Turning colder from Monday - wintry showers on high ground

Iancar29

Ok folks! .. I gonna throw in an arm and a leg for this one. :rolleyes:

Current trends are showing a cool down from Sunday onwards ,
in the northern areas temps could be a max of only 8/9 o C .Frost and the first sub zero temps seem likely.





Current models are showing the potential for some wintry showers on high ground on Wednesday/ Wednesday night. Will be interesting to see how the cold front coming through actually pans out. Alot of reports of snow / sleet could turn out to be hail once again . SO boardsies in the North.... EYES PEALED!

Thoughts and comments from more EXPERIENCED snow forecasters ... "HINT HINT DM2 "


LET THE EXCITEMENT BEGIN !

Su Campu

Dare I mention the possibility of a P**** L** forming in the cold northerly flow south of Iceland during the week. 500 hPa temperatures around -35 °C may be low enough at this early stage of the season, with seas still at their warmest.

There's more here

muckish

Iancar29 wrote: »

SO boardsies in the North.... EYES PEALED!

Remember any reports to be accompanied by photographic evidence to save all the sensational outbursts and the likes!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Su Campu wrote: »

Dare I mention the possibility of a P**** L** forming in the cold northerly flow south of Iceland during the week. 500 hPa temperatures around -35 °C may be low enough at this early stage of the season, with seas still at their warmest.

There's more here

Dare my friend, DARE ! :pac:

Harps

GFS going for snow to fall in the north west!



Maybe on the top of Mt Errigal but I cant see anything much lower than that, we get -4 temps plenty of times from PM lows throughout the winter that don't give any real snow. If you swapped the height of the Donegal and Kerry mountains it'd be a different story but unfortunately nothing higher than 800m around here!

Still, the first real chance of the season, will definitely be keeping an eye out if I'm anywhere near the mountains

Deep Easterly

The actual cold front that is forecast to affect Ireland on Monday morning/afternoon has the potential to be quite nasty:



Could be some squally conditions in places as it moves through.

Su Campu

I'd worry about snow from the north when we have reports of temperatures above 30 °C in the Faroe Islands! :rolleyes:

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=015W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2011&mes=10&day=15&hora=15&min=0&vte=Te

Su Campu

Thetonynator was right, there was already a thread running on this cold snap so I've moved Ian's thread over to this one.

Pangea

It said on the forecast that Monday will be a washout with squally conditions.

Deep Easterly

This chart shows the 11 year average (00-10) of daily MSLP and mean temperature values at Belmullet for the month of October:


Data: Ogimet.

Based on this 11 year average, the 20th of October is statistically the coldest day of the month with a daily mean of 9.5c. Interesting to note also that daily mean sea level pressure values tend to (statistically) fall sharply during the 2nd half of the month.

What is really interesting though is that generally speaking, the October 2011 trend for both elements seems to be following this 11 year mean pattern so far.

sparrowcar

Home from a day on the booze watching Liverpool v UTD and straight onto the weather forum.... How sad or cool is that????:rolleyes::)

Deep Easterly

sparrowcar wrote: »

watching Liverpool v UTD

= sad

sparrowcar wrote: »

straight onto the weather forum

= cool

sparrowcar

Deep Easterly wrote: »

= sad



= cool

I'll give you that one only cause I'm too drunk to come up with an intelligent response in the state I'm in! :o

pauldry

As the Board Safety Authority says

Never ever Drink and Post

NIALL D

pauldry wrote: »

As the Board Safety Authority says

Never ever Drink and Post

yeah , a drunk postman can be pretty dangerous :pac:

Harps

Consistent upgrades on the gfs over the past few days for wind strength, looking like quite a stormy day for us in the north

Iancar29

Slight upgrade as to a larger area potential for some wintry showers on Wednesday , would LOVE to a snow covered Kippure this early
Its a long shot though

Su Campu

Im getting rightly peed off with the amount of new winter/snow threads that are popping up daily at this stage.

STOP STARTING NEW THREADS WHEN THERE ARE ALREADY FOUR DEALING WITH WINTER / SNOW. :mad:

Any new threads on snow will be deleted as soon as they pop up so please stop wasting your and our time.

Deep Easterly

Evelyn mentioned earlier on the farming forecast that there could be gusts of up to 70mph (esp in coastal regions) as the tomorrow's cold front pushes over the country. Some very heavy rain forecast as well, esp for the NW but all areas at risk. Could be one to watch.

Iancar29

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Evelyn mentioned earlier on the farming forecast that there could be gusts of up to 70mph (esp in coastal regions) as the tomorrow's cold front pushes over the country. Some very heavy rain forecast as well, esp for the NW but all areas at risk. Could be one to watch.

Imagine the cold came early?! .... i'd be here chanting away ....


B - L - I Z Z - ARD ! ! ...* CLAPS* B - L - I Z Z - ARD.... B - L ...


....:rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

Imagine the cold came early?! .... i'd be here chanting away ....


B - L - I Z Z - ARD ! ! ...* CLAPS* B - L - I Z Z - ARD.... B - L ...


....:rolleyes:

I just want some thunder and lightning! . Snow and blizzards will only ever be 2nd!

ninebeanrows

Tomorrows squall is going to be interesting.

Could be some hail in there aswell.

Going to be a decent temperature gradient across the country too.

The higher res shows an 11c temp gradient tomorrow evening.

Going to be a nippy night.

Madpaddy79

Warnings


Weather Warning

Issued at 16 October 2011 - 16:57
Storm Warning
Extremely windy, blustery and very wet weather will develop for a time tomorrow Monday, with strong to gale force and very gusty southwesterly winds, later veering westerly, as a spell of heavy rain clears.
Gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are likely in many areas, but values could reach 120 km/hr in exposed parts of the east and south.
Some thundery downpours are likely, with spot flooding, with the rain expected to be heaviest over Connacht and Ulster, (up to 25 / 40 mm).

Valid 17/0900 to 17/1800.

fizzycyst

Wrong chart??

Harps

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Warnings


Weather Warning

Issued at 16 October 2011 - 16:57
Storm Warning
Extremely windy, blustery and very wet weather will develop for a time tomorrow Monday, with strong to gale force and very gusty southwesterly winds, later veering westerly, as a spell of heavy rain clears.
Gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are likely in many areas, but values could reach 120 km/hr in exposed parts of the east and south.
Some thundery downpours are likely, with spot flooding, with the rain expected to be heaviest over Connacht and Ulster, (up to 25 / 40 mm).

Valid 17/0900 to 17/1800.

Doesn't sound right

North and west surely?

Su Campu

No, it's correct. The strongest gradient's going to be to the south and east of the frontal wave as it moves through the northwest.

Deep Easterly

I opened up a separate thread on tomorrow's squallly potential. Possibly a bit hasty but here it is anyways:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056422599

Harps

Su Campu wrote: »

No, it's correct. The strongest gradient's going to be to the south and east of the frontal wave as it moves through the northwest.

Yep just went to check it out there, chance of 60+ knot gusts for the east coast then it seems!

Forum Monkey

Yay! Days off school!!!

thetonynator

Forum Monkey wrote: »

Yay! Days off school!!!

Why can't you go to school if its windy?