something much cheaper and maybe your price range then won't be limited to finglas or balbriggan


  • Registered Users Posts: 677 ✭✭✭CarMe


    CarMe wrote: »
    Hi, I have been informed that I am in receipt of an inheritance, enough to buy a cheap 3 bed house in finglas or balbriggan from what I can tell from Daft. By the time probate etc gets done it may be this time next year before the funds get released.

    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-, can anybody shed some light on this for me? Much appreciated.

    Being honest, I think it'd be very unlikely they will rise in any form. At best, they will stay level if the market has bottomed out by then but I doubt it

    More than likely they will drop, so you should get something much cheaper and maybe your price range then won't be limited to finglas or balbriggan
    Really appreciate the reply thank you. If I bought a house completely with no mortgage, would I have many extra costs, ie. House insurance etc? As I said I genuinely am clueless about buying, I've been renting for years but now have a baby and I'm eager to give her a home.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭leonidas83


    CarMe wrote: »
    Hi, I have been informed that I am in receipt of an inheritance, enough to buy a cheap 3 bed house in finglas or balbriggan from what I can tell from Daft. By the time probate etc gets done it may be this time next year before the funds get released.

    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-, can anybody shed some light on this for me? Much appreciated.


    No one really knows which way the market will go next year, you have to look at all the market and economic evidence this year and based on this it looks as if they will decline further although not at the pace they have been for the last few years.

    There is also a serious question over the eurozone at the moment which could end up having a major effect on the market.

    Were in choppy waters at the moment and it be wise to hold off but if your looking for a definitive answer there isnt one. No one really knows whats going to happen


  • Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭ravendude


    leonidas83 wrote: »
    No one really knows which way the market will go next year, you have to look at all the market and economic evidence this year and based on this it looks as if they will decline further although not at the pace they have been for the last few years.

    There is also a serious question over the eurozone at the moment which could end up having a major effect on the market.

    Were in choppy waters at the moment and it be wise to hold off but if your looking for a definitive answer there isnt one. No one really knows whats going to happen

    Price drops have been accelerating in recent months based on the only reliable figures (CSO) last month.

    While strictly speaking it is true that "no one really knows", there's hardly any indicators at all suggesting that prices will even stabilize, let alone rise.

    It's a pretty safe bet really that there will be further drops between now and then, and I'd say, quite likely that they will be significant


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭lastlaugh


    CarMe wrote: »
    Hi, I have been informed that I am in receipt of an inheritance, enough to buy a cheap 3 bed house in finglas or balbriggan from what I can tell from Daft. By the time probate etc gets done it may be this time next year before the funds get released.

    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-, can anybody shed some light on this for me? Much appreciated.

    You'll be in an excellent position next year to use that cash.

    There is NO WAY that house prices will rise.

    In fact, people will become increasingly desperate to sell, so if you have a wad of cash, you can call the the shots.

    You jammy git!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 677 ✭✭✭CarMe


    lastlaugh wrote: »
    CarMe wrote: »
    Hi, I have been informed that I am in receipt of an inheritance, enough to buy a cheap 3 bed house in finglas or balbriggan from what I can tell from Daft. By the time probate etc gets done it may be this time next year before the funds get released.

    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-, can anybody shed some light on this for me? Much appreciated.

    You'll be in an excellent position next year to use that cash.

    There is NO WAY that house prices will rise.

    In fact, people will become increasingly desperate to sell, so if you have a wad of cash, you can call the the shots.

    You jammy git!
    Aw thanks a mill, I'm shocked to think it might actually be possible. I've been paying rent since I moved out at 18, I'm almost 24 now and just cannot believe I'll be able to give my daughter a home -fingers crossed-


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,186 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    CarMe wrote: »
    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-...

    Sorry but I have to ask what planet have you been on ?
    Do you ever watch or listen to a news or current affairs show ?
    You know those boring shows.
    CarMe wrote: »
    Really appreciate the reply thank you. If I bought a house completely with no mortgage, would I have many extra costs, ie. House insurance etc? As I said I genuinely am clueless about buying, I've been renting for years but now have a baby and I'm eager to give her a home.

    Don't be too eager to buy as it is a buyers market and prices are going only one way.
    You have solicitor costs, surveyors/engineers report on house and then ongoing annual running costs including insurance, taxes and maintenance.
    Houses always cost money as there is always something that you need to fix/upgrade or want to upgrade or change.

    Ohh and if you do have a wad of cash that could afford to purchase a house outright, even if it is a cheap one in Finglas or Balbriggan, then maybe look at not leaving it in Euros in an Irish bank.
    And gold is a bad idea since it is just another bubble.
    leonidas83 wrote: »
    ...
    Were in choppy waters at the moment and it be wise to hold off but if your looking for a definitive answer there isnt one. No one really knows whats going to happen

    Actually I can predict with 100% certainty that you, the OP and I will all die and that before that point we will pay lots of taxes. :(
    I am just a wee bit fuzzy on all the rest. :D

    I am not allowed discuss …



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,809 ✭✭✭edanto


    Spend at least 6 months reading discussions on this forum, and on http://www.thepropertypin.com/ before even thinking about buying a house.

    It's the type of decision that you really only want to be making every 15-20 years and you will mess up badly if you rush it.

    There is a quick introduction to the concepts here.
    http://web.archive.org/web/20100122182932/http://www.irishhometruths.com/guides/homebuyers (unfortunately the irishhometruths.com site is gone now, but the internet archive has a copy of it)

    Basically, you are just canon fodder if you consider buying a home without understanding yield, and how to relate the value of the house to it's potential rent.


  • Registered Users Posts: 78,400 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    jmayo wrote: »
    Sorry but I have to ask what planet have you been on ?
    Play nice.
    Oddjob wrote: »
    I'd say the chances of house prices increasing next year is about the same as the chances of your dead relative coming back from the grave.
    This is somewhat out of order.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,054 ✭✭✭Zipppy


    At least three more 'bad' budgets to go...Greek default, Italian default, Irish default ...it's all up in the air..banks not lending..only buyers are cash buyers..only ones selling are those who have to or executor sales....
    Hold on till at least next spring.....keep a close eye on the market / properties on the meantime ....best of luck :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,613 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Expect a significant discount (in the region of 20%) on Daft Asking price based on a cash purchase

    Best of Luck
    Now it has been predicted that prices are set to fall for another two years with the average asking price to hit €150,000 before the market bottoms out, according to research by housing economist Ronan Lyons of Daft.

    Mr Lyons bases his calculations on the assumption that banks will start lending again for mortgages.

    If they do not, prices will go on falling by 4pc a quarter and continue to plummet until the end of 2014, when prices will have dropped by 70pc.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-to-fall-until-2013-2896218.html

    Make sure you do plenty of research before purchasing - Here would be a good start: http://www.thepropertypin.com


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    I was out visiting my parents on Sunday and there is a new development next door to them. The queue of cars entering the place to view was scary. From what I could see, most were couples near retirement age with 1 or 2 middle aged families and 1 young couple. The stream of people was constant over the course of the afternoon. Where are these people getting the money from or are they just career house viewers?

    Anyway, I did a bit of digging on the developer and it turns out that it is a new company. However, it turns out that the owner is a son of a NAMA developer and his father is on the board. The rolls were reversed in the company that is in NAMA. It turns out that they are selling off the plans and they build when you pay. They have built a row of about 10 houses for display, which they have now sold apparently.

    The asking price for the 3 bed is well above the average price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    COYW wrote: »
    Anyway, I did a bit of digging on the developer and it turns out that it is a new company. However, it turns out that the owner is a son of a NAMA developer and his father is on the board. The rolls were reversed in the company that is in NAMA. It turns out that they are selling off the plans and they build when you pay. They have built a row of about 10 houses for display, which they have now sold apparently.

    :D
    The bit in bold cracked me right up.
    Anybody who gives cash to a developer for something which does not exist, needs to be locked up for their own safety.

    I think CarMe will be getting a better house in Glasnevin instead of Finglas if they hold out for another year or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,994 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    CarMe wrote: »
    Hi, I have been informed that I am in receipt of an inheritance, enough to buy a cheap 3 bed house in finglas or balbriggan from what I can tell from Daft. By the time probate etc gets done it may be this time next year before the funds get released.

    My worry is that house prices will go up again by then-I haven't a clue about these things-, can anybody shed some light on this for me? Much appreciated.

    There's nothing on the horizon to stop prices falling, if anything the price decreases will accelerate.

    I've posted this several times and is a bit old but gives a good picture of overall market:

    26 reasons by property prices will continue to decline

    A) Income taxes will rise substantially for everybody
    B) Significant Property taxes will be introduced for owners
    C) Significant Indirect tax increases- VAT/Excise
    D) Interest relief for investors will be further reduced from current 75%
    E) Rent Allowance will be decreased by some material percentage
    F) Personal Insolvencies will increase when the law is changed in their favour
    G) Continued downward wage pressures-or no pay increases at least till 2015
    H) As competition in Banking is reduced then mortgage margins will rise
    I) Emigration will continue by current and future potential homeowners
    J) NAMA releasing finished properties onto the market mopping up demand
    K) ECB raising interest rates to normal levels once Europe crises recovers, ie by 1%-3%
    L) Property owners/investors in tight financial straits will be forced to sell
    M) People realise that property in Ireland is still expensive vs other countries
    N) More builders are put into receivership and properties are sold at large discounts - don't forget there are 300,000 empty properties
    O) Rising fuel prices decrease disposable income and discourage commuting
    P) The Croke Park agreement falls apart and public sector pay falls
    Q) Unemployment rises and
    R) Loss of economic sovereignty
    T) Deflation or very low inflation causes debt to have to be repaid in full rather than inflated away at lenders expense.
    U) Stiffer regulation forces banks to provide mortgages with more caution
    V) Interbank lending to Irish Banks does not return to pre-crisis levels and the Banks have to price margins very conservatively-A given
    W) Building costs decline further as NERA is disbanded and new build houses can be profitably sold for less.
    X) Development land has plummeted so land costs can lead to further downward pressure on prices of future developments.
    Y) Commercial rents continue to decline and contagion negative pressures apply to residential rents leading to lower property asking prices
    Z) Contrarily the current booming birth rate will provide demand in 25 years time-for subsidised housing at the least

    You can add the eurozone crises etc to that now too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭bryaner


    Zamboni wrote: »
    :D
    The bit in bold cracked me right up.
    Anybody who gives cash to a developer for something which does not exist, needs to be locked up for their own safety.

    I think CarMe will be getting a better house in Glasnevin instead of Finglas if they hold out for another year or so.

    I think they would be kept in a lab and tested, there could only be one or two of this species..;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,879 ✭✭✭D3PO


    COYW wrote: »
    I was out visiting my parents on Sunday and there is a new development next door to them. The queue of cars entering the place to view was scary. From what I could see, most were couples near retirement age with 1 or 2 middle aged families and 1 young couple. The stream of people was constant over the course of the afternoon. Where are these people getting the money from or are they just career house viewers?

    Anyway, I did a bit of digging on the developer and it turns out that it is a new company. However, it turns out that the owner is a son of a NAMA developer and his father is on the board. The rolls were reversed in the company that is in NAMA. It turns out that they are selling off the plans and they build when you pay. They have built a row of about 10 houses for display, which they have now sold apparently.

    The asking price for the 3 bed is well above the average price.

    must be an EA who else would peddal this kind of bullsh*t ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    D3PO wrote: »
    must be an EA who else would peddal this kind of bullsh*t ?

    Erm, is that directed at me? Take a look at the Software dev forum and you will see that I am not an EA. I was pointing out that there are mugs out there who are still playing the property game. Don't own a house or apt myself, happy to rent away.


  • Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭ravendude


    COYW wrote: »
    I was out visiting my parents on Sunday and there is a new development next door to them. The queue of cars entering the place to view was scary. From what I could see, most were couples near retirement age with 1 or 2 middle aged families and 1 young couple. The stream of people was constant over the course of the afternoon. Where are these people getting the money from or are they just career house viewers?

    Anyway, I did a bit of digging on the developer and it turns out that it is a new company. However, it turns out that the owner is a son of a NAMA developer and his father is on the board. The rolls were reversed in the company that is in NAMA. It turns out that they are selling off the plans and they build when you pay. They have built a row of about 10 houses for display, which they have now sold apparently.

    The asking price for the 3 bed is well above the average price.

    It means very little.
    People just love to gawk, - at showhouses in particular, it doesn't even mean they are prospective buyers, or even in a position to buy if they wanted to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,140 ✭✭✭deadduck


    There's nothing on the horizon to stop prices falling, if anything the price decreases will accelerate.

    I've posted this several times and is a bit old but gives a good picture of overall market:

    26 reasons by property prices will continue to decline

    A) Income taxes will rise substantially for everybody
    B) Significant Property taxes will be introduced for owners
    C) Significant Indirect tax increases- VAT/Excise
    D) Interest relief for investors will be further reduced from current 75%
    E) Rent Allowance will be decreased by some material percentage
    F) Personal Insolvencies will increase when the law is changed in their favour
    G) Continued downward wage pressures-or no pay increases at least till 2015
    H) As competition in Banking is reduced then mortgage margins will rise
    I) Emigration will continue by current and future potential homeowners
    J) NAMA releasing finished properties onto the market mopping up demand
    K) ECB raising interest rates to normal levels once Europe crises recovers, ie by 1%-3%
    L) Property owners/investors in tight financial straits will be forced to sell
    M) People realise that property in Ireland is still expensive vs other countries
    N) More builders are put into receivership and properties are sold at large discounts - don't forget there are 300,000 empty properties
    O) Rising fuel prices decrease disposable income and discourage commuting
    P) The Croke Park agreement falls apart and public sector pay falls
    Q) Unemployment rises and
    R) Loss of economic sovereignty
    T) Deflation or very low inflation causes debt to have to be repaid in full rather than inflated away at lenders expense.
    U) Stiffer regulation forces banks to provide mortgages with more caution
    V) Interbank lending to Irish Banks does not return to pre-crisis levels and the Banks have to price margins very conservatively-A given
    W) Building costs decline further as NERA is disbanded and new build houses can be profitably sold for less.
    X) Development land has plummeted so land costs can lead to further downward pressure on prices of future developments.
    Y) Commercial rents continue to decline and contagion negative pressures apply to residential rents leading to lower property asking prices
    Z) Contrarily the current booming birth rate will provide demand in 25 years time-for subsidised housing at the least

    You can add the eurozone crises etc to that now too.

    I was wondering if you'd be along to post this. Not one, not two, but 26 (or 27 if you count your new addition) reasons prices don't look to be heading up for any time soon. You really can't post this in enough threads, it should be stickied tbh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,196 ✭✭✭quaalude


    COYW wrote: »
    I was out visiting my parents on Sunday and there is a new development next door to them. The queue of cars entering the place to view was scary. From what I could see, most were couples near retirement age with 1 or 2 middle aged families and 1 young couple. The stream of people was constant over the course of the afternoon. Where are these people getting the money from or are they just career house viewers?

    Anyway, I did a bit of digging on the developer and it turns out that it is a new company. However, it turns out that the owner is a son of a NAMA developer and his father is on the board. The rolls were reversed in the company that is in NAMA. It turns out that they are selling off the plans and they build when you pay. They have built a row of about 10 houses for display, which they have now sold apparently.

    The asking price for the 3 bed is well above the average price.

    Where is this, COYW?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    quaalude wrote: »
    Where is this, COYW?

    Co. Kildare


  • Registered Users Posts: 436 ✭✭Spiritofthekop


    ravendude wrote: »
    It means very little.
    People just love to gawk, - at showhouses in particular, it doesn't even mean they are prospective buyers, or even in a position to buy if they wanted to.

    Its actually a hobby for loads of people.

    Truthfully.


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